In a rare pay-per-view (PPV) with no titles involved, the Octagon returns to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday (Sept. 10, 2022) with Khamzat Chimaev and Nate Diaz in the starring roles. Playing support at UFC 279 are Tony Ferguson’s Welterweight debut against Li Jingliang, Kevin Holland’s Catchweight grudge match with Daniel Rodriguez, and more.
This one’s as pricy as the rest, so let’s see what we can do about filling that hole in your wallet.
This was the best event in quite some time. Let’s go ...
Benoit Saint-Denis, William Gomis, Nathaniel Wood, Stephanie Egger, Ciryl Gane, Cristian Quinonez, Robert Whittaker, and Abusupiyan Magomedov
All of these came through, albeit with a brief scare from Gane and a bit of underperformance from William Gomis.
He had the misfortune of stepping into the cage with the best Fares Ziam the Octagon has ever seen. He gave it his all and nearly managed to mount a final rally, but he was the lesser man that day. I still maintain he would have beaten the Ziam who fought Terrance McKinney and Luigi Vendramini.
UFC 279 Odds For The Under Card:
Hakeem Dawodu (-210) vs. Julian Erosa (+180)
I’ve been a firm believer in “Mean” Hakeem since before his UFC debut and I regularly underestimate “Juicy J,” so take this recommendation with the appropriate grain of salt: Dawodu’s going to brutalize this man. He’s far too sharp and accurate with his combinations for Erosa’s shaky defense, he’s taken apart aggressive and technically sound strikers like Julio Arce and Mike Trizano in the past, and he’s got the gas tank to match Erosa’s pace. Erosa’s best chance is a club-and-sub, but I’d tab Dawodu as the more durable of the two, so it’s much likelier that Dawodu finds his first finish since 2019.
Jailton Almeida (-660) vs. Anton Turkalj (+490)
Turkalj’s Contender Series fight saw him unimpressively grind out a limited striker, which bodes very ill for his chances against a phenomenal ground artist on short notice. Almeida’s going to find a quick finish, so use him to nudge slight favorites into the positives.
Jamie Pickett (-125) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+105)
I do think Pickett wins more often than not, but his poor range management and Tiuliulin’s dogged aggression make an upset more feasible than I’d like. I’d stay away.
Jake Collier (-425) vs. Chris Barnett (+340)
While Collier’s a slightly bigger favorite than a Heavyweight fight probably merits, I can’t argue that it’s not justified. There really isn’t a lot going for Barnett: Collier’s taller, rangier, much more well-conditioned ... and a better boxer. Barnett needs a one-hit-kill spinning attack to win, which he’s not going to find.
Norma Dumont (-365) vs. Danyelle Wolf (+300)
Wolf hasn’t fought in two years, so while I do heavily favor Dumont based on Wolf’s poor performance on Contender Series, I’m not sure Dumont merits the sort of investment it would take to turn a decent profit considering the uncertainty.
Alatengheili (-175) vs. Chad Anheliger (+150)
Alatengheili looks like he’s really putting things together of late, and he has the correct skillset to win. Even if Anheliger’s sharp counters prove a match for “The Mongolian Knight’s” booming right cross, the latter’s powerful takedowns are more than sufficient to bail him out of any rough spots. Plus, considering the punishment Alatengheili has shrugged off in the Octagon, Anheliger’s not likely to find a knockout to turn things around.
Melissa Martinez (-165) vs. Elise Reed (+140)
This is a similar deal as the Dumont-Wolf fight. Martinez has spent the last three years kickboxing and I have been unable to find any footage of it, but we can assume that she’s better than her Combate days. However, you generally want more than an assumption when money’s involved.
Darian Weeks (-125) vs. Yohan Lainesse (+105)
It’s not the most confident pick I’ve ever made, but I get cranky when I pick an underdog but don’t recommend a bet, so a bit on Lainesse makes sense. He hits harder than Weeks and ostensibly wrestles well enough to keep it in his wheelhouse. Just be aware that Lainesse’s cardio is weak and limit your investment accordingly.
UFC 279 Odds For The Main Card:
Khamzat Chimaev (-1050) vs. Nate Diaz (+700)
This showdown is way too lopsided to be worth an investment.
Li Jingliang (-305) vs. Tony Ferguson (+255)
Tentative recommendation for a bet on Li. Though Ferguson clearly still has some technical chops, I’m not convinced his pressure-heavy, devil-may-care approach will work against larger men.
Kevin Holland (-195) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+165)
Holland’s height and reach make him a rightful favorite, but Rodriguez throws significantly more volume and is the sharper boxer. Best to stay away — I can see some controversy in the future.
Irene Aldana (-170) vs. Macy Chiasson (+145)
Aldana seems like a decent investment. Chiasson may have her usual size advantage, but she’s had issues keeping smaller women off of her in the past, and Aldana’s takedown defense is sufficiently stout to keep the fight standing and use her superior boxing.
Ion Cutelaba (-200) vs. Johnny Walker (+170)
While these guys’ fights are unpredictable in all the worst ways, Walker’s the likelier of the two to go down. Cutelaba is by far the more durable fighter, has the power to put away Walker with one shot, and possesses the sort of relentless wrestling attack that has bedeviled Walker in the past. Having said that, don’t bet a ton, as Cutelaba excels at tripping over his own feet, but do put some down.
UFC 279 Best Bets:
- Parlay — Jailton Almeida and Yohan Lainesse: Bet $60 to make $81.60
- Parlay — Hakeem Dawodu and Ion Cutelaba: Bet $80 to make $96.80
- Parlay — Alatengheili and Li Jingliang: Bet $80 to make $87.20
- Parlay — Jake Collier and Irene Aldana: Bet $62.40 to make $60
Is UFC 279 worth your money? Well, that depends on your feelings about slaughter. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Initial Investment For 2022: $600
Additional Investment (Aug. 2022): $400
Current Total: $622.72
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 279 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard balance on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
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