Spivak vs. Lewis Main Card Breakdown

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Before we can know where we're headed, we have to take a look back and acknowledge where we've been. A look back at another Glover Teixeira banger and the Bob Ross masterpiece it took to beat him. Like Boris The Bullet Dodger, Glover wouldn’t die, wouldn’t succumb to the KO Basquiat’s prodigal strokes. After three rounds, Glover looked like the Exorcist girl, like he spent hours in the makeup chair preparing for the head-turning scene. But he still kept coming, begging for more. One last time. Glover is still in Brazil at the all you can eat buffet devouring endless head kicks like Homer at closing, refusing to leave.

For twenty-five minutes, Jamahal Hill was on some Ghost In The Darkness type-shit, hunting the old lion who had preyed on so many over the years. But even Dr. Sleep, the cure for insomnia held tightly within each fist, couldn’t rock the forty-three-year-old to sleep. Hill had to take the Kit-Carson-on-the-frontier path to victory, and I’m sure he wouldn’t have had it any other way.

Now there remain no doubts; Jamahal Hill is the best light heavyweight in the world, and the questions I had about any holes in his game have all been answered. For Jamahal Hill, it was a trial by fire, and he showed up wearing gasoline boots and a kerosene jumpsuit. Somebody will beat Jamahal, all Champions eventually fall, but it will be more than a pound of flesh he takes. That somebody will come away looking like Christian Bale in The Machinist and collapse under the weight of the belt placed around their waist. Next up… Jiri Prochazka.

Main Card

Sergey Spivak vs. Derrick Lewis

Déjà vu. Let's try this main event again.

Sloth from Goonies is back and facing the perennial underdog legend Derrick Lewis.

This is the type of scrap that x16 fast-forward was created for. Derrick Lewis is the UFC’s most prolific KO Bansky, and Sergey Spivak is a giant galoot with more ways to spell his name than Alexy Oleynik. The rare heavyweight grappler vs. striker matchup, this fight is all but guaranteed to end before the final bell, either by a vintage Derrick Lewis vaporizing KO or a Seghei Spivak old-school ground and pounding. Ground and pounding? Sir, this is a family establishment.

Derrick Lewis needs no introduction, and if he does, you’re probably here because you have a Weekly KO Groupon for a free newsletter and likely have no idea what MMA stands for. But, welcome, nonetheless. No one in UFC history has more KO’s than Derrick Lewis. He’s not a boxer; he’s a puncher. He’s not a fighter; he’s a brawler. Twenty-two of his twenty-six career dubs ended with his opponent hooked up to a sleep apnea machine and a Breathe Right nose strip.

Lewis’ style mirrors U.S. foreign policy, nothing but bombs. He has exceptional hand speed for a huge man that seems even faster because everything else moves in slow motion; he shambles forward like a zombie, a Night Of The Living Dead Zombie, not a 28 Days Later zombie, and unloads heavy, wide bombs that arc across the sky like comets. His game plan for every fight he’s ever been in is to keep the fight standing and swing for the fences. What he lacks in tactical prowess, Lewis more than makes up for with chloroform KO power.

The underrated part of Lewis’ game isn’t his takedown defense but his ability to get back to his feet. Well, at least until he gets tired. Lewis skips all the fundamentals, not exposing your back and such, and just stands back to his feet like he’s squatting a massive man draped over the top of him. But he only has a limited number of get-ups in his tank before he becomes a beached mammal, requiring harpoon nets and bulldozers for removal. This is the main reason why Derrick Lewis will be starring in a familiar role against Sergei Spivak, the mangy, rabid underdog dripping value all over your freshly Swiffer’d floor. The value for Lewis is and always will be a sudden end to any fight at any time, even if he hasn’t won a minute of it leading up to that point.

Sergey Spivak is kind of a sleeper in the heavyweight division. There’s nothing flashy about him; he’s far from explosive, fast, agile, or athletic, but if you allow him to get too close and get a hand on you, an ass whooping is sure to ensue. On the feet Spivak has decent boxing, including a stiff jab and a fight-ending right hand, but he has AOL dial-up hand speed, like when you’d call the homie, and his line would be busy while he plays StarCraft for six hours. Defensively, Spivak doesn’t use any evasive maneuvers and is stiff and really only uses his stand-up to close the distance and score takedowns.

Spivak has a variety of takedowns, from traditional double legs, to trips and sneaky little hip tosses in the clinch. Once he’s on top, it’s like waking up with sleep paralysis, and no matter what you do, you can’t get up. He’s heavy, and not just because of his weight; Spivak knows how to leverage his mass and make the opponent carry the bulk of it, wearing them down in the process. Sergey uses a mixture of position control and intermittent ground and pound and can finish the fight with strikes and with subs.

