The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight division’s ludicrous depth is on display once again this Saturday (June 25, 2022) when Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot attempt to punch their ways into contention at each others’ expense. In the co-main event of UFC Vegas 57, which takes place inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, Neil Magny collides with blue-chip prospect, Shavkat Rakhmonov, in a Welterweight battle, while Josh Parisian and Alan Baudot trade meat hooks on fight prior in a battle of big boys between .
With Independence Day approaching at an alarming speed, here’s how to be financially prepared ...
What Went Wrong at UFC Austin?
No excuses. I overestimated Kyle Daukaus’ and Court McGee’s durability and underestimated Joaquin Buckley’s countering and takedown defense.
We’re not even halfway through the year, though. We’ve bounced back before.
UFC Vegas 57 Odds For The Under Card:
Carlos Ulberg (-115) vs. Tafon Nchukwi (-105)
T.J. Brown (-210) vs. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (+180)
Sergey Morozov (-140) vs. Raulian Paiva (+120)
J.P. Buys (-120) vs. Cody Durden (EVEN)
Mario Bautista (-160) vs. Brian Kelleher (+140)
Jinh Yu Frey (-260) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (+220)
Thoughts: Honestly, I like the looks of every favorite. Let’s go from the top.
The thing with Tafon Nchukwi is that he’s just super slow. It’s not as big a problem at 205 as it was at 185 pounds, but it’s still a serious problem ... especially against a taller, rangier striker in Ulberg. “Black Jag” basically just has to do what he did against Fabio Cherant: stay at a distance, work behind the jab, and don’t get pinned against the fence. While Nchukwi’s ground game does pose a threat, he has to close the distance to actually use it, and I don’t like his chances of that.
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke is about as specialized as any fighter you’ll see in modern UFC. His fights are boolean: either he takes you down and grinds you out or he gets his butt beat on the feet. Brown is the better striker, the better submission artist, and a very capable wrestler in his own right. “Downtown” is fragile, sure, but Shayilan is nobody’s idea of a knockout artist.
In short, Brown dominates everywhere.
Raulian Paiva gets hit a lot. In fact, he was out-landed in four of his six UFC appearances to date. That was all fine and dandy when he was a giant Flyweight fighting smaller men he could overpower, but he suffered about six or so cumulative concussions in his two Bantamweight bouts. Sergey Morozov’s boxing has looked terrific of late and he’s a great grappler to boot, meaning that unless Paiva can stagger him with one big shot like Douglas da Silva Andrade did, it’s Morozov’s fight to lose.
Losing to a Flyweight killer in Bruno Silva and an absolutely gigantic Bantamweight destroyer in Montel Jackson aren’t enough to convince me that Buys is a bust, especially not against a fellow wrestler who consistently gasses after five minutes. When he’s on, Buys is the better scrambler of the two and the more capable in the later rounds. I’ve been guilty of overlooking fighters’ bad performances in favor of the potential I thought I saw in them, so don’t go crazy, but there’s enough going “Young Savage’s” way to warrant a look.
As effective as Brian Kelleher is in the pocket and from the top, his tools to actually get there aren’t great. That’s a problem when Mario Bautista has three inches of height and reach on him, the know-how to use them, and the takedown defense and scrambling skills to stay off his back. Bautista’s been clipped before, yes, but so has Kelleher, so I’m confident in Bautista’s chances.
Fighting Vanessa Demopoulos is an exercise in patience. So long as you don’t take her down or follow her to the ground when she gets hurt or pulls guard, you’re golden. Jinh Yu Frey is abnormally patient, packs serious heat in her left hand, and is sharp enough on the ground to stay out of trouble if Demopoulos does contrive to get her to the mat. Safe investment, I say.
UFC Vegas 57 Odds For The Main Card:
Arman Tsarukyan (-295) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (+245)
Shavkat Rakhmonov (-390) vs. Neil Magny (+320)
Alan Baudot (-115) vs. Josh Parisian (-205)
Thiago Moises (-255) vs. Christos Giagos (+215)
Umar Nurmagomedov (-900) vs. Nate Maness (+625)
Chris Curtis (-135) vs. Rodolfo Vieira (+115)
Thoughts: Call me crazy, but I like Rodolfo Vieira as an underdog. “The Black Belt Hunter” figures to have a massive size advantage over Curtis, a natural Welterweight who’s been controlled by strong grapplers in the past, and his grappling skills speak for themselves. While I won’t deny that “The Action Man” is on a hell of a roll, I can’t overlook Vieira at positive odds. Put him in a parlay with Rakhmonov, who has a significant edge in stopping power over Magny, and reap the benefits.
UFC Vegas 57 Best Bets:
- Parlay — T.J. Brown and Jinh Yu Frey: Bet $150 to make $156
- Parlay — Sergey Morozov and Mario Bautista: Bet $80 to make $140
- Parlay — J.P. Buys and Carlos Ulberg: Bet $80 to make $194.40
- Parlay — Shavkat Rakhmonov and Rodolfo Vieira: Bet $60 to make $102
You don not want to miss the five rounds of grappling mayhem that UFC Vegas 57’s main event promises. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Initial Investment For 2022: $600
Current Total: $953.15
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 57 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN2/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (on ESPN/ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 57: “Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
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