Fans of spinning and flying techniques will eat well this Saturday (Nov. 13, 2021) when Max Holloway and Yair Rodriguez headline the Octagon’s return to UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The ESPN+-streamed main card will also include a Heavyweight tussle between Ben Rothwell and Marcos Rogerio de Lima, plus what could be absolute fireworks between Song Yadong and Julio Arce.
If last week’s pay-per-view (PPV) ate into your funds for the month, I’ve got just the ticket to refilling them ...
What Went Wrong at UFC 268?
Some fights ended up much closer than expected, but every bet came through, resulting in the most successful night of the year. Looking forward to keeping it up!
UFC Vegas 42 Odds For The Under Card:
Thiago Moises (-250) vs. Joel Alvarez (+210)
Cynthia Calvillo (-120) vs. Andrea Lee (EVEN)
Miguel Baeza (-135) vs. Khaos Williams (+115)
Sean Woodson (-320) vs. Collin Anglin (+260)
Cortney Casey (-220) vs. Liana Jojua (+180)
Marc Diakiese (-175) vs. Rafael Alves (+155)
Da Un Jung (-115) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (-105)
Thoughts: Spreading out our picks has worked well of late, so let’s do it again. Miguel Baeza, Cortney Casey, Marc Diakiese and Kennedy Nchukwu look like solid pick ups.
Though “Caramel Thunder” has had some missteps of late — namely a rough first round against Matt Brown and subsequent decision loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio — this looks more than winnable for him. He’s a much crisper striker than Khaos Williams, who still throws wild combinations with his chin straight up, and those crushing leg kicks of his look like a particularly effective weapon here.
It’s worth a look, I’d say.
The risk with Cortney Casey here is less her opponent’s skills and more her bizarre habit of going to razor-close decisions. She’s big and strong enough to take apart Liana Jojua on the feet, but some poor fight IQ could very easily sink her if it lets “She-Wolf” rack up top control. Still, Jojua is several steps below Casey’s usual competition, so “Cast Iron” is still investment-worthy.
I’m not ready to write off Marc Diakiese just yet. Drakkar Klose, Dan Hooker, Nasrat Haqparast and Rafael Fiziev are all very solid. And losing to them doesn’t make “Bonecrusher” a bad fighter (I’d take all four of them to beat Alves). Diakiese’s taller, has a five-inch reach advantage, and has superior striking fundamentals, meaning so long as he doesn’t shoot right into Alves’ guillotine, he should be able to take the Brazilian apart at range.
As solid as Da Un Jung looked against William Knight, it’s worth remembering that Sam Alvey beat him on the feet for large portions of their fight last year. Nzechukwu is durable and busy enough to win the striking battle through sheer volume, and he gets better at stuffing takedowns as the rounds progress. Jung might be able to grind him out, but I like Nzechukwu to simply outwork him down the stretch.
You could use Sean Woodson as a parlay anchor as well. He’s far, far superior to Collin Anglin on the feet and has shown increasing proficiency at defending takedowns.
A bit of a late addition, but I do think Cynthia Calvillo could be worth your time. Andrea Lee gets taken down by everyone who tries to do so, and for all her faults, Calvillo’s a sufficiently skilled wrestler and top control specialist to do the same.
UFC Vegas 42 Odds For The Main Card:
Max Holloway (-650) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+475)
Ben Rothwell (-150) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+130)
Felicia Spencer (-290) vs. Leah Letson (+245)
Kyle Daukaus (-225) vs. Roman Dolidze (+185)
Song Yadong (-137) vs. Julio Arce (+117)
Thoughts: Ben Rothwell is undervalued, and the confident among you could use Max Holloway to nudge a near-even line into the positives.
I like Marcos Rogerio de Lima. I also recognize that Marcos Rogerio de Lima is an overweight Light Heavyweight with one of the worst bottom games I’ve ever seen. Indeed, he’s the only man in UFC history to fall victim to a forearm choke (watch it), which went functionally extinct in mixed martial arts (MMA) about the time people started wearing gloves. Rothwell is durable enough to take “Pezao’s” best shot and walk him down until the Brazilian panic-wrestles like usual, leaving his neck open for Rothwell’s signature front choke.
I think everyone can acknowledge that Holloway is a better, more conditioned striker than Rodriguez. Rodriguez’s only real hope in this match up is to turn Holloway’s lights out with one hit, and considering what we’ve seen “Blessed” absorb with nary a flinch, that doesn’t seem likely. In short, slap Holloway onto a parlay.
I was going to recommend Kyle Daukaus as well, but that fight got scrapped when Roman Dolidze withdrew. So it goes.
UFC Vegas 42 Best Bets:
- Parlay — Miguel Baeza and Cortney Casey: Bet $150 to make $229.50
- Parlay — Marc Diakiese and Cynthia Calvillo: Bet $100 to make $188
- Parlay — Kennedy Nzechukwu and Max Holloway: Bet $120 to make $150
- Parlay — Sean Woodson and Ben Rothwell: $140 to make $166.60
UFC Vegas 42 features some real nice match ups on here you don’t want to miss. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Initial (Boosted) Investment For 2021: $600
Current Total For 2021: $2,544.93
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