UFC 201 predictions: 'Lawler vs Woodley' Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 1

Heavy hands! Two of the most fearsome sluggers in the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight division will lock horn this Saturday evening (July 30, 2016) when Welterweight champion Robbie Lawler looks for his third title defense against Tyron Woodley inside Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia.

In addition, "Thug" Rose Namajunas takes on Karolina Kowakiewicz in a Strawweight title eliminator and Matt Brown throws down with Jake Ellenberger in a delectable 170-pound style clash.

In addition to the five-fight pay-per-view (PPV), you can catch three "Prelims" undercard matches on Fight Pass and another four on FOX Sports 2. The former is the subject of tonight’s breakdowns, so let’s get cracking:

170 lbs.: Michael Graves vs. Bojan Velickovic

Michael Graves (6-0) opened American Top Team’s run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 21 on a sour note with a loss to Kamaru Usman, but redeemed himself later on with a comeback submission of Jason Jackson. In UFC itself, he’s edged out castmate Vicente Luque and tapped "Lookin’ for a Fight" product Randy Brown.

Three of his wins have come by (technical) knockout.

Bojan Velickovic (14-3) entered UFC on a four-fight win streak, bringing with him the RFA Welterweight title. This past April, he made his promotional debut at Middleweight with a narrow decision over Italy’s Alessio Di Chirico.

He stands four inches taller than Graves at 6’2."

Before Velickovic’s debut, I expressed doubts about how well the hulking Serb would do against an opponent he couldn’t outclass physically. My concerns were decently well-founded, as he had some issues with Di Chirico and ultimately escaped with a close decision. While he’ll do better at 170 pounds, I’m not convinced his strength can overcome Graves’ wrestling edge.

The ATT-trained product should be the better striker and better overall grappler. "Serbian Steel’s" physicality could present some hurdles, but none that Graves can’t overcome en route to a decision win.

Prediction: Graves via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Ryan Benoit vs. Fredy Serrano

Following his "Fight of the Night" debut against Josh Sampo, injuries kept Ryan Benoit (8-4) out of the cage for more than one year. He made a triumphant return by knocking out Sergio Pettis in March 2015, but fell short against Ben Nguyen the following November.

He replaces the injured Ray Borg on short notice.

Fredy Serrano (3-0) -- a 2008 freestyle wrestling Olympian -- entered TUF: "Latin America" as one of Team Fabricio Werdum’s best hopes before falling to eventual winner Alejandro Perez in his first bout. He’s found more success in UFC itself, knocking out Bentley Syler and stopping Yao Zhikui on an arm injury.

He will give up three inches of height to the 5’5" Benoit.

Serrano isn’t as screwed as he would have been against Borg, but he’s still in for a rough night. The Colombian is a full decade older than his opponent, who can dish out just as much hurt on the feet and likely stifle Serrano’s wrestling attack.

The height discrepancy might be what really does in Serrano because he doesn’t set up his strikes or takedowns particularly well. If he attempts to bully his way into range or throw something wild from too far out, Benoit’s very well-equipped to punish him. "Baby Face" brings his UFC record to 2-2 with a mid-round knockout.

Prediction: Benoit via second-round technical knockout

155 lbs.: Cezar Arzamendia vs. Damien Brown

Representing Paraguay on TUF: "Latin America 2," Cezar Arzamendia (7-2) knocked out Oliver Meza before tapping to eventual winner Enrique Barzola. He still got to join his castmates at UFC Fight Night 78, where Polo Reyes put him to sleep with first-round punches.

Four of his seven wins, including his last three, have come by submission.

Damien Brown (15-9) rebounded from a four-fight losing streak to rattle off five straight wins in his native Australia. When UFC made its way to Brisbane, Australia, he stepped up on short notice to face Alan Patrick and ultimately lost a unanimous decision.

"Beatdown" submitted eight opponents himself.

What stood out to me when I watched Arzamendia on TUF is the fact that he really has no idea what he’s doing on the feet. His punches on the show were some of the ugliest I can remember seeing in quite some time, so much so that I can’t in good conscience pick him even against the painfully mediocre Brown.

Arzamendia’s decent on the ground, but not to the extent that I can ignore his myriad other flaws. I expect the generally tough-to-finish Brown to control the fight on the feet before eventually locking up a submission following either a knockdown or takedown of his own.

Prediction: Brown via first-round submission

Four more UFC 201 "Prelims" fights to preview and predict tomorrow, including former co-headliner Wilson Reis against Hector Sandoval and the surging Nikita Krylov against Ed Herman.

See you there, Maniacs!

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 201 fight card, starting with the Fight Pass "Prelims" matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, and then the remaining under card balance on FOX Sports 2 at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET.