clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

UFC Fight Night 128 odds: Latest Vegas lines and betting guide for ‘Barboza vs Lee’

Get a detailed breakdown of the betting lines for UFC Fight Night 128, which is set to hit Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., this weekend (Sat., April 21, 2018), including best bets, underdogs, favorites and much more!

March Madness Viewing Party At The Westgate Las Vegas Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images

One of the Lightweight division’s most fearsome strikers, Edson Barboza (No. 4), faces one of its top wrestlers, Kevin Lee (No. 7), inside Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., this Saturday (April 21, 2018), headlining UFC Fight Night 128 on FOX Sports 1. One fight prior, Frankie Edgar and Cub Swanson attempt to rebound from recent stoppage losses at each others’ expense, while prospects Chase Sherman and Allen Crowder duke it out up at Heavyweight.

UFC Fight Night 128 features a a solid line up of fights; therefore, let’s find out if it’s a lucrative one.

What Went Wrong at UFC on FOX 29?

As I said in the piece, putting a bet on Marvin Vettori was less about surety in his victory and more about the fact that the possibility of an upset wasn’t reflected in the odds. He wound up giving Israel Adesanya a tough out, even taking two rounds on a judge’s scorecard, so it’s not a recommendation I regret.

UFC Fight Night 128 Odds For The Undercard:

Ryan LaFlare (-145) vs. Alex Garica (+125)
Magomed Bibulatov (-360) vs. Yuta Sasaki (+300)
Siyar Bahadurzada (-115) vs. Luan Chagas (-105)
Corey Anderson (-120) vs. Patrick Cummins (EVEN)
Aspen Ladd (-150) vs. Leslie Smith (+130)
Ricky Simon (-165) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+145)
Tony Martin (-245) vs. Keita Nakamura (+205)

Thoughts: Two underdog bets stand out to me, although I’ve got more faith in the former than the latter: Luan Chagas and Leslie Smith.

Since starching Paulo Thiago in terrifying fashion, Siyar Bahadurzada has been humiliated by Dong Hyun Kim, beaten in a snoozer by John Howard, and come out on top against a free-falling Brandon Thatch and a gassed Rob Wilkinson. He’s not terribly fast, nor does he have much variety in his striking beyond straight-armed haymakers. Chagas is a decade younger than him, much faster and has a much deeper arsenal both on the feet and on the mat. In other words, bank on the Brazilian.

Aspen Ladd can beat Leslie Smith if she hits consistent takedowns. The problem is that she’s got porous striking defense and a willingness to mix it up, which sounds like a recipe for disaster against one of the bigger hitters in the division. Further, she’s got almost no chance of finishing the iron-tough “Peacemaker,” who can match her pace and deal plenty of damage to the body. Ladd’s young enough to have improved, but if the Ladd who fought Lina Lansberg shows up, I have Smith breaking her.

UFC Fight Night 128 Odds For The Main Card:

Kevin Lee (-145) vs. Edson Barboza (+125)
Frankie Edgar (-230) vs. Cub Swanson (+190)
Justin Willis (-360) vs. Chase Sherman (+300)
Thiago Santos (-220) vs. David Branch (+180)
Aljamain Sterling (-115) vs. Brett Johns (-105)
Dan Hooker (-355) vs. Jim Miller (+295)

Thoughts: Nothing terribly exploitable on the main card, I’m afraid. The only one who stands out to me is David Branch — his sole knockout loss came via slam and he survived to a decision against Anthony Johnson. That said, “Marreta” Santos is on a murderous streak right now, so any investment in that match had better be minimal.

UFC Fight Night 128 Best Bets:

  • Single bet -- Luan Chagas: Bet $84 to make $80
  • Single bet -- Leslie Smith: Bet $40 to make $52

UFC Fight Night 128 features two Top 10-ranked Lightweight contenders, a pair of Top 10-ranked Featherweight studs, and all kinds of fun match ups make this a fine offering. See you Saturday, Manaics!

Remember that will deliver live UFC Fight Night 128 results on fight night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you’ve got riding on the sportsbook.

Initial Investment For 2018: $300
Current Total: $740.91

Sign up for the newsletter Sign up for the MMA Mania Daily Roundup newsletter!

A daily roundup of all your fighting news from MMA Mania