Two of the sport’s fiercest ground-and-pounders collide at UFC Vegas 15 inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday (Nov. 28, 2020) when Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis look to secure spots atop the Heavyweight queue at each others’ expense. Sixty pounds south, Anthony Smith steps up on short notice to face Devin Clark, while Parker Porter welcomes The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) and “Contender Series” veteran Josh Parisian to the Octagon in another clash of big boys.
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What Went Wrong at UFC 255?
Well, the Ariane Lipski and Louis Cosce plays didn’t pan out, but everything else did. Thanks to Alan Jouban’s aggression, Brandon Royval’s shoulder exploding (see it), and a few fence grabs from Deiveson Figueiredo, we came out well ahead.
UFC Vegas 15 Odds For The Undercard:
Ashlee Evans-Smith (-135) vs. Norma Dumont (+115)
Martin Day (-155) vs. Anderson dos Santos (+135)
Gina Mazany (-145) vs. Rachael Ostovich (+125)
Kai Kamaka III (-310) vs. Jonathan Pearce (+255)
Su Mudaerji (-320) vs. Malcolm Gordon (+260)
Luke Sanders (-140) vs Nathan Maness (+120)
Thoughts: Luke Sanders is this week’s pick of choice, with some potential assistance from Martin Day.
The last time Nathan Maness took on a UFC-caliber striking specialist, Taylor Lapilus demolished him in three rounds. For all his struggles, Sanders remains a heavy hitter with the tools to take apart “Mayhem” in similar fashion. If only people hadn’t cottoned onto that fact; “Cool Hand” Luke actually opened at +140, which would have been a delightful pick up.
While Anderson dos Santos has the tools to potentially exploit Martin Day’s shaky takedown defense, he failed to overcome an even worse defensive wrestler in Andre Ewell last time out. After seeing Day hold his own against a very capable grappler in Davey Grant last time out, I favor him to take apart the Brazilian at long range.
Besides those guys, Kai Kamaka wouldn’t be the worst parlay stuffer. His wrestling and boxing technique are a cut above Jonathan Pearce’s.
UFC Vegas 15 Odds For The Main Card:
Curtis Blaydes (-360) vs. Derrick Lewis (+300)
Anthony Smith (-140) vs. Devin Clark (+120)
Josh Parisian (-230) vs. Parker Porter (+190)
Amir Albazi (-110) vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (-110)
Miguel Baeza (-155) vs. Takashi Sato (+135)
Spike Carlyle (-170) vs. Bill Algeo (+150)
Thoughts: Devin Clark seems like he wouldn’t be the worst underdog pick, and I had (emphasis on the past tense) Amir Albazi beating Zhalgas Zhumagulov by more than those 50:50 odds would suggest
Anthony Smith’s defensive wrestling is better than it used to be, but he still spends an unreasonable amount of time on his back, and if there’s one thing “Brown Bear” can do, it’s grind people into oblivion. The only people Clark has failed to take down in the UFC are the current Light Heavyweight champion and one of the division’s best prospects in Aleksandar Rakic, whom you may recall dominating Smith last time out. The possibility of Clark slogging his way to victory is enough to merit a small investment.
Though Zhumagulov has an ostensible edge in explosiveness, he looks fairly outgunned in the wrestling against Amir Albazi, having struggled with similar levels of takedown prowess in the past. Albazi also looks to have enough of a technical edge on the feet to hold his own there, at least enough so that Zhumagulov can’t offset the time he spends on his back with eye-catching bombs. You can parlay him with Curtis Blaydes, who is going to maul Derrick Lewis on the mat, to get positive odds.
UFC Vegas 15 Best Bets:
- Parlay — Luke Sanders and Martin Day: Bet $40 to make $72.80
- Parlay — Devin Clark and Kai Kamaka III: Bet $30 to make $57.30
Parlay-Amir Albazi and Curtis Blaydes: $40 to make $57.60Nevermind, Albazi’s opponent had passport issues. Instead:
- Parlay — Curtis Blaydes and Luke Sanders: Bet $40 to make $47.62
It may not be the most stacked card in the world, but UFC Vegas 15 features some match ups here you absolutely do not want to miss. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 15 fight card this weekend, starting with the ESPN+/ESPN2 “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ESPN+/ESPN2 10 p.m. ET.
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