Once more, for ole times' sake ... literally.
Two of the greatest mixed martial arts (MMA) pioneers, Vitor Belfort and Dan Henderson, will lock horns one last time this Saturday evening (Oct. 7, 2015), headlining UFC Fight Night 77 from Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Elsewhere on the FOX Sports 1-televised card, Glover Teixeira will attempt to smash his way back to Light Heavyweight title contention against Pat Cummins, while red-hot Bantamweight prospect Thomas Almeida puts himself to the test against the power and wrestling of former MFC champ Anthony Birchak.
It's a fun, well-matched card, which means we're going to have to dig deep to find value. Luckily, that's what I'm here for.
Let's get started:
UFC Fight Night 77 Odds For The Undercard:
Gleison Tibau (-125) vs. Abel Trujillo (+105)
Johnny Case (-245) vs. Yan Cabral (+205)
Clay Guida (-165) vs. Thiago Tavares (+145)
Chas Skelly (-160) vs. Edimilson Souza (+140)
Gasan Umalatov (-125) vs. Viscardi Andrade (+105)
Pedro Munhoz (-175) vs. Jimmie Rivera (+155)
Matheus Nicolau (-175) vs. Bruno Rodrigues (+155)
Thoughts: The same thing that makes this such an interesting card on paper makes it crap for betting. That's because the fights, by and large, are both evenly matched and feature guys who can end it in an instant. In this limited field, Tibau, Munhoz and Rodrigues are your best options.
Tibau’s the lynchpin of this event’s gambling efforts. The big man seems very well-equipped to defuse Trujillo’s bulldozer offense. "Killa" is vulnerable to the takedown when he can’t get the early finish and seems to have some issues with his gas tank, for which an 11-month layoff probably won’t do any favors. It won’t be as acrobatic as the air show Khabib Nurmagomedov pulled off against Trujillo, but Tibau should get the win without excessive difficulty.
Munhoz’s year-long absence seems to have made people forget how much of a beast he is. He’s absolutely lethal on the mat and, while not exactly a technician on the feet, packs some power and mixes things up quite well. I just don’t think Rivera will have any luck keeping him at arms-length, so bet accordingly.
I wish I could give you some kind of detailed, technical reason for why I’m so high on "Korea," but all I’ve got is that I just really like the kid. Plus, he’s got a length advantage and figures to be the better striker. Don’t treat him as your primary breadwinner, but put a bit down on Rodrigues.
UFC Fight Night 77 Odds For The Main Card:
Vitor Belfort (-360) vs. Dan Henderson (+300)
Glover Teixeira (-440) vs. Patrick Cummins (+350)
Thomas Almeida (-440) vs. Anthony Birchak (+350)
Alex Oliveira (-200) vs. Piotr Hallmann (+170)
Rashid Magomedov (-160) vs. Gilbert Burns (+140)
Corey Anderson (-500) vs. Fabio Maldonado (+400)
Thoughts: Great main card, not a great source of money. The only one here I’d feel comfortable putting money on is Magomedov, and even then, I have some reservations.
The Dagestani is the better striker of the two by far and his drop to 155 pounds seems to have done a great deal to correct his takedown defense issues. Still, it’s hard to forget Tony Martin putting him on his back and nearly taking his arm off in his Octagon debut. Burns is one of the division’s best grapplers and can handle himself on the feet, so while Magomedov is still worth an investment, don’t go crazy.
Try putting him in with a safe bet like Case.
UFC Fight Night 77 Best Bets:
- Parlay -- Gleison Tibau and Pedro Munhoz: Bet $40 to make $73.20
- Single bet -- Bruno Rodrigues: Bet $30 to make $46.50
- Parlay -- Johnny Case and Rashid Magomedov: Bet $40 to make $55.60
From top-to-bottom, this is actually a great little card, which is full of fine match ups and quality prospects.
Hope to see you Saturday, Maniacs!
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC Fight Night 77 results on fight night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.