Bantamweight shows off its insane depth once again this Saturday (March 11, 2023) when former interim champion, Petr Yan, and perpetual takedown machine, Merab Dvalishvili, battle it out inside The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, Nevada. In UFC Las Vegas’ co-headliner, Alexander Volkov looks to build off his impressive knockout of Jairzinho Rozenstruik at Alexandr Romanov’s expense, while Nikita Krylov battles Ryan Spann in a rescheduled Light Heavyweight showdown.
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What Went Wrong at UFC 285?
Farid Basharat, Dricus Du Plessis and Tabatha Ricci
Basharat definitely underperformed a bit, but smooth sailing otherwise.
The writing was on the wall as soon as she tried that guillotine. I fully believe she’d have beaten Ribas if she’d fought a composed fight, but that early error and the way she deflated after getting clipped in the second doomed her. She’s off my betting list.
Man, what do you even say about that?
UFC Las Vegas Odds For ‘Prelims” Undercard:
Karl Williams (-200) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+170)
Definitely give me Williams here, though I’d have preferred he stay under -200. He’s the better athlete, the sharper boxer, and ostensibly the superior wrestler. Brzeski has the edge in volume and Heavyweight experience, but that’s about it.
Davey Grant (-135) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+115)
Assuncao surprised a lot of people, myself included, when he defused a red-hot Victor Henry last time out. He’s got a decent shot at doing the same here, but Grant’s got heavier hands and a more committed body attack than Henry. Worth a look at near-even odds, I’d say.
Sedriques Dumas (-180) vs. Josh Fremd (+155)
It’s not Dumas’ string of first-round finishes that make me think he’ll handle Fremd. It’s his one-sided, grappling-heavy decision over Aaron Highbaugh two fights back. Fremd’s takedown defense has been a consistent thorn in his side during his UFC tenure, a significant-enough flaw to earn Dumas my pick despite the striking being largely even.
Mario Bautista (-975) vs. Guida Cannetti (+675)
I mean, hell, why not put Bautista in a parlay if you’re desperate for a bit of extra juice? He’s 14 years younger than Cannetti and better than him in every aspect of the sport.
Victor Henry (-140) vs. Tony Gravely (+120)
Too close to call. While Gravely is inconsistent and prone to falling apart, he’s also a much better wrestler than Henry and possesses much faster, more powerful hands. Skip it.
JJ Aldrich (-320) vs. Ariane Lipski (+265)
Continuing to believe in Lipski has become akin to Homer insisting that his runaway barbecued pig is “still good.” While she definitely has the power that got us so excited in the first place, the rest of her game just can’t seem to catch up. Knowing my luck, this’ll be the fight where she finally turns things around, but I think Aldrich’s reliability and ability to exploit Lipski’s lackluster ground game are enough to get a nod.
Bruno Silva (-195) vs. Tyson Nam (+165)
It’s a Tyson Nam fight; either he’s going to knock Silva out or get outworked to a decision loss. I do think Silva is versatile and powerful enough to give Nam fits, so I’m willing to invest in him, but keep it small due to Silva’s layoff and Nam’s one-shot power.
UFC Las Vegas Odds For Main Card:
Petr Yan (-250) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+210)
I’m definitely with Yan in a five-rounder. Dvalishvili doesn’t have the long-range striking or impeccable back control that Aljamain Sterling used to beat Yan in their rematch; he’s more about aggression, high-volume takedowns, and scrambles, all of which Yan has proven he can handle for 25 minutes. Yan’s too sharp, too powerful, and too well-conditioned to succumb to Dvalishvili’s grind.
Alexandr Romanov (-155) vs. Alexander Volkov (+135)
Skip it. Romanov has the tools to overpower Volkov on the ground, but whether that bizarre performance against Marcin Tybura was due to unfixed cardio, the high altitude, or just poor decision-making, I’m not willing to bank on him.
Nikita Krylov (-170) vs. Ryan Spann (+145)
As I said last time, I don’t want any part of a fight between these two messes.
Ricardo Ramos (-365) vs. Austin Lingo (+300)
I’ve never been hugely impressed with Lingo, who’s fairly limited in terms of striking technique and has struggled on the mat. Stuff the much more versatile Ramos in a parlay, though keep it mild because of Lingo’s layoff.
Said Nurmagomedov (-240) vs. Jonathan Martinez (+200)
Skip it. This is almost a mirror match in terms of general striking styles, and though Nurmagomedov has the edge in durability and submissions, Martinez is dangerous enough that this is best avoided.
Vitor Petrino (-110) vs. Anton Turkalj (-110)
I really like Petrino here at close odds. Beyond the fact that he’s a nasty puncher and Turkalj has leaky defense, “Icao” took out another ultra-focused grinder in Gadzhimurad Antigulov two fights back, so it’s not like he hasn’t dealt with Turkalj’s style before.
UFC Las Vegas Best Bets:
- Parlay — Karl Williams and Petr Yan: Bet $40 to make $44
- Parlay — Sedriques Dumas and J.J. Aldrich: Bet $30 to make $31.20
- Parlay — Ricardo Ramos and Bruno Silva: Bet $32.70 to make $30
- Parlay — Mario Bautista and Vitor Petrino: Bet $40 to make $44
- Single bet — Davey Grant: Bet $30 to make $22.22
There’s nothing quite like “Striker vs. Grappler” at the highest level imaginable. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Initial Investment For 2023: $600
Current Total: $185.09
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Las Vegas fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 3 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 6 p.m. ET.
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