For his career, Spivak is 15-3 with seven career TKO/KO’s and six subs. He's a finisher and averages just over three and a half significant strikes landed per minute, with a high of seventy-three in a three-round fight. He also averages four takedowns per fifteen minutes, and his value will be in a mid to late-fight finish.

Spivak will be the (-200) favorite, while Lewis will come in as the (+160) dog. I’ve traveled around the world on G5 jets and stayed in the world’s most luxurious hotels betting on Lewis as an underdog. He’s one of the most valuable dogs of all time. Even when he’s catching a complete ass whooping, he can pull out a Leon Edwards walk-off. Lewis’ only means of victory is a TKO/KO finish, and that outcome will return (+165) odds. Spivak’s means to victory will also be a finish, but the gamble is whether he finishes it by sub or TKO/KO; a submission will return (+325) and a TKO/KO (+145). Spivak has been KO’d twice in his career, and while Lewis has only been submitted once, he has been KO’d seven times.

We’re streaking. The main event dub streak is now at two after Jamahal Hill’s epic UFC 283 dub. And so far, the 2023 pick ‘em’s have been hotter than the Kneehigh Park puppets. Put it on wax: Sergey Spivak via TKO, round three.

Da Un Jung vs. Devin Clark

It’s about to get super ugly from here on out. This card is hard to look at; you have to kind of side-eye it and hope you don’t turn to stone. This shit is Li Jingliang ugly. This shit is ugly, like when you roll to Applebee’s happy hour with Goose, your favorite wingman, and he refuses to jump on the grenade at the bar. But ugly scraps need love too. So we carry on.

This one right here should be a classic striker vs. wrestler matchup. I say should because Devin Clark doesn’t always stick to the script and fight to his strengths. "Lewis &" Devin Clark prefers to travel a Grapes Of Wrath path to victory, usually taking scenic routes through dense ass whoopings and rugged beatings before finding his way back on course. His classic scrap against Alonzo Menifield is a great example of the detours Clark likes to take during a fight. His bread and butter is his powerful wrestling, but he often relents to standing and trading bombs for long stretches.

If you play hot potato with a grenade, it will eventually go off. His striking is just good enough, and his power is just scary enough to stand with most fighters. But his lack of technical skills ensures he always engages in 50/50 exchanges. Coin flips. And his 7-7 UFC record reflects that. Clark has a massive right hand and basic 2-3/3-2 combinations in his repertoire, but not much after that. Defensively he is stiff and lacks footwork and movement, but he has power that can bail him out of a sticky situation. But there’s no doubt Clark’s game plan should be to get the fight to the mat early and often.

Devin Clark is one of those ultimate gambles; a life is like a box of chocolates type of fighter. You never know what Devin Clark you’re gonna get. Often times a Hollywood street performer version of Devin Clark shows up and looks like he should be fighting Spider-Mans and Power Rangers on the Walk Of Fame and not killers like Ryan Spann and Anthony Smith in an octagon.

Fantasy-wise, Clark will be a solid low-tier pick-up if he can get Jung to the mat. Clark is a low-output striker, averaging less than three significant strikes landed per minute but also averages nearly two and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes. The biggest downside for Clark, though, is he isn’t much of a finisher. For his career, Clark is 13-7 with only four TKO/KO’s and one sub. He will have to grind out this fight from the top position or rely on Hail Mary right hands on the feet.

When it comes to finishing fights, Da Un Jung is the opposite of Devin Clark. Jung is 15-3 for his career with eleven TKO/KO’s and two subs. This could turn into a battle of right hands in the trenches. Da’s right hand is an Arnold Schwarzenegger Eraser, and head to head against Clark’s right hand, I’ll take Jung’s every time. Pay attention to Jung’s lead hand; he likes to poke and prod with it and manipulate the opponent’s lead hand, pulling it down or holding it while he lines up the kill shot. He also uses his lead hand, like Captain America’s shield, using it to deflect strikes and remain in the pocket.

Jung’s major malfunction? He has sasquatch feet; he wears cement shoes and sleeps with the fishes. Jung lacks movement and often looks like your controller disconnected in the middle of playing Mortal Kombat. He will literally stand stationary without moving a muscle in front of the opponent. Combinations are his kryptonite; he can’t defend third and fourth-level strikes. Fortunately for Jung, Devin Clark rarely gets that deep into combinations.

