Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight veterans Dan Henderson and Tim Boetsch will collide TONIGHT (June 6, 2015) in the main event of UFC Fight Night 68, which takes place inside Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Henderson's career appears to be on its last legs, but "Hendo" will look to turn that around here by earning a victory over a Top 15-ranked opponent. Considering his recent record, pulling off the win may be his only option if he wants to continue competing inside the Octagon.
Similarly, Boetsch is in the middle of his own slide, even though he shouldn't be declining just yet. Like Henderson, Boetsch may be fighting for his UFC career in this main event showcase.
Both men should be quite motivated, so expect fireworks.
Now, let's take a look at the keys to victory for both fighters:
Dan Henderson
Record: 30-13
Key Wins: Mauricio Rua (UFC 139 and UFC Fight Night 38), Fedor Emelianenko (Strikeforce: Fedor vs Henderson), Rafael Cavalcante (Strikeforce: Feijao vs Henderson)
Key Losses: Vitor Belfort (UFC Fight Night 32), Gegard Mousasi (UFC on FOX 14), Lyoto Machida (UFC 157)
Keys To Victory: Henderson is a former Olympic wrestler with a monstrous right hand. However, at this point in his career, "Hollywood" relies almost entirely on the right hand.
Which, to his credit, has helped him score 14 knockout victories.
In this bout, Henderson should take the initiative and pressure Boetsch. If he does his usual "paw with the left hand and throw the right in every exchange" thing from distance, he'll probably get clinched up and find himself on the edge of Boetsch's punches.
Instead, Henderson should feint with his right and try to get Boetsch backing up. "The Barbarian" often backs straight up, so Henderson could catch him falling right into his overhand. If Boetsch attempts to stand his ground, Henderson will wind up in the clinch. While that's not the best case scenario for "Hendo," at least he's in range to land his best weapon.
Above all else, Henderson cannot just walk forward with his head duck and left arm extended. It's gotten him blasted twice now, and hopefully he won't make that mistake a third time.
VS.
Tim Boetsch
Record: 18-8
Key Wins: Yushin Okami (UFC 144), Hector Lombard (UFC 149), Brad Tavares (UFC Fight Night 68)
Key Losses: Luke Rockhold (UFC 172), Thales Leites (UFC 183), Costas Philippou (UFC 153)
Keys To Victory: Boetsch is an aggressive scrapper that does his best work in close range to his opponent. In addition to his dirty boxing and knee strikes, Boetsch is an effective clinch wrestler with slick trips and powerful throws.
In this bout, Boetsch should look to tire Henderson. To do so, he needs to push forward and move into the clinch as early as possible. At middleweight, it's unlikely that the 44 year old Henderson can wrestle effectively for more than a round, so Boetsch just needs to survive that time frame and make his opponent work.
Despite his decline, Henderson is still very dangerous. It would be foolish for Boetsch to stand at range with "Hendo" and risk swallowing an overhand, particularly since his defense isn't the best.
Closing the distance immediately is definitely the right move for "The Barbarian."
In addition, Boetsch should have opportunities to land his front kick prior to securing the clinch. If Henderson does his usual shuffle forward with his head ducked, that would be a great tool to jack his jaw with and force the former Olympian to stand up straighter.
Bottom Line: Both men are in desperate need of a victory and badly need to pull out of their current slide.
Without his famous durability and wrestling skills, Henderson is a much less dangerous opponent than he once was. If he loses here, there's a chance the UFC will try to force him into retirement. Alternatively, he could end up back with Scott Coker in Bellator.
Should Henderson pull off the upset victory, his UFC career is extended. For how much longer is anyone's guess, but he's no longer in immediate danger of the above happening.
While Tim Boetsch's UFC career is not in jeopardy just yet, it's been a long time since he's both looked good and secured a win. At this point, Henderson is very predictable, so Boetsch should be prepared. There's really no excuse to getting caught by Henderson's lone weapon anymore.
If Boetsch does secure a win, his position largely remains the same at the bottom of the top 15. Should he win this fight, he'll probably end up testing some up-and-coming middleweight on a win streak.
At UFC Fight Night 68, Dan Henderson and Tim Boetsch will clash in the main event. Which fighter will have his hand raised?