The big boys take the wheel this Saturday evening when heavyweight sluggers Derrick Lewis and Mark Hunt headline UFC Fight Night 110, live and free on Fox Sports 1 from Auckland, New Zealand.
Aussie Judo star Dan Kelly will attempt to continue his streak against Derk Brunson in the co-feature, while Dan “The Hangman” Hooker moves back to lightweight to take on Ross Pearson.
It’ll be another month before you have to shell out for a pay-per-view, so let’s start building some capital.
What Went Wrong at UFC 212?
Well, for one, Max Holloway did a far better job of shutting down Aldo’s kicking game than I expected. Aldo’s increased unwillingness to use his low kicks has been rather troubling; though he got countered on the first one, the fact that he made no attempt to try another despite his counter-punching becoming increasingly ineffective is somewhat baffling. The man built his throne out of a huge arsenal and adaptability, after all.
Still, major props to Holloway. I think he’s got a long reign in him.
As far as the other foul-up, I’m inclined to agree with the commentators’ assessment that Deiveson Figueiredo fights down to the level of his opponents. The fighter that thrashed Marco Antonio Beltran on Saturday is not the same one who went life-and-death with Denis Araujo last September.
That’s the trouble with betting on/against fighters making their UFC debuts. You never know what you’ll get.
Now, onto business.
Damien Brown (-115) vs. Vinc Pichel (-105)
John Moraga (-155) vs. Ashkan Mokhtarian (+135)
Dominique Steele (-165) vs. Luke Jumeau (+145)
Zak Ottow (-300) vs. Kiichi Kunimoto (+250)
J.J. Aldrich (-235) vs. Chan-Mi Jeon (+195)
Dong Hyun Kim (-150) vs. Thibault Gouti (+130)
Thoughts: Vinc Pichel and Kiichi Kunimoto, step on up.
Nobody can deny Damien Brown’s gutsiness. He came back from a horrific first round to defeat Jon Tuck and that deserves respect. At the same time, Tuck dominated him until he gassed and he had no answers for the rudimentary takedown game of Alan Patrick. Pichel can wrestle and he can do so for all fifteen minutes; that’s enough for me to pick him, ridiculous layoff be damned.
Sure, Kunimoto hasn’t impressed at all in his UFC career, but +250 is a little ridiculous considering he’s facing a short-notice opponent who’s moving up in weight. In addition, Ottow’s grappling-centric style plays into Kunimoto’s hands; limited as he is on the feet, “Strasser” has legit BJJ and constantly looks for takedowns. Worth a look, at the very least.
Derrick Lewis (-120) vs. Mark Hunt (EVEN)
Derek Brunson (-265) vs Daniel Kelly (+225)
Dan Hooker (-200) vs. Ross Pearson (+170)
Ion Cutelaba (-200) vs. Luis Henrique da Silva (+170)
Tim Elliott (-235) vs. Ben Nguyen (+195)
Alex Volkanovski (-275) vs. Mizuto Hirota (+235)
Thoughts: I recognize that Ross Pearson is on the downswing, but I don’t see the logic of making him such a large underdog to a guy who’s 3-3 in the UFC and moving up from featherweight. Dan Hooker has practically no defense and has been touched up by far lesser strikers. Barring a traditional Pearson robbery, he’s worth looking into.
Besides Pearson, Alex Volkanovski and Ion Cutelaba look like decent investments. Volkanovski’s physical strength and takedown prowess present a serious challenge for Hirota and Cutelaba’s shown superior cardio, durability, and volume compared to “Frankenstein.”
Best bets for UFC Fight Night 110:
Single bet-Vinc Pichel: $20 to make $19.04
Single bet-Kiichi Kunimoto: $15 to make $37.50
Single bet-Ross Pearson: $20 to make $34
Parlay-Ion Cutelaba and Alex Volkanovski: $19.51 to make $20.48
Big men, big violence, no charge. Can’t beat that; see you Saturday, Maniacs.
Initial Investment For 2017: $200
Current Total: $74.51