While Rose Namajunas and Zhang Weili gear up for a championship rematch, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) women’s Strawweight division will produce another top contender this Saturday (Oct. 9, 2021) when Mackenzie Dern takes on Marina Rodriguez in the latest UFC on ESPN+ main event. UFC Vegas 38 will also see Randy Brown meet Jared Gooden in a clash of dangerous Welterweight finishers and Tim Elliott face Matheus Nicolau in what could be an all-action Flyweight battle.
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What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 38?
One of our parlays got rendered null and void when Aspen Ladd vs. Macy Chiasson evaporated and Kyle Daukaus vs. Kevin Holland went to a “No Contest;” however, the others hit just fine. Jamie Mullarkey came up huge as an underdog, Casey O’Neill beat down Antonina Shevchenko as expected, and Thiago Santos emerged victorious in a thoroughly weird main event. Let’s keep it up!
UFC Vegas 39 Odds For The Undercard:
Chris Gutierrez (-240) vs. Felipe Colares (+200)
Alexandr Romanov (-600) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+450)
Damon Jackson (-177) vs. Charles Rosa (+157)
Lupita Godinez (-260) vs. Silvana Juarez (+200)
Steve Garcia (-335) vs. Charlie Ontiveros (+275)
Thoughts: I like the lines on Chris Gutierrez and Damon Jackson, and while I think Jared Vanderaa loses to Alexandr Romanov a little more often than not, the odds are so wildly lopsided that “The Mountain” is worth a look.
Though Chris Gutierrez has the occasional lapse — as seen when he let Cody Durden rack up a 10-8 first round — he’s got the skillset to take apart Colares. “Cabocao” relies on a decent, long-range kicking attack and a lethal submission game held back by limited wrestling; Gutierrez is by far the better striker at Colares’ preferred distance and has steadily improved his takedown defense during his UFC tenure. All Colares really has going for him in this match up is ridiculous durability, but between Gutierrez’s punishing low kicks and the fact that he doesn’t generally fade down the stretch, I don’t see Colares succeeding in a war of attrition. Bank on Gutierrez.
The evidence-based argument for Damon Jackson beating Charles Rosa is that Rosa still can’t stop a takedown after seven years in the Octagon and, outside of his armbar finish of Manny Bermudez, consistently struggles to get anything going off of his back against grapplers of Jackson’s caliber. The silly argument is that Rosa has never won two consecutive fights in the Octagon and is coming off of a victory.
Either way, “The Leech” is worth a look.
Vanderaa put on the performance of his career his last time out, showing a wholly unexpected level of cardio and kickboxing skill against a very dangerous customer in Justin Tafa. Romanov, meanwhile, was lucky to escape with a technical decision against Juan Espino. Vanderaa has had issues with his takedown defense, which prompted me to pick against him in my “Prelims” piece, but he’s so much better than Romanov on the feet that a small investment at +450 seems like a good plan.
UFC Vegas 39 Odds For The Main Card:
Mackenzie Dern (-167) vs. Marina Rodriguez (+147)
Randy Brown (-225) vs. Jared Gooden (+185)
Matheus Nicolau (-200) vs. Tim Elliott (+170)
Sabina Mazo (-175) vs. Mariya Agapova (+155)
Phil Hawes (-325) vs. Deron Winn (+265)
Thoughts: Matheus Nicolau and Sabina Mazo ... step right up.
As entertaining as it is, Elliott’s style has consistently failed to produce results against high-level ground artists with solid wrestling. Brazil’s Nicolau definitely fits that bill, and he’s the superior striker to boot. I just don’t see Elliott’s face-first, swarming attack getting the best of Nicolau, especially considering his inability to keep the pressure up against Brandon Royval or hold down the extremely limited.
Nicolau never should have been cut in the first place and he’ll prove it again here.
Sabina Mazo’s lack of stopping power came back to bite her against Alexis Davis last time out, but I really like her chances here. Mariya Agapova hasn’t fought since Aug. 2020 and showed serious issues with her gas tank and takedown defense against Shana Dobson. “Colombian Queen” has a massive edge in striking technique and some decent offensive wrestling when she bothers to use it, giving her an out if Agapova tries to bridge the standup gap with raw aggression. Though Agapova could have improved during her time away, there’s enough going Mazo’s way for me to recommend a bet.
UFC Vegas 39 Best Bets:
- Parlay — Chris Gutierrez and Damon Jackson: Bet $200 to make $244
- Single bet — Jared Vanderaa: Bet $40 to make $180
- Parlay — Matheus Nicolau and Sabina Mazo: Bet $150 to make $195
There’s definitely some intrigue to be found at UFC Vegas 39, and it doesn’t run head-to-head with Fury-Wilder 3 later that evening. In other words, it’s worth a watch, I’d say. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 39 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 1 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 39: “Dern vs. Rodriguez” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.