After a brief sojourn to the Great White North, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday (June 17, 2023) for a clash of Middleweight contenders between Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier. UFC Apex will also host the return of Arman Tsarukyan opposite Joaquim Silva and unbeaten prospect Christian Leroy Duncan’s stiffest test to date against Contender Series graduate, Armen Petrosyan.
With the NBA and NHL finals done, your betting options are limited, but that doesn’t mean we can’t make a profit. Let’s take a look ...
The “No Contest” resulted in a refund instead of a loss, which “The Action Man” was almost certainly heading toward. Nassourdine Imvavov looked quite a bit sharper and more composed than he had against Sean Strickland, leaving Curtis unable to consistently close the gap and get his boxing going.
Durability has never been among Aoriqileng’s flaws. Even a perfect shot from Jeff Molina failed to put him down for good, but it turns out that one-punch counter finish of Drako Rodriguez wasn’t a one-off thing.
She started strong, but as soon as she flubbed a takedown in the second round and Jasudavicius picked up steam on the feet, it was all downhill from there. I’m sure the eye injury didn’t help.
What Went Right?
Amanda Nunes, Diana Belbita and Dan Ige
All three performed up to expectations, even if Ige did slow down a bit down the stretch.
UFC Vegas 75 Odds For The Under Card:
Muslim Salikhov (-190) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+160)
Might as well put a bit down on Salikhov. Dalby gets dropped with worrying regularity and has been touched up by lesser strikers than “The King of Kung-Fu.”
Alessandro Costa (-255) vs. Jimmy Flick (+215)
The lines are a bit too wide for my taste. That’s because there’s not enough value in Costa when Flick can hit a finish from anywhere, not enough value in Flick when Costa can turn his lights out with one shot.
Cristian Quinonez (-165) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (+140)
Though Kang is a live dog, he’s so prone to questionable decision-making that I’d rather leave this fight alone.
Denys Bondar (-130) vs. Carlos Hernandez (+110)
Small bet on Bondar is an idea. His smothering, high-pressure grappling attack looks like just the trick against Hernandez, who gave up five takedowns on Contender Series and two more in his recent loss to Allan Nascimento.
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-155) vs. Felipe Bunes (+135)
Zhumagulov pissed off some kind of malevolent deity that ensured he’ll never get a fair shake from the judges, so I’d advise against betting on his fights.
Tereza Bleda (-245) vs. Gabriella Fernandes (+205)
Fernandes was so helpless off of her back against Jasmine Jasudavicius that it’s hard to turn down another grappling specialist in Bleda, even with that rough loss to Natalia Silva behind her.
Ronnie Lawrence (-190) vs. Dan Argueta (+150)
I do think Lawrence is the better overall fighter, especially on the feet, but the way Saidyokub Kakhramonov neutralized him makes me hesitant to bet on him against another smothering wrestler.
Modestas Bukauskas (-200) vs. Zac Pauga (+170)
Pauga doesn’t hit hard enough or wrestle well enough to exploit Bukauskas’ most pressing weaknesses and somehow contrived to get knocked out by Mohammed Usman. Though he has an outside chance of grinding Bukauskas to death against the fence, Bukauskas is so well-seasoned that he’s worth an investment.
UFC Vegas 75 Odds For The Main Card:
Marvin Vettori (-110) vs. Jared Cannonier (-110)
Cannonier is someone I’ve long struggled to accurately appraise and Vettori looked much shakier than expected against Roman Dolidze last time out. I say leave this one be.
Arman Tsarukyan (-1050) vs. Joaquim Silva (+700)
I mean yeah, Tsarukyan’s going to torch Silva, but slapping him in a parlay to get a few extra cents just feels like tempting fate.
Christian Leroy Duncan (-140) vs. Armen Petrosyan (+120)
I’ve argued before that Duncan’s grab-bag striking style would struggle against a better-schooled kickboxer, so a small bet on Petrosyan makes sense, especially since Duncan isn’t much of a wrestler.
Pat Sabatini (-180) vs. Lucas Almeida (+155)
Go for a small-to-moderate bet on Sabatini. Almeida’s stance opens him up to takedowns, and Sabatini regularly racks up double-digit attempts. Sabatini does have a tendency to get cracked early, though, so don’t go nuts.
Manuel Torres (-180) vs. Nikolas Motta (+155)
Slap a bit down on Motta. Torres’ looping swings open him up to the power counters that are “Iron’s” trademark, and Motta’s strength of schedule far outstrips Torres.’ Just don’t break the bank, as Motta can be a bit chinny despite the nickname.
Raoni Barcelos (-215) vs. Miles Johns (+185)
As I said in my “Prelims” piece, a functional Barcelos eats Johns alive, boasting better boxing, more effective mixed martial arts (MMA) wrestling, and far better submissions. Though there’s a question as to how much the Brazilian has left in the tank, he’s more than good enough to beat the gun-shy Johns.
UFC Vegas 75 Best Bets
- Parlay — Tereza Bleda and Raoni Barcelos: Bet $60 to make $63.60
- Single bet — Armen Petrosyan: Bet $40 to make $48
- Single bet — Nikolas Motta: Bet $40 to make $62
- Parlay — Pat Sabatini and Muslim Salikhov: Bet $35 to make $47.95
- Parlay — Modestas Bukauskas and Denys Bondar: Bet $35 to make $57.75
UFC Vegas 75 features some decent scraps, though Mick Maynard really does need to answer for that Tsarukyan vs. Silva pairing. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Initial Investment For 2023: $600
April Bailout: $400
Current Total: $582.26
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 75 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN/ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.
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