UFC Vegas 40, which takes place this weekend (Sat., Oct. 16, 2021) inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, offers a rare women’s Featherweight fight when Aspen Ladd steps up on short notice to face Norma Dumont in the main event. Also on tap are a Heavyweight crossroads bout pitting Carlos Felipe against Andrei Arlovski, an old-school vs. new-school Lightweight scrap between Jim Miller and Erick Gonzalez, and a pivotal Flyweight tussle between top prospects Manon Fiorot and Mayra Bueno Silva.
UFC Vegas 40 is a weird card, to be sure, but also one we can squeeze a profit out of; therefore, let’s get cracking ...
What Went Wrong at UFC Vegas 39?
The long shot fell through as expected and Sabina Mazo turned in the worst performance of her career, but Chris Gutierrez and Damon Jackson kept us in the green, even if one of the judges in Gutierrez’s fight tried to undo all his hard work. Steady as she goes, mates.
UFC Vegas 40 Odds For The Undercard:
Bruno Silva (-150) vs. Andrew Sanchez (+130)
Ramazan Emeev (-255) vs. Danny Roberts (+215)
Sijara Eubanks (-325) vs. Luana Carolina (+265)
Lupita Godinez (N/A) vs. Luana Carolina (N/A)
Ludovit Klein (-320) vs. Nate Landwehr (+260)
Danaa Batgerel (-185) vs. Brandon Davis (+160)
Ariane Carnelossi (-155) vs. Istela Nunes (+135)
Thoughts: I’m really not seeing a lot on the undercard. Sijara Eubanks was a steal when she opened at -240, but she’s a bit of a hard sell at this point. I suppose Bruno Silva and Ramazan Emeev wouldn’t be the worst choices.
I’d imagine that I’m higher on Andrew Sanchez’s overall technical skills than most, and even I see this as an extremely rough match up. While Sanchez is the stronger wrestler and more polished striker, Silva’s durability, stopping power and ability to stay dangerous well into the later rounds all look like problems for someone with a history of gassing out and getting stopped. It wouldn’t be too terribly surprising to see “El Dirte” grind out a win, but odds are he gets clipped in the process.
In short, parlay “Blindado” with Eubanks for positive odds.
Never mind, Eubanks is out. Slap Ludovit Klein in there instead; he’s miles better than Nate Landwehr on the feet and should have the takedown defense to keep it there
Danny Roberts definitely has a few things going for him in this match up, namely height, reach and kickboxing. None of that figures to be useful to him if he can’t stay on his feet, and while Emeev is as one-note as they come, his takedown-heavy onslaught is the right note here. Roberts is also coming off a nearly two-year layoff, and considering that he’d struggle to beat Emeev even at his best, I’d say “Gorets” is your man.
UFC Vegas 40 Odds For The Main Card:
Aspen Ladd (-137) vs. Norma Dumont (+117)
Carlos Felipe (-112) vs. Andrei Arlovski (-108)
Jim Miller (-210) vs. Erick Gonzalez (+175)
Manon Fiorot (-220) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (+180)
Julian Marquez (-235) vs. Jordan Wright (+195)
Thoughts: Manon Fiorot and Julian Marquez look like the anchors for this event, and for all her shortcomings, Aspen Ladd’s worth a look.
My argument for Fiorot is the same as last time she and Silva were set to lock horns: her speed and mobility are too much for “Sheetara” on the feet and she’s too stout a wrestler for the Brazilian’s ground game to play a factor. Premature though it may be because of her limited Octagon competition, I’ve got Fiorot pegged as one to watch, and I definitely see her running circles around Silva here.
The thing about Marquez is that he’s not a particularly adept striker; he’s got power, sure, but he’s very limited in terms of his actual kickboxing skill. He is, however, ludicrously tough and well-conditioned, and that’s more than enough here. Jordan Wright really, really doesn’t like people getting in his face, so even if he does manage to control distance early, Marquez is going to get to him eventually. I don’t even think he’ll need his usual heroic comeback this time, so you can bet on “The Cuban Missile Crisis” with confidence.
Point: Ladd has terrible weight management, hasn’t fought in nearly two years after blowing up her knee, is stepping up on short notice, and nearly killed herself trying to squeeze down to 135 pounds just two weeks ago. Counterpoint: Dumont isn’t very good. Beating an undersized, historically underwhelming Ashlee Evans-Smith and a Felicia Spencer who refused to use her wrestling doesn’t convince me that she can overcome a well-rounded and relentless fighter like Ladd, especially when the latter has five rounds to push the pace.
Therefore, bet accordingly.
UFC Vegas 40 Best Bets:
- Parlay — Bruno Silva and Ludovit Klein: $150 to make $178.13
- Parlay — Ramazan Emeev and Julian Marquez: $158.10 to make $150
- Parlay — Manon Fiorot and Aspen Ladd: $150 to make $228
There are a few good fights to be had this weekend with UFC Vegas 40, at least. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 40 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
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