A stadium full of Texan fight fans welcome the Octagon back to Houston this Saturday (May 15, 2021) when Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler headline UFC 262 on pay-per-view (PPV). Another pivotal Lightweight clash pits Tony Ferguson against the surging Beneil Dariush, while Katlyn Chookagian squares off against Viviane Araujo and Shane Burgos trades Featherweight heat with Edson Barboza.
Want to order UFC 262 without putting a dent in your wallet? Here’s how to potentially fatten that thing up ...
What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 26?
Is one week without wonky judging too much to ask? This should have been a sizable win, with successful efforts from Jun Yong Park, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Carlston Harris and Ludovit Klein offsetting Donald Cerrone’s loss, but the judges robbed Klein of an obvious 29-28 victory. It never gets any less frustrating.
UFC 262 Odds For The Under Card:
Ronaldo Souza (-110) vs. Andre Muniz (-110)
Mike Grundy (-115) vs. Lando Vannata (-105)
Antonina Shevchenko (-125) vs. Andrea Lee (+105)
Jordan Wright (-110) vs. Jamie Pickett (-110)
Gina Mazany (-210) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+175)
Tucker Lutz (-120) vs. Kevin Aguilar (EVEN)
Christos Giagos (-240) vs. Sean Soriano (+200)
Thoughts: Lee was around +150 at the start of the weekend, but it seems like everyone else came to the same realization I did: she’s a decent takedown artist fighting someone who’s absolutely helpless off of her back. “KGB’s” greatest issues have come against superior wrestlers, which Antonina Shevchenko most certainly is not. If Shevchenko does have an edge on the feet, it’s not nearly significant enough to make up for that glaring weakness, which I expect Lee to exploit mercilessly. It’s not often I support betting on someone on a three-fight losing streak, but I’ll make an exception here.
There’s plenty of other value to be found as well, namely Mike Grundy, Jordan Wright, Gina Mazany and Tucker Lutz.
Lando Vannata’s takedown defense has failed him over and over throughout his UFC career; Marc Diakiese and Bobby Green combined to put him on his back seven times. Dropping to Featherweight isn’t going to magically fix that, especially not against a wrestler with Grundy’s credentials. As one-note as Grundy can be, it’s the right note to win this fight.
It’s abundantly clear that Jordan Wright doesn’t like getting pressured. Both Anthony Hernandez and Joaquin Buckley were able to simply march forward and sling leather at his head until he fell over. Thing is, Jamie Pickett’s far more of a sharpshooter than an attacker, and his own issues with fighting off the back foot play into Wright’s hands. While a bit of caution is warranted — Pickett is durable enough to avoid an early finish and Wright’s cardio is untested — it’s too favorable a style clash to pass up.
As far as Mazany, she’s a much better wrestler than Priscila Cachoeira and won’t waste enough time on the feet to potentially get clipped by a haymaker. The move to Flyweight appears to have done “Danger” some good, and even if it didn’t, she’s still better than the likes of “Zombie Girl.”
I’ll admit that I’ve been burned on some Octagon newcomers recently, but at least Tucker Lutz has two “Contender Series” fights under his belt. If he comes out sharp, he’s too much for the free-falling Aguilar; indeed, “The Angel of Death” has always been a bit chinny, his offense no longer seems capable of making up for it. He should not be struggling with Charles Rosa on the feet, and Lutz definitely has the skills to be similarly difficult.
UFC 262 Odds For The Main Card:
Charles Oliveira (-135) vs. Michael Chandler (+115)
Beneil Dariush (-170) vs. Tony Ferguson (+150)
Katlyn Chookagian (-140) vs. Viviane Araujo (+120)
Shane Burgos (-135) vs. Edson Barboza (+115)
Matt Schnell (-160) vs. Rogerio Bontorin (+140)
Thoughts: I really think Oliveira leaves the cage this Saturday as a champion, and I also like the lines on Beneil Dariush and Rogerio Bontorin.
Oliveira sports a five-inch reach advantage over Chandler, can neutralize his wrestling with the organization’s best guillotine, and has more than enough power to put “Iron” on his seat. I’ll admit to underestimating Chandler against Dan Hooker, but Oliveira’s recent form has been downright incredible, and his new-found mental fortitude looks like more than Chandler can crack.
I’ve got faith in the Brazilian and hope that you will, too.
Watching Tony Ferguson get utterly dismantled on the mat by Oliveira last time out, it’s hard to have faith in him against another heavy-hitting, hard-nosed grappling ace like Dariush. Even if that was a one-off flat performance caused by the Justin Gaethje debacle, I’m not convinced even the classic Tony Ferguson can win this. Dariush showed against Drakkar Klose and Diego Ferreira that he simply refuses to wilt, and that wrestling of his looks like an excellent way to snuff out a potential Fergson snowball before it can start.
Bontorin’s the longest shot of this batch, and I won’t pretend there isn’t a lot working against him here. He’s on an 0-2 skid, got brutalized by Kai Kara-France last time out, and is up against a man who’s 5-1 in his last six. Still, he’s got a considerable wrestling edge over Schnell and isn’t too shabby on the feet, so I can definitely see him eking this one out.
UFC 262 Best Bets:
- Parlay — Andrea Lee and Gina Mazany: Bet $150 to make $304.50
- Parlay — Mike Grundy and Beneil Dariush: Bet $100 to make $197
- Parlay — Tucker Lutz and Charles Oliveira: Bet $80 to make $175.20
- Parlay — Jordan Wright and Rogerio Bontorin: Bet $60 to make $214.80
I can’t see UFC 262 not producing a hell of a highlight reel. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 262 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:15 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
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