The guard may change this Saturday (Feb. 3, 2018) in Belem, Brazil, as Lyoto Machida looks for his first win since 2014 against rising star Eryk Anders in the main event of UFC Fight Night 125, which will emanate from inside Arena Guilherme Paraense and air on FOX Sports 1 (main card start time 10 p.m. ET).
The FOX Sports 1-televised event co-stars Pedro Munhoz and John Dodson — who are both looking to stand out in the volatile Bantamweight division — and former title challenger Valentina Shevchenko, who makes her Flyweight debut against Rio native Priscilla Cachoeira.
We’re off to a good start this year, so let’s see if we can’t keep it up.
What Went Wrong at UFC on FOX 27?
I think the judges got it right in the Vinc Pichel-Joaquim Silva fight. Pichel handily controlled the first three minutes of round one and clearly won the second round. I do not, however, think they got it right in Ji Yeon Kim vs. Justine Kish. Kish exceeded my expectations and deserved the win. Still, a win’s a win, I suppose.
UFC Fight Night 125 Odds For The Undercard:
Tim Means (-200) vs. Sergio Moraes (+170)
Alan Patrick (-230) vs. Damir Hadzovic (+190)
Marlon Vera (-135) vs. Douglas Andrade (+115)
Joe Soto (-120) vs. Iuri Alcantara (EVEN)
Deiveson Figueiredo (-145) vs. Joseph Morales (+125)
Polyana Viana (-370) vs. Maia Stevenson (+310)
Thoughts: As far as favorites go, Tim Means and Alan Patrick look like quality investments, while Douglas Andrade is a tempting underdog.
Sergio Moraes is an absolute beast on the ground and I am a big fan. At the same time, I recognize that he has no distance takedown game to speak of, is easy to hit, isn’t all that durable, and is giving up a lot of length and reach to a truly punishing striker. I fully expect Means to demolish him on the feet ... so bet on it.
Though Patrick is nobody’s idea of must-watch television, he’s an extremely effective grinder with a wild amount of reach for the weight class. He easily overpowered a very capable striker in Stevie Ray and I don’t expect Hadzovic, who had no answer for Marcin Held’s takedowns until he timed one badass knee, to fare much better. Patrick, as usual, earns no fans but does earn his win bonus.
Douglas Andrade’s power is downright frightening for the weight class — dude has concrete in his hands And while Zubaira Tukhugov and Rob Font demonstrated that he can be defused with clever stand up, Vera is not that level of striker. He struggled to keep John Lineker away despite Lineker showing almost none of his characteristic berserker fury. Vera does not have the tools to take him down and every minute he spends on the feet is tempting disaster. In other words, Andrade by starching.
UFC Fight Night 125 Odds For The Main Card:
Eryk Anders (-270) vs. Lyoto Machida (+230)
John Dodson (-150) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+130)
Valentina Shevchenko (-900) vs. Priscilla Cachoeira (+600)
Michel Prazeres (-150) vs. Des Green (+130)
Marcelo Golm (-170) vs. Timothy Johnson (+150)
Thiago Santos (-270) vs. Anthony Smith (+230)
Thoughts: Outside of his two fights with Demetrious Johnson, every single one of Dodson’s losses since 2007 has been a split decision. The guy may be not much more than a nuclear left hand attached to a bundle of fast-twitch reflexes, but he’s still better than most bantamweights in the world. While Pedro Munhoz is on an excellent streak, he’s a fairly straightforward slugger on the feet and lacks the takedown prowess or raw power to impose his grappling on Dodson. The stylistic matchup favors “The Magician” enough for me to recommend a bet.
UFC Fight Night 125 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Tim Means: Bet $100 to make $50
- Parlay -- Alan Patrick and John Dodson: Bet $70 to make 97.30
- Single bet -- Douglas Andrade: Bet $50 to make $57.50
It’s, well, it’s something. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC Fight Night 125 results on fight night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you’ve got riding on the sportsbook.