Grappling legend Ronaldo Souza will look to follow in the footsteps of countryman Thiago Santos this Saturday (Nov. 16, 2019) when he moves up to Light Heavyweight to challenge top contender Jan Blachowicz in the main event of UFC Fight Night 164, which takes place inside Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Fellow Brazilian mixed martial arts (MMA) legend “Shogun” Rua co-features against submission specialist Paul Craig and Charles Oliveira attempts to keep his momentum going against the dangerous Jared Gordon.
We’re closing in on Thanksgiving, which means political discussions with relatives. I’m sure a bit of extra money could help soften the blow, though.
What Went Wrong at UFC Moscow?
Last week should have been a $100+ profit — Davey Grant, Magomed Ankalaev, and Rustam Khabilov all performed up to expectations. Unfortunately, the judges screwed Klidson Abreu and, more importantly, us. We still came out ahead, just not nearly as much as we deserved to.
UFC Fight Night 164 Odds For The Under Card:
James Krause (-185) vs. Sergio Moraes (+160)
Ricardo Ramos (-280) vs. Eduardo Garagorri (+240)
Francisco Trinaldo (-125) vs. Bobby Green (+105)
Warlley Alves (-120) vs. Randy Brown (EVEN)
Douglas Andrade (-240) vs. Renan Barao (+200)
Veronica Macedo (-125) vs. Ariane Lipski (+105)
Tracy Cortez (-200) vs. Vanessa Melo (+170)
Thoughts: We’ve got a proper treasure trove here because there’s value in five of these seven fights. Let’s start from the top.
James Krause is on a tear, but he’s still a natural Lightweight with historically weak takedown defense going against one of the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu artists in the sport. If Moraes was more willing to actually use his grappling rather than brawl to his heart’s content, I’d tell you to hammer this line; as is, go moderate. “The Panther” did lean on his jiu-jitsu against Ben Saunders and Anthony Rocco Martin, so there’s a decent enough chance he actually fights smart.
Eduardo Garagorri built his record against extremely low-level competition and is easy to take down, both very worrying traits to have against a submission artist of Ricardo Ramos’ caliber. There’s admittedly a teeny bit of danger in that Ramos is moving up in weight, but the style match up favors the Brazilian so heavily that he’s worth the investment.
We’re years past Renan Barao being an elite fighter, and to top things off, he can’t take punches like he used to. His opponent, Douglas Andrade, hits ludicrously hard and will not have a difficult time finding the former champ’s chin. Therefore, bank on the quick finish.
Ariane Lipski may be winless (0-2) in the Octagon, but Veronica Macedo is 1-3, the only win a submission off of her back. “The Violence Queen” was impressive enough in her pre-UFC tenure for me to not lose faith in her, and her considerable edge in striking should carry her to a dominant victory.
Tracy Cortez is an excellent pick up, a talented and relentless wrestler with the quality gas tank to stay in her opponent’s face all night. Vanessa Melo, though a decent counterpuncher, doesn’t have anywhere near the firepower needed to keep the “Contender Series” alum off of her. In short, Cortez mauls her in the clinch and on the ground.
UFC Fight Night 164 Odds For The Main Card:
Jan Blachowicz (-200) vs. Ronaldo Souza (+170)
Mauricio Rua (-260) vs. Paul Craig (+200)
Charles Oliveira (-355) vs. Jared Gordon (+295)
Andre Muniz (-115) vs. Antonio Arroyo (-105)
Markus Perez (-125) vs. Wellington Turman (+105)
Thoughts: Two elite submission artists are in for two very different nights.
Recommending a bet on Jan Blachowicz is actually a clever tactic. I really want Jacare to win and I can’t predict Blachowicz’s fights to save my life; therefore, by picking the Pole to win, I guarantee either a profit or a Jacare victory. Both are of equal value to me, so let’s do it.
If you want a technical explanation, well, Blachowicz has the size, cardio and durability advantages.
There’s no shrewdness involved in betting on the card’s biggest favorite, but how do I pass this up? Gordon is a pressure-focused wrestle-boxer, the exact same breed of fighter than Oliveira has historically mangled. Gordon, who faces a serious reach disadvantage, will either get chewed up on the feet or guillotined into submission when he tries to shoot. Use “Do Bronx” to squeeze more value out of Lipski.
UFC Fight Night 164 Best Bets:
- Single bet — Sergio Moraes: Bet $30 to make $48
- Parlay — Ricardo Ramos and Jan Blachowicz: Bet $40 to make $41.60
- Parlay — Douglas Andrade and Tracy Cortez: Bet $50 to make $56.50
- Parlay — Ariane Lipski and Charles Oliveira: Bet $50 to make $81.50
It’s our last UFC event until December ... so be sure to enjoy it. See you Saturday, Maniacs!
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Fight Night 164 fight card this weekend RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+“Prelims” that are scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. ET, then the main card portion that will also stream on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET.
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