Two destructive strikers will do battle this Saturday evening (Sept. 24, 2016) when former Strikeforce and current Invicta Featherweight champion Cristiane "Cyborg" Justino welcomes Muay Thai import Lina Lansberg to the Octagon. The 140-pound Catchweight clash will headline UFC Fight Night 95, which will take place inside Nilson Nelson Gymnasium in Brasilia, Brazil, airing live and free on FOX Sports 1.
In the co-featured fight of the night, former Featherweight champion Renan Barao looks to rebound from his upset loss to Jeremy Stephens at the expense of Phillipe Nover. That’s not even mentioning the hard-hitting Heavyweight showdown between Roy Nelson vs. Antonio Silva, as well as the Lightweight scrap that pits Francisco Trinaldo opposite Paul Felder, both fights with the potential for fireworks.
The majority of the card is free with the exception of the Fight Pass "Prelims." But, that’s no reason not to get money involved. Let’s see what kind of bargains we can drag kicking and screaming out of this card.
UFC Fight Night 95 Odds For The Undercard:
Gilbert Burns (-190) vs. Michel Prazeres (+165)
Rani Yahya (-140) vs. Michinori Tanaka (+120)
Jussier da Silva (-200) vs. Dustin Ortiz (+170)
Erick Silva (-145) vs. Luan Chagas (+125)
Stevie Ray (-175) vs. Alan Patrick (+155)
Vicente Luque (-450) vs. Hector Urbina (+360)
Glaico Franca (-130) vs. Gregor Gillespie (+110)
Thoughts: Yep, we can definitely work with this. Michinori Tanaka, Luan Chaas, and Glaico Franca are all worth a look.
I know that my relentless fangirling towards JMMA and Asian fighters in general is something of a running gag, but I’ve been very good about keeping it in check recently. I called Masanori Kanehara’s upset of Alex Caceres and correctly recommended a quality bargain in Doo Ho Choi vs. Thiago Tavares. Trust me when I say that I have reasons for picking Tanaka. Yahya’s gas tank is suspect and Tanaka has the scrambling ability to stay out of trouble, plus top-notch submission defense and the cardio to, unlike recent Yahya victim Matthew Lopez, properly exploit that vulnerability. He’s a solid pick, so put a bit on him.
Silva’s ship has sailed. Sure, the worst opponent he’s lost to is Nordine Taleb, but all of his UFC wins have come over people who are no longer with the promotion. His best is probably Jason High, a natural lightweight, and none of them could strike as well as Chagas. "Tarzan’s" a decent sleeper pick; don’t go all-in on him, as Silva’s still good for a highlight-reel moment once in a while, but don’t let him slip by.
Gillespie is a tremendous prospect whose collegiate wrestling accomplishments leave even fellow Edinboro alumnus Josh Koscheck’s in the dust. He’s also incredibly green and going up against a very capable lightweight. Franca’s easily the best jiu-jitsu artist "The Gift" has ever had to deal with and the latter’s struggles with maintaining dominant positions play right into "Nego’s" hands. The Brazilian is undervalued at -130; don’t pass him up.
UFC Fight Night 95 Odds For The Main Card:
Cristiane Justino (-130) vs. Lina Lansberg (+850)
Renan Barao (-460) vs. Phillipe Nover (+365)
Roy Nelson (-450) vs. Antonio Silva (+360)
Francisco Trinaldo (-130) vs. Paul Felder (+110)
Thiago Santos (-600) vs. Eric Spicely (+450)
Godofredo Castro (-150) vs. Mike De La Torre (+130)
Thoughts: Mike De La Torre really isn’t getting a fair shake here. Disregarding drug test shenanigans, he has three UFC losses. One was a split decision against Mark Bocek on short notice, another was a submission loss to top prospect Brian Ortega, and the third was a TKO loss to Maximo Blanco that even I, a staunch defender of early stoppages, have to admit was waved off too soon. The man has solid power in his hands and excellent takedown defense, both solid weapons against the chinny "Pepey." He should not be an underdog against Castro, who is the posterchild of "hit-and-miss."
Elsewhere, shoving Barao in with Glaico Franca gives positive odds. Get on that.
UFC Fight Night 95 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Michinori Tanaka: Bet $40 to make $48
- Single bet -- Luan Chagas: Bet $30 to make $37.50
- Single bet -- Mike De La Torre: Bet $40 to make $52
- Parlay -- Glaico Franca and Renan Barao: Bet $70 to make $80.50
There is no such thing as a "sure thing" in this world -- particularly in this sport -- but I think it’s safe to expect violence this weekend. See you Saturday, Maniacs! Remember, too, that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC Fight Night 95 results on fight night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.