Fantasy-wise, Jung’s upside is a finish on the feet. Don’t let his two-and-a-half takedowns per fifteen minutes fool you. In six UFC bouts, he only scored a takedown in one of those fights. He landed eight takedowns against the crime scene chalk outline with Rigor Mortis guard William Knight. The longer the fight goes, the more likely it will be that Jung will land his right hand and end the fight early.

Da Un Jung is the (-235) favorite, and Devin Clark is the (-190) dog. You can get plus money (+120) for the fight going the distance or going past two and a half rounds (+115). As the dog and low-tier Fantasy cap hit, Clark will have solid value. He can win this fight if he doesn’t stand and bang for its duration. He can also play Russian roulette, spin the barrel, and take his chances trading shots. A Da Un Jung TKO will return (+140) odds, and a Clark TKO/KO will return (+500). But I’m taking Da Un Jung via TKO, round three. On wax.

Marcin Tybura vs. Blagoy Ivanov

This scrap is about as sexy as beige Ross clearance lingerie. About as sexy as swamp ass when the lights are dimmed and the sandalwood Yankee candles are lit. Marcin Tybura is a C student, an average fighter with a Cap’n-Crunch-without-the-crunch-berries plain style. And Blagoy Ivanov is built like Tony Soprano but lacks the killer instinct. This one will likely be a sloppy slobber knocker, extra emphasis on the slobber.

Marcin Tybura is a crafty sixteen-fight UFC veteran with an underrated resume. Tybura was the winner of six of his last seven bouts and is coming off a dub against the previously unbeaten Alexander Romanov. Tybura has solid striking and underrated grappling and is generally hard to beat. He regularly does just enough to get by. On the feet, he uses a dual stance and can get inside on bigger fighters by using step-in crosses and hooks. Marcin has Greg Maddox striking, a mid-eighties fastball, and pinpoint accuracy. He won’t overwhelm you with the heat, but he’ll paint the corners and stay ahead in the count. And on the mat, he has sneaky trip takedowns and heavy top control. For the most part, Tybura doesn’t have any glaring holes in his game.

Blagoy Ivanov is a bit of a sleeper who has recently found himself on the wrong end of some close decisions. Ivanov is built like one of those red balls outside Target that stops cars from driving into the building. He’s built like Epcot Center and has tailgating striking. Blagoy is the Bills undefeated pregame parking lot champion. A filthy southpaw, Blagoy’s striking is slow and lumbering, but he has sneaky power and a penchant for engaging in 50/50 exchanges. Ivanov has 90s movie villain stalking pressure and throws errant left hands like Brett Maher extra points. He often sets his left hand on repeat with the ten second anti skip activated, looks down at the floor, and swings for the fences.

This one will be like watching lawn mower drag races. The John Deer Grand Prix. The Golf Cart 500. This will be like watching power walking in the Olympics, featuring two guys built like Curling athletes. Tybura will be the (-150) favorite, and Ivanov will be the (+125) dog. For his career, Tybura has been a solid finisher with fifteen finishes in twenty-three career wins. He can finish the fight on the mat or on the feet and has noine career TKO/KO’s and six subs. Blagoy is also a respectable finisher with six TKO/KO’s and six subs in noineteen career dubs. But Blagoy has yet to finish a fight in six UFC appearances. His value will be in landing sixty to seventy significant strikes should the fight stay standing. But at the end of the day, when it’s all said and done, I’m rolling with Marcin Tybura via decision.

Kyle Nelson vs. Doo Ho Choi

This one will be an under-the-radar filthy little stand-up banger. It’s been four years since the Korean Superboy stepped into the Octagon, following three straight wars against Cub Swanson, Jeremy Stephens (who the fook is that guy?), and Charles Jourdain. Doo Ho Choi was on the wrong side of all three of those scraps after starting his UFC career 3-0, but all that is old shit now. Onward and upward. Or, in this case, downward, as in competition. Choi will be looking to get back on track against a guy with a 1-4 UFC record, Kyle Nelson. But don’t let that record fool you; if Doo Ho Choi shows up halfway crookin’, half steppin’, Kyle Nelson has all the skills on the feet to make it four L’s in a row for the Superboy.

Doo Ho Choi looks like he wears Thomas The Train feety pajamas with Bluey underoos and sleeps in a racecar bed next to a Cocomelon nightlight. But his looks are like an Instagram filter; don’t let them fool you. Choi was a highly touted prospect even after losing three straight fights. He has fast, tight boxing with a piston right hand. His combinations are short and crisp, and his special move is the power uppercut hidden behind the 1-2. Superboy also mixes in spinning counters when under attack, retreating to draw the opponent forward before throwing a spinning back fist or elbow.

