The Octagon returns from its international voyage this weekend (Sat., Oct. 29, 2022) for Ultimate Fighting Championship’s (UFC’s) latest show inside its Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 63’s main event sees Arnold Allen attempt to finally punch his way into contention at Calvin Kattar’s expense, while Max Griffin battles Tim Means in a clash of Welterweight veterans. In addition, Contender Series graduate, Waldo Cortes-Acosta, makes his promotional debut opposite Jared Vanderaa.
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Caio Borralho, Abubakar Nurmagomedov, Muhammad Mokaev, Nikita Krylov, Manon Fiorot and Karol Rosa
Outside of Fiorot underwhelming a bit and Krylov nearly getting pasted in the first minute, things worked out well for this lot.
Every single media outlet had him winning the fight, as did I, but I honestly can’t get as angry as others I’ve seen. O’Malley did some very good work in the early portions of the first and third rounds, so while I disagree with the two judges who saw it for him, I can understand their positions.
I said in my preview that Dobson would win if he kept Armen Petrosyan on the back foot and used his wrestling to help neutralize “Superman’s” kicks. He showed the tools to do so, but none of the drive. Though I’m not trying to take away from Petrosyan’s genuinely solid performance, Dobson’s passivity was largely an unforced error.
What surprised me most was Islam Makhachev’s striking. I really thought Oliveira would tear him up on the feet, but Makhachev used lateral movement to largely defuse Oliveira’s offense, force him to overextend with that flying knee, and decisively punish him for it. Well done.
I think I can be forgiven for assuming that he’d enter the cage with two functional shoulders. The fact that he was allowed to compete at all — even after informing the referee that it might pop out of its socket mid-fight — was an amazing dereliction of duty from the organizers.
UFC Vegas 63 Odds For The Under Card:
Phil Hawes (-170) vs. Roman Dolidze (+144)
I was genuinely surprised to see the lines this close. Hawes has beaten far better opposition than Dolidze in the Octagon, has a considerable edge in overall striking technique, and has the wrestling pedigree to avoid the grappling slog that Dolidze prefers. Though Dolidze has an outside chance of an out-of-nowhere finish thanks to Hawes’ occasionally shaky chin, it’s far more likely that Hawes just flat-out out-classes him.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-225) vs. Andrei Arlovski (+190)
This feels like a trap and yet I can’t stop myself from walking into it. Rogerio de Lima has a massive power advantage and a fondness for the sorts of early blitzes that have ended so many of Arlovski’s nights in the past, but he is marvelously adept at shooting himself in the foot. Still, Arlovski isn’t much of a takedown threat, which takes “Pezao’s” biggest weakness off the table, and he looked close to his expiration date in April’s questionable win over Jake Collier. Screw it, let’s go with Rogerio de Lima.
Jun Yong Park (-240) vs. Joseph Holmes (+200)
I am absolutely taking “The Iron Turtle” over a guy who couldn’t beat Jamie Pickett. Smashing the hapless Alen Amedovski isn’t enough to convince me that “Ugly Man Joe” has made the improvements necessary to beat someone as skilled and well-rounded as Park, who looks to have the wrestling and technical striking advantages.
Chase Hooper (-255) vs. Steve Garcia (+215)
As underdeveloped as Hooper still is, I really like his chances here. Garcia got badly out-grappled by Luis Pena the last time he fought a submission specialist, he’s attempting a cut to 145 pounds after missing the limit by more than one pound the last time, and his tendency to charge in has gotten him punished in two consecutive fights. Hooper shouldn’t have much trouble getting his hands on him and dragging things into his world.
Carlos Mota (N/A) vs. Cody Durden (N/A)
DraftKings hasn’t released the lines at time of writing, but if you can get Mota at better than -150 or so, go for it. His nasty body attack is a great weapon against Durden, who historically fades after the first round.
Christian Rodriguez (N/A) vs. Joshua Weems (N/A)
The lines aren’t out and I haven’t had the opportunity to watch tape on Weems, so steer clear.
UFC Vegas 63 Odds For The Main Card:
Arnold Allen (-120) vs. Calvin Kattar (EVEN)
It’s a coin flip and I’d rather not mess with it, honestly. Kattar massively underwhelmed against Josh Emmett last time out, so while I do think he’s got a good shot against Allen, I can’t trust him to execute here.
Max Griffin (-180) vs. Tim Means (+155)
This is another close one between extremely inconsistent fighters — best avoided.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-195) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+165)
The laws of comedy dictate that when I completely give up on Jared Vanderaa — accept that his win over Justin Tafa was an aberration, and bet against him — he’ll turn in the best performance of his career. The last few years, however, have been so desperately short on mirth that I’m not sure they apply anymore. Cortes-Acosta has the faster and heavier hands, plus enough defensive grappling skills to avoid Vanderaa’s powerful top game and a surprisingly stout gas tank. He’s got his share of flaws, but Cortes-Acosta has the right tools to overpower “The Mountain,” especially when the latter’s chin gave out for the first time in his most recent endeavor.
Josh Fremd (-170) vs. Tresean Gore (+145)
Gore has more physical gifts, while Fremd is a lot more seasoned. I’m arguing a bit with myself, but I think I’ll give this one to Fremd. He’s got a significant height advantage and enough skill to use it, which combines with his solid wrestling chops to give him the means to either knockout Gore like Cody Brundage did or defuse him like Bryan Battle. Both have been knocked out before, so don’t go crazy, but I believe in Fremd.
Dustin Jacoby (-170) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (+145)
Nope, not touching a Rountree fight. The man oscillates wildly between “world beater” and “disappointment” like few others.
UFC Vegas 63 Best Bets:
- Parlay — Phil Hawes and Jun Yong Park: Bet $60 to make $75
- Parlay — Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Waldo Cortes-Acosta: Bet $50 to make $59.50
- Parlay — Chase Hooper and Josh Fremd: Bet $50 to make 60.50
I see some dramatic finishes in UFC Vegas 63’s future, and that’s as good a reason as any to tune in. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Initial Investment For 2022: $600
Additional Investment (Aug. 2022): $400
Current Total: $893.92
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 63 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4:30 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.
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