The Octagon’s return to Las Vegas, Nevada, this weekend (Sat., April 16, 2022) will feature some bad blood, as UFC Vegas 51’s main event pits surging Welterweight Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad against each other for the second time. Also on tap is a clash between elite Middleweight prospects Gadzhi Omargadzhiev and Caio Borralho, plus Andre Fialho vs. Miguel Baeza in a battle of murderous punchers.
UFC Vegas 51 is an odd one, but one full of profit if you know where to look. Let’s go!
What Went Wrong at UFC 273?
Honestly, it’s Kay Hansen’s loss that irks me the most. I can accept the other parlay going up in flames, as I scored Sterling vs. Yan the same way two of the judges did, but watching Hansen execute perfectly for one round, then short-circuit in the second and completely give up in the third was galling. Oh well.
UFC Vegas 51 Odds For The Under Card:
Devin Clark (-170) vs. William Knight (+150)
Pannie Kianzad (-425) vs. Lina Lansberg (+320)
Drakkar Klose (-550) vs. Brandon Jenkins (+400)
Martin Buday (-225) vs. Chris Barnett (+185)
Trey Ogden (-130) vs. Jordan Leavitt (+110)
Istela Nunes (-210) vs. Sam Hughes (+175)
Alatengheili (-170) vs. Kevin Croom (+150)
Thoughts: Some of the tastier odds have grown more lopsided than I’d like, but we can still work with them. Martin Buday and Istela Nunes are solid picks, while Trey Ogden is a worthwhile, if riskier, investment.
We’ve already seen Chris Barnett try to deal with a huge, lumbering pressure fighter in Ben Rothwell, and that ended badly for “Beast Boy.” Limited though he may be, Buday’s size, strength and skills in the clinch will allow him to march through Barnett’s fancy kicks and sporadic punches to smother him on the inside.
Bank on it.
It’s not like Sam Hughes has lost to bad fighters in the Octagon, but 0-3 still isn’t a great look, and the fact that she got touched up by Luana Pinheiro’s limited stand up bodes ill for her against a decorated Muay Thai practitioner. The only real threat is her offensive wrestling, which has been nonexistent during her UFC tenure. I’ll be very surprised if Nunes doesn’t box her up something fierce.
As for Ogden, his fight with Leavitt is a bit of a landmine. Ogden is the superior wrestler of the two, the superior striker, and looks to have the superior gas tank, but his submission defense has failed him in the past. So long as he plays it smart, as he did in his recent win over J.J. Okanovich, he’ll be fine. Just slap another favorite into the parlay to mitigate the risk a bit. For example, Drakkar Klose — who out-classes Brandon Jenkins everywhere — and Pannie Kianzad — who is twice as active in fights as Lina Lansberg — are safe picks.
UFC Vegas 51 Odds For The Main Card:
Vicente Luque (-165) vs. Belal Muhammad (+145)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (-140) vs. Caio Borralho (+120)
Miguel Baeza (-180) vs. Andre Fialho (+155)
Mayra Bueno Silva (-450) vs. Wu Yanan (+350)
Pat Sabatini (-435) vs. TJ Laramie (+330)
Mounir Lazzez (N/A) vs. Ange Loosa (N/A)
Thoughts: For me, the big bargain here is Gadzhi Omargadzhiev. Caio Borralho looked very solid on Contender Series, sure, but Omargadzhiev seems like he’s on another level. Omargadzhiev’s wrestling in particular is a game-changer, as Borralho proved unable to stay off the cage against the much more limited Aaron Jeffery. Omargadzhiev’s going to be a real problem at 185 pounds, so be sure to get in on the ground floor.
UFC Vegas 51 Best Bets:
- Parlay — Martin Buday and Istela Nunes: Bet $90 to make $101.70
- Parlay — Trey Ogden and Drakkar Klose: Bet $80 to make $87.20
- Parlay — Pannie Kianzad and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev: Bet $120 to make $134.40
Is UFC Vegas 51’s card wonky? Yep. Ravaged by COVID and other misfortunes? Yep. Still potentially violent as hell? Darn straight. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Initial Investment For 2022: $600
Current Total: $1,275.30
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 51 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 5:30 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 8:30 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 51: “Luque vs. Muhammad 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.