After a one-sided defeat to Jon Jones, failed two-time Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight title contender, Ciryl Gane, returns to friendly territory inside Accor Arena when he battles Serghei Spivac this Saturday (Sept. 2, 2023) in Paris, France. UFC Paris’ ravaged lineup also sees local favorite, Manon Fiorot, welcome Rose Namajunas to the women’s Flyweight division and Benoit Saint-Denis look for his fourth straight win against reliable veteran, Thiago Moises.
It’s never too early in the day to gamble, so let’s see what this afternoon show has to offer ...
Well, Errens almost had him. I didn’t expect him to struggle that badly with range or succumb to a takedown from Choi, who looked a fair bit more composed than he has in ages.
He got smashed before he could get any grappling going. Tafa looked much more patient than against Usman, so his hips weren’t there for Porter to grab, and Porter just couldn’t stand up to his power.
Man, I genuinely do not know what happened there. He was smiling and trading heat for 15 minutes against Khaos Williams but just seemed to check out after five against Song. Baffling performance.
I said going in that it was going to be a firefight. I thought Kinoshita could take Goff’s best shot and Goff couldn’t take Kinoshita’s best shot. I was wrong.
What Went Right?
It was never in doubt. Zombie couldn’t hurt him and had too much mileage on him to survive what came back his way.
One more bailout. Might as well keep trying; haven’t completely wiped out the good from a few years ago yet.
UFC Paris Odds For The Under Card:
Morgan Charriere (-340) vs. Manolo Zecchini (+270)
I honestly don’t think Zecchini is getting quite enough credit here. He’s fast, he hits hard, and he has great takedown defense. Still, I don’t see Charriere losing this; between his experience, power, and durability, odds are he’ll decisively punish Zecchini’s aggression. The only concern is Charriere’s tendency towards passivity, which shouldn’t flare up here with Zecchini bringing the fight to him.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-375) vs. Zarah Fairn (+295)
Probably a bit too wide to be worth much. Fairn is terrible and nearly 15 years older than Cavalcanti, but the latter is also untested and taking this on short notice.
Joselyne Edwards (-112) vs. Nora Cornolle (-108)
Edwards has gone to two consecutive split decisions; her all-volume, no-power style isn’t built to produce decisive victories, so even if I give her a slight edge over the hittable Cornolle, I’d rather not get money involved.
Ange Loosa (-180) vs. Rhys McKee (+150)
Loosa really should win this. McKee doesn’t utilize his length particularly well, instead relying on volume to steadily break opponents down. That leaves him open to return fire, which the faster, heavier-handed Loosa will offer om spades. McKee lacks the technical acumen to defuse Loosa the way Jack Della Maddalena and Mounir Lazzez did, so expect him to get battered something fierce.
Farid Basharat (-325) vs. Kleydson Rodrigues (+260)
Honestly, Rodrigues is much better than he’s given credit for and Basharat didn’t look great against Da’Mon Blackshear last time. I’m still picking Basharat, but he should be -250 at the very most, so steer clear.
Caolan Loughran (N/A) vs. Taylor Lapilus (N/A)
Odds aren’t out at time of writing. Lapilus is worth a look if the lines end up better than -150; Loughran’s a tank, but he’s a very short-range tank going up against a skilled sniper.
UFC Paris Odds For The Main Card:
Cyril Gane (-166) vs. Serghei Spivac (+140)
Spivac’s body of work doesn’t stand up to scrutiny — the best of them were Derrick Lewis and a lethargic Tai Tuivasa. At the same time, I don’t see how you can watch Gane’s recent fights and trust him against a wrestler. Therefore, a bit on Spivac makes sense.
Manon Fiorot (-185) vs. Rose Namajunas (+154)
It’s too close to call, especially since Rose has been out for almost 16 months and we don’t know how she’ll look in a new weight class.
Benoit Saint-Denis (-155) vs. Thiago Moises (+130)
This is Saint-Denis’ toughest Lightweight test to date, but it’s plenty winnable. Though Moises has improved during his UFC tenure, strong takedown artists have been a consistent bugbear for him. With how easily Saint-Denis sliced through Ismael Bonfim’s solid takedown defense, “God of War” has the means to capitalize. Plus, Saint-Denis also has a decent amount of height and reach on him, so the striking shouldn’t go poorly, either.
Volkan Oezdemir (-185) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+154)
Guskov just isn’t very good. His best opponent to date was a bloated Welterweight who knocked Guskov silly in 2020. Though Oezdemir’s lost three of four, two of those were against top five Light Heavyweights. He’s still got the striking chops to piece up the defensively inept Guskov.
William Gomis (N/A) vs. Yanis Ghemmouri (N/A)
There are no odds out at time of writing. But, go for Gomis if you can get him at better than -300 (Ghemmouri is too flat-footed to catch him).
UFC Paris Best Bets:
- Parlay — Morgan Charriere and Benoit Saint-Denis : Bet $80 to make $90.32
- Single bet — Serghei Spivac: Bet $60 to make $82.40
- Single bet — Ange Loosa: Bet $90 to make $50
- Single bet — Volkan Oezdemir: Bet $70 to make $37.83
Hopefully, there’ll still be a card left by the time the gambling starts. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Initial Investment For 2023: $600
April Bailout: $400
August Bailout: $500
Current Total: $505
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Paris fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 3 p.m. ET.
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