ESPN+ host’s the first Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) offering of 2019 this Saturday (Jan. 19, 2019) as T.J. Dillashaw drops down to challenge Henry Cejudo for the Flyweight title inside Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. Also on tap is the Octagon debut of Greg Hardy after a trio of rapid knockouts and the latest from top Lightweight prospect Gregor Gillespie.

Having to juggle yet another online subscription (free trial here) to quench your mixed martial arts (MMA) thirst is obnoxious, but let’s see if we can’t get it to pay for itself.

What Went Wrong at UFC 232?

Amanda Nunes. I straight-up underestimated her, and her dominant thrashing of Cyborg (watch it) undid the hard work Walt Harris and Curtis Millender put in. Ending the year on a loss sucks, but we’re still well in the green.

UFC On ESPN+ 1 Odds For The Undercard:

Alexander Hernandez (-190) vs. Donald Cerrone (+165)
Ariane Lipski (-210) vs. Joanne Calderwood (+175)
Alonzo Menifield (-260) vs. Vinicius Moreira (+220)
Cory Sandhagen (-485) vs. Mario Bautista (+385)
Te Edwards (-135) vs. Dennis Bermudez (+115)
Geoff Neal (-175) vs. Belal Muhammad (+155)
Kyle Stewart (-160) vs. Chance Rencountre (+130)

Thoughts: This will be one of the few times that betting on someone who’s on a four-fight losing streak is justified. Dennis Bermudez got robbed in each of his last three fights and is going against a young prospect with lots of potential he’s yet to live up to. Edwards looked worryingly green against Don Madge last time out and has yet to see a fight last longer than six minutes; Bermudez is a relentless bastard, if nothing else, and shouldn’t be overlooked.

There’s an annoying little voice in my head yelling at me to bet on Donald Cerrone, too, and though I generally don’t negotiate with terrorists, the little prick has a point this time. Cerrone’s only Lightweight losses since 2013 came against Rafael dos Anjos, and he’s smashed up some quality grinders in that span. His four Welterweight losses came against top-flight strikers with the size and adaptability to exploit the holes in his game, neither of which Hernandez offers. I’d be even more confident if it was five rounds, but I do think Cerrone can still play spoiler.

UFC On ESPN+ 1 Odds For The Main Card:

T.J. Dillashaw (-210) vs. Henry Cejudo (+175)
Greg Hardy (-510) vs. Allen Crowder (+405)
Gregor Gillespie (-510) vs. Yancy Medeiros (+405)
Joseph Benavidez (-235) vs. Dustin Ortiz (+195)
Paige VanZant (-155) vs. Rachael Ostovich (+135)
Glover Teixeira (-120) vs. Karl Roberson (EVEN)

Thoughts: Not looking terribly fruitful, folks. You might could try parlaying Jose Benavidez with the two -510 guys to get even odds, but that feels less like a strategic move and more like the sort of thing your rich asshole friend who says he’s a great gambler would recommend. Also, I feel like that’s just begging the Just Bleed Gods for a catastrophic upset.

UFC On ESPN+ 1 Best Bets:

• Single bet — Dennis Bermudez: Bet $40 to make $46
• Single bet — Donald Cerrone: Bet $30 to make $49.50

Its wonky broadcast structure notwithstanding, UFC on ESPN+ 1’s got the name value and match ups to make it worth watching. See you Saturday, Maniacs!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC on ESPN+ 1 results on fight night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you’ve got riding on the sportsbook.