But Doo Ho Choi has a factory recall, a major malfunction. He only engages in firefights. His specialty is same-time counters, waiting for the opponent to engage and beating him to the punch, and that technique guarantees 50/50 exchanges. A Backdraft firefight is all but a certainty during a Superboy scrap. His game plan against the grimy Kyle Nelson will be to dominate the fringe of the pocket and use his speed from the outside to pick Nelson apart.

Kyle Nelson is a nasty mother-shut-your-mouth. He’s an ODB striker who throws bones all over the yard and ain’t the first MF’er who shitted on your lawn. He looks like a badass Medieval Times employee, like he slayed a dragon in a previous life. Nelson is a Chito Vera type of striker who uses all his limbs to create damage while walking down the opponent. He has heavy kicks and attacks the legs aggressively, using low calf kicks to counter forward pressure. Most of his damaging work is accomplished in the clinch, and he uses his boxing to close the distance and elbows once he’s in close. Overall, Nelson is a grinder, and he’ll have you lying in a Zig Zag glowing cherry real quick if you sleep on him.

Nelson’s biggest weakness is he’s stiff, starchy like a Khaki suit. He moves like an Etch-A-Sketch, only in straight lines, and he lacks head movement. Also, his stance is square, and his head sticks out in front of his shoulders, making him easy to hit, and getting hit is probably is strongest attribute. His game plan will be to walk through some right hands and close the distance at all cost. Nelson will have to make this a phone booth scrap in close quarters and stay in Choi’s chest.

Doo Ho Choi will be the (-190) favorite, and Nelson will be the (+155) dog. I think there is some distant value in Nelson as a dog. He finished noine of his thirteen career dubs and has been in the Octagon with some real killers. Nelson has basically been an Apocalypto sacrifice for his UFC career. If he can survive Choi’s speed early, he can work his way inside and land heavy strikes. But I don’t think the Superboy has been sitting around watching TLC reality shows for four years. Put it on wax: Doo Hoi Choi via TKO, round two.

Adam Fugitt vs. Yusaku Kinoshita

This will be another undercover stand-up banger. Adam Fugitt made his debut as the lamb in the Jurassic Park T-Rex feeding scene when he stepped in on short notice to fight Michael Morales. He was like the kid who finally stood up to the bully and punched him in the face. Only to get knocked out and bullied for the rest of the year anyways. But Fugitt showed he belonged in the Octagon and spent every second taking the fight to Morales and trying to win. Unfortunately for Fugitt, Yusaku Konoshita is another heathen who stamped his ticket to the big show with a top-five Contender Series KO. This guy Kinoshita looked like the real deal on the show, displaying intricate, well-honed striking skills. Make sure you holler at Mary Jay before this fight because it could end in highlight reel fashion.

Adam Fugitt (aboutit) looks like a Big Lots Nate Landwehr, like a seventies vacuum cleaner salesman. Fugitt has awkward kickboxing and throws at newly discovered odd angles that are hard to defend. He finds holes in the opponent’s defenses and lands long, whipping punches around the guard. His best attribute is he just goes for it. There’s no fear in his heart, and even when he was outgunned on some 300 type-shit against Morales, he rushed into battle without a single look back.

But make no mistake, this fight is about Yusaku Kinoshita. Fugitt could end up being a target hanging at the end of a gun range at some point. Kinoshita has excellent striking and reminds me a little of Gunnar Nelson on the feet but with the ability to flow seamlessly between stances. Closing the distance is what separates good strikers from elite strikers. Kinoshita not only can use pure hand speed, but he also uses forward pivots and step-ins to enter the pocket. The rear hand becomes the lead hand and creates a natural angle outside the opponent’s shoulder. He also uses boxing head movement, slip and pull-counters, and steps off at angles after an exchange.

The sneaky part of Kinoshita’s game is he’s a shit talker, a middle school Sean Strickland. He got his start in Yo Mamma battles in the lunchroom. Kinoshita likes to verbally engage as much as engage with his fists. There’s nothing like getting your ass kicked while the homie kicking it is giving Bob Costas color commentary. Before I forget, check out his KO on the Contender Series. It was one of the slickest pull-counters you will see. I felt dirty after watching it, like that AB security video.

Kinoshita will be the (-335) favorite, and Fugitt will be the mangy-ass (+255) dog. You know I love that (+250) range, and there will be some value on Fugitt. He’s 8-3 for his career with four TKO/KO’s and three subs. Fugitt is a finisher, and he can create unorthodox exchanges in the pocket. But Kinoshita’s angles will cause Fugitt problems. A long shot Figitt TKO will return (+700), and a Kinoshita TKO/KO will return (+135). Yusaku Kinoshita via TKO, round three.

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