Years of speculation come to rest this Saturday night (Oct. 6, 2018) as Lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor finally square off in UFC 229’s pay-per-view (PPV) main event for the undisputed 155-pound title inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The mixed martial arts (MMA) superstars will be joined by Tony Ferguson and Anthony Pettis, who will battle it out for the next crack at the winner, as well as Ovince Saint Preux vs. Dominick Reyes and Alexander Volkov vs. Derrick Lewis.
Let’s skip the formalities and just get to the analysis!
What Went Wrong at UFC Fight Night 137?
I made a series of assumptions that proved unwise. First off, I assumed that Sergio Moraes would be as happy to brawl and reticent to use his grappling as he’s been in the past. Second, I assumed that Francisco Trinaldo would maintain his unwillingness to utilize body shots despite their obvious effectiveness. Both proved categorically false, as the Brazilians finally fought up to their potential and delivered stunning victories.
UFC 229 Odds For The Undercard:
Sergio Pettis (-150) vs. Jussier Formiga (+130)
Vicente Luque (-800) vs. Jalin Turner (+550)
Aspen Ladd (-160) vs. Tonya Evinger (+140)
Alan Patrick (-255) vs. Scott Holtzman (+215)
Yana Kunitskaya (-195) vs. Lina Länsberg (+168)
Nik Lentz (-225) vs. Gray Maynard (+185)
Ryan LaFlare (-140) vs. Tony Martin (+120)
Thoughts: Jussier Formiga is the star of the show, with Lina Lansberg in a bit part.
Sergio Pettis is coming off the best win of his career over a man in Joseph Benavidez who dominated Formiga early in the latter’s UFC run. That said, Benavidez had been out of action for 1.5 years and looked much rougher with his striking than usual, yet still managed to take down Pettis twice. “The Phenom” has been taken down by every UFC opponent he’s faced besides Chris Cariaso, and Formiga sports some of the best back control the Octagon has ever seen. Sure, Pettis is good on the mat, but so were Zach Makovsky, Wilson Reis, Dustin Ortiz and all the others he has dominated in the grappling. The Brazilian deserves to be the favorite here, so trust in his skills.
I’ve never been greatly impressed by Kunitskaya, whose record was largely built against hopeless competition. She does her best work in the clinch, where Lansberg excels, and the latter’s takedown defense and scrambling looked stout against Gina Mazany last time out. It’s worth a minor investment.
UFC 229 Odds For The Main Card:
Khabib Nurmagomedov (-160) vs. Conor McGregor (+150)
Tony Ferguson (-360) vs. Anthony Pettis (+300)
Dominick Reyes (-225) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (+185)
Alexander Volkov (-175) vs. Derrick Lewis (+155)
Felice Herrig (-130) vs. Michele Waterson (+110)
Thoughts: Khabib Nurmagomedov is going to smash Conor McGregor.
Even at the best of times, Nurmagomedov is likely the division’s worst match up for McGregor, a durable and relentless takedown artist who can go five hard rounds. These are not the best of times — McGregor has not stepped into the cage since Nov. 2016 and his only real experience against dedicated wrestlers came against Chad Mendes in 2015. McGregor needs a one-punch finish, and he’s not going to get it before Nurmagomedov gets his hands on him and begins the smashing process.
Meanwhile, a little bit on Derrick Lewis seems wise, too. Volkov gets stronger as the fight progresses, but appears vulnerable to the early takedown, and Lewis really only needs to get on top once. “Black Beast” is too old and inconsistent to bet the house on, but he has a chance.
UFC 229 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Jussier Formiga: Bet $100 to make $130
- Single bet -- Lina Lansberg: Bet $40 to make $67.20
- Single bet -- Khabib Nurmagomedov: Bet $100 to make $62.50
- Single bet -- Derrick Lewis: Bet $30 to make $46.50
Do not miss this: It’s going to be bananas!
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC 229 results on fight night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you’ve got riding on the sportsbook.