Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to the ABC airwaves this Saturday evening (July 16, 2022) when Featherweight contenders Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez square off inside UBS Arena in Belmont Park, N.Y., in UFC Long Island’s main event. The broadcast also features a Strawweight tussle that pits Amanda Lemos against Michelle Waterson and what looks like guaranteed fireworks between Muslim Salikhov and Li Jingliang.
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What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 58?
Jared Vanderaa’s chin gave out when he had all the momentum, Ricky Turcios fought the most moronic fight I’ve seen in ages, Saidyokub Kakhramonov turned out to be about twice as good as he’d looked in his UFC debut, and Rafael Fiziev’s cardio and takedown defense held up far better than expected.
I’d very much like to get back to the point where I don’t spend the entirety of a fight card filled with absolute dread, so back to the grind we go.
UFC Long Island Odds For The Undercard:
Jack Shore (-165) vs. Ricky Simon (+140)
Punahele Soriano (-240) vs. Dalcha Lungiambula (+200)
Bill Algeo (-180) vs. Herbert Burns (+155)
Dustin Jacoby (-130) vs. Da Un Jung (+110)
Dwight Grant (-140) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+125)
Emily Ducote (-140) vs. Jessica Penne (+120)
Thoughts: Jack Shore, Punahele Soriano and Dustin Jacoby for the favorites, Herbert Burns and Dustin Stoltzfus for the underdogs.
Ricky Simon is a terrific fighter whose wins over Merab Dvalishvili and Montel Jackson have aged like fine wine. He’s fast enough and skilled enough to recreate the early success Timur Valiev enjoyed against “Tank,” but he’s also cursed with a similarly shaky chin that got him dropped by Dvalishvili and flattened by Urijah Faber. It’s a near 50/50 in terms of skills, meaning Shore’s superior size and durability earn him the nod.
As I’ve said before I try not to be too trigger-happy in writing off prospects who failed to pan out in the Octagon, but I really don’t think Dalcha Lungiambula’s going to turn the corner at this point. Soriano’s the more powerful, more durable and better-conditioned, not to mention a sufficiently skilled wrestler to take Lungiambula’s judo out of the equation.
I recognize that Da Un Jung is still relatively young and has improved since then, but this is a man who spent two rounds utterly befuddled by the striking of Sam Alvey. Even if you give him the benefit of the doubt, he’s still flat-footed and relatively easy to hit, which most would consider undesirable traits against a decorated kickboxer with notoriously heavy low kicks. Plus, Jacoby’s very hard to hold down, so Jung can’t just lean on takedowns like he did against William Knight.
He’s definitely a bargain at those odds.
Burns is admittedly a risk. Indeed, he looked terrible last time and is coming off a huge layoff. At the same time, this is a world-level submission artist fighting a guy who’s been taken down 19 times in four UFC appearances. Go easy on it and be aware that Algeo will take over if it goes past the first few minutes, but a bit on Burns will have good returns.
Stoltzfus may be winless (0-3) in the Octagon, but that was against dangerous customers Kyle Daukaus, Rodolfo Vieira and Gerald Meerschaert. This time, he’s up against a low-output Welterweight who’s been taken down at least once in five of six UFC appearances. With the freedom to use his kicks and takedowns, he should be able to neutralize Dwight Grant’s sloppy haymakers and cruise to victory.
UFC Long Island Odds For The Main Card:
Brian Ortega (-165) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+140)
Amanda Lemos (-315) vs. Michelle Waterson (+260)
Muslim Salikhov (-175) vs. Li Jingliang (+150)
Sumudaerji (-260) vs. Matt Schnell (+220)
Shane Burgos (-175) vs. Charles Jourdain (+150)
Miesha Tate (-205) vs. Lauren Murphy (+175)
Thoughts: Go ahead and toss Amanda Lemos and Sumudaerji into parlays, and maybe sprinkle Shane Burgos in there as well.
I know, I know, women’s mixed martial arts (MMA) fights are the ones that bite me in the butt, but there really isn’t a lot going Michelle Waterson’s way in this match up. Lemos is way bigger, way more powerful, and a stout defensive wrestler. If Lemos stays busy and aggressive, she has all the tools to bulldoze “The Karate Hottie” without much issue.
I’ll admit two things about Sumudaerji: he’s been out of action for a long time and his UFC victories have come against limited opposition. That said, he’s still a much more fearsome striker than Matt Schnell, whose chin has failed him on multiple occasions. Plus, Schnell has hit all of one takedown in the last five years, so his chances of getting those lethal submissions of his to work are slim even if he does somehow manage to get inside of Sumudaerji’s reach.
In short, fluff up some other odds with “The Tibetan Eagle.”
Burgos’ skull has absorbed three or four lifetimes’ worth of punishment during his UFC tenure, but he’s still extremely difficult to put away, has a half-foot reach advantage, and is one of the few men in UFC who can exceed Jourdain’s output. While he’ll make it way closer than it should be, as it’s the only way he knows how to fight, Burgos is seasoned enough to gut out the win.
UFC Long Island Best Bets:
- Parlay — Punahele Soriano and Dustin Jacoby: Bet $100 to make $151
- Parlay — Sumudaerji and Herbert Burns: Bet $80 to make $202.40
- Parlay — Jack Shore and Shane Burgos: Bet $80 to make $126.40
- Parlay — Amanda Lemos and Dustin Stoltzfus: Bet $80 to make $156.80
UFC Long Island’s main event is great and Burgos-Jourdain is worth the price of admission on its own. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Initial Investment For 2022: $600
Current Total: $523.19
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Long Island fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 11 a.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ABC/ESPN+ at 2 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Long Island: “Ortega vs. Yair” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.