UFC Fight Night 114 odds, betting guide

Young guns take center stage this Saturday evening when Brandon Moreno and Sergio Pettis headline UFC Fight Night 114, live and free from Mexico City.

Elsewhere on the card, local favorite Alexa Grasso takes on Randa Markos, while Alan Jouban squares off with Niko Price in a clash of welterweight knockout artists.

It’s another Saturday evening of excessive violence and, as such, represents another opportunity to make quite a bit of money. Here’s how.

What Went Wrong at UFC 214:

Okay, permit me two sentences of whining: Eric Shelton beat Jarred Brooks 29-28. All but two members of the listed MMA media agree with me.

Now that that’s done, let’s talk. No bullshit, just straight talk. I know that I’m not good at this anymore. I have no idea why. I’m trying. I’m agonizing over these decisions, watching tape, doing everything I can to give decent advice.

I wasn’t asked to do this column. I volunteered because it seemed like something fun to do. I keep doing it because I legitimately want to help people make money. I want to make people’s lives better, even if it’s just by a minuscule amount. When one of my recommendations collapses, it hurts.

If this last $100 goes, I’m done.

I want to keep doing this. Even if, as one particularly vitriolic comment suggested, the best course of action is betting on the opposite of my recommendations, I want to help people. That’s why I’m doing this.

Undercard:

Jack Hermansson (-265) vs. Brad Scott (+205)

Dustin Ortiz (-250) vs. Hector Sandoval (+190)

Rani Yahya (-165) vs. Enrique Briones (+135)

Jose Alberto Quiñones (-215) vs. Diego Rivas (+170)

Roberto Sanchez (-145) vs. Joseph Morales (+115)

Jordan Rinaldi (-240) vs. Alvaro Herrera (+180)

Thoughts: Jack Hermansson and Rani Yahya. Trust me.

“The Joker” is every bit the well-rounded threat that Scott is, only faster and with better footwork. He’s got a quality chin on him, too, which mitigates the threat of a one-hitter quitter. He has more tools, greater physical gifts, and significantly more fluidity in his game than his English foe. Bank on it.

Rani Yahya is, at the end of the day, a somewhat lesser version of Demian Maia. Those who can exhaust him during his relentless pursuit of takedowns will inevitably find success. Those who can’t will either find themselves on the wrong end of a rear-naked choke or two rounds in the hole against someone too wily to get finished late. Briones, who has spent the majority of his UFC career getting smashed to bits by powerhouse strikers, doesn’t fit the mold of those who can trouble Yahya. A mid-sized bet on the Brazilian makes sense.

Main Card:

Brandon Moreno (-170) vs. Sergio Pettis (+150)

Alexa Grasso (-155) vs. Randa Markos (+135)

Alan Jouban (-155) vs. Niko Price (+135)

Martin Bravo (-310) vs. Humberto Bandenay (+255)

Sam Alvey (-145) vs. Rashad Evans (+125)

Alejandro Perez (-115) vs. Andre Soukhamthath (-105)

Thoughts: Make the most of Alan Jouban’s odds. You can probably put a dollop on Sergio Pettis as well, if you’re feeling so inclined.

The only two strikers to fell Alan Jouban were Albert Tumenov, who hits like a freight train carrying other, smaller freight trains, and Gunnar Nelson, who has a knack for delivering bone-crushing punches against supposedly superior boxers. Price has power, but he was losing to an extremely raw striker in Alex Morono before scoring the knockout. Jouban showed he can handle brawlers in his fight with Mike Perry and I fully expect him to do the same here.

Pettis is more of a gut feeling than anything, but it’s worth noting that his key issue is his chin and Moreno is not a power striker. “The Phenom” figures to be the better striker and can hold his own on the mat. He’s not someone to stake your mortgage on, of course, but Pettis should not be written off here.

Best bets for UFC Fight Night 114:

Parlay-Jack Hermansson and Rani Yahya: $40 to make $48.40

Single bet-Alan Jouban: $40 to make $25.80

Single bet-Sergio Pettis: $20 to make $30

Two standout flyweights in the main event and a bevy of quality matchups beforehand? Sounds like a great Saturday to me. See you then, Maniacs.

Initial Investment For 2017: $200 (+$200 infusion)

Current Total: $105.16