Defense will not be on the menu this Saturday evening (April 14, 2018) when Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje headline UFC on FOX 29 inside Gila River Arena in Glendale, Ariz., leading a 14-fight card filled with quality mixed martial arts (MMA) match ups.
UFC on FOX 29’s main card will also see Alex Oliveira step up to face Carlos Condit on short notice, Israel Adesanya look to continue his rise at Marvin Vettori’s expense, and Cortney Casey look to bounce back from defeat against Michelle Waterson.
I’d figure out a clever segue, but it’s a bit late, so let’s just get on with it:
What Went Wrong At UFC 223?
Well, it doesn’t help when one of your key bets gets glass blasted in his face with a metal dolly by a pissed-off Irishman and has to withdraw. Thanks, Conor.
In my (additional) defense, I don’t think there’s a pundit alive who predicted that Olivier Aubin-Mercier would stop Evan Dunham with strikes. It was a hell of a liver shot and a seriously impressive win for “The Quebec Kid,” whom I’ve bet against several times to no avail. I should probably stop doing that.
UFC On FOX 29 Odds For The Undercard:
Antonio Carlos Junior (-270) vs. Tim Boetsch (+230)
Muslim Salikhov (-165) vs. Ricky Rainey (+145)
Wilson Reis (-140) vs. John Moraga (+120)
Brad Tavares (-140) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (+120)
Gilbert Burns (-525) vs. Dan Moret (+415)
Shana Dobson (-115) vs. Lauren Mueller (-105)
Dhiego Lima (-110) vs. Yushin Okami (-110)
Arjan Bhullar (-365) vs. Adam Wieczorek (+305)
Matthew Lopez (-130) vs. Alejandro Perez (+110)
Luke Sanders (-420) vs. Patrick Williams (+335)
Thoughts: Ten “Prelims” undercard bouts and not a one is worth betting the house on. It’s always a shame when the bookies know what they’re doing. You could probably squeeze some value out of Muslim Salikhov and John Moraga, though.
Salikhov is legitimately one of the scariest Welterweight strikers on the planet, and while Rainey has some nifty trips in the clinch, he’s not the sort of overpowering takedown artist Alex Garcia is. He’s going to have to strike with Salikhov, and even a 10-inch reach advantage isn’t enough to save him from “The King of Kung Fu,” especially not on a week’s notice.
Betting on Moraga is always, well, a gamble, but Reis’ durability issues appear to have come to a head. He gets dropped approximately 1.5 times per fight and, against Henry Cejudo, he finally stayed down. Moraga’s deeply flawed, but scrappy as hell; at this point in Reis’ career, I can’t pick the Brazilian against a heavy hitter. Therefore, a moderate bet on “Chicano John” makes sense.
UFC On FOX 29 Odds For The Main Card:
Dustin Poierir (-145) v. Justin Gaethje (+125)
Alex Oliveira (-230) vs. Carlos Condit (+190)
Israel Adesanya (-260) vs. Marvin Vettori (+220)
Cortney Casey (-125) vs. Michelle Waterson (+105)
Thoughts: As a rule, I generally don’t bet on people I do not believe have at least a 50 percent chance to win, but the line on Marvin Vettori is just too tempting.
Israel Adesanya’s takedown defense and defensive grappling are better than the average kickboxing convert’s, but they’re not bulletproof. Vettori is by far the best submission artist he’s ever faced and, while the Italian isn’t the cleanest wrestler in the world, he’s as tough as they come and utterly fearless. I would not be surprised at all to see Adesanya’s rise hit a serious bump against Vettori, so be sure you’re in a position to benefit.
UFC On FOX 29 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Muslim Salikhov: Bet $82.50 to make $50
- Single bet -- John Moraga: Bet $40 to make $48
- Single bet -- Marvin Vettori: Bet $30 to make $66
UFC on FOX 29 has quite a few fights here you cannot afford to miss. Be there or be ... disappointed, I guess. See you Saturday, Maniacs.