It's ... something? That's all I'll say.
Courtesy of the Unites States visa system's ongoing case of the sniffles, UFC Fight Night 70 stumbles into Hollywood, Fla., this Saturday night (June 27, 2015) with little, but its terrific main event is thankfully still intact.
In said main event, Lyoto Machida will look to rebound from his crushing loss to Luke Rockhold against former Olympic silver medalist Yoel Romero, who has knocked out four of his five Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) opponents.
In addition, hard-charging Argentinian brawler Santiago Ponzinibbio will take on Lorenz Larkin, who has looked like a monster since dropping to 170 pounds, while The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) winners Eddie Gordon and Antonio Carlos Jr. battle it out at Middleweight.
I'm as disappointed in this turn of events as you are, but you can still turn this into a profitable venture.
UFC Fight Night 70 Odds For The Under Card:
Alex Oliveira (-440) vs. Joe Merritt (+350)
Leandro Silva (-150) vs. Lewis Gonzalez (+130)
Steve Montgomery (-140) vs. Tony Sims (+120)
Danny Martinez (-135) vs. Sirwan Kakai (+115)
Thoughts: Even though we’ve only got four undercard "Prelims" fights, there’s one solid bet and one terrific available:
Sims and Kakai, respectively.
Montgomery has the name value from his ill-fated run on TUF 21 and a five-inch height advantage. The issue is that he really doesn’t know how to use it. If you watch his fight with Brock Jardine -- who is of comparable height to Sims -- "The Creepy Weasel" was repeatedly tagged by sloppy punches before stopping "The Machine" with a knee in the second. He doesn’t really have a jab, just the long punches and high kicks endemic to unpolished lanky guys. Sims is a far crisper puncher and should have the power to punish his porous defense even with the weight disadvantage.
As much as I like the odds on Sims, though, Kakai is the true bargain.
Martinez just isn’t very good -- he’s a sloppy wrestler with heavy hands and no boxing technique. His sole accomplishments in UFC were dropping Scott Jorgensen and grinding on the ever-inconsistent Chris Cariaso. In addition, he’s moving up in weight on top of that. Kakai is only 26 years old and is rapidly improving; in fact, he’s already a far better striker than Martinez and showed very solid takedown defense and scrambling in his most recent fight.
Go big on the Swede. You won’t regret it.
UFC Fight Night 70 Odds For The Main Card:
Lyoto Machida (-190) vs. Yoel Romero (+165)
Lorenz Larkin (-220) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (+180)
Antonio Carlos Jr. (-200) vs. Eddie Gordon (+170)
Thiago Santos (-190) vs. Steve Bosse (+165)
Hacran Dias (-185) vs. Levan Makashvili (+160)
Thoughts: Things are a little more bleak in the betting department here in main card territory. Lots of unproven or inconsistent fighters. If there’s anyone I’d consider safe, it’s "Shoeface" Carlos Jr. He had success as a soft Light Heavyweight and I expect him to do quite well at 185 pounds with his grappling pedigree and punching power. After Gordon’s putrid performance against Dempsey, I’m reasonably confident in the Brazilian’s chances.
UFC Fight Night 70 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Tony Sims: Bet $50 to make $60
- Single bet -- Sirwan Kakai: Bet $80 to make $92
- Single bet -- Antonio Carlos Jr.: Bet $40 to make $20