Two more for the shark tank.
This Saturday evening (Nov. 21, 2015) inside Arena Monterrey in Monterrey, Mexico, Kelvin Gastelum and Neil Magny will attempt to stake their claims in the murderous Welterweight division when they headline UFC Fight Night 78, which will also serve as The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Latin America 2" Finale.
In the co-main event, Ricardo Lamas will attempt to give Diego Sanchez a rude welcome to the Featherweight division, while undefeated Flyweight contender Henry Cejudo faces his stiffest test to date in Brazilian grappler extraordinaire Jussier "Formiga" da Silva.
It's live and -- save for one undercard bout on Fight Pass -- entirely free on FOX Sports 1. After last week's Holly Holm-inspired disaster (read more on that here), let's see what the bookies have in store for us this time around.
UFC Fight Night 78 Odds For The Undercard:
Erik Perez (-115) vs. Taylor Lapilus (-105)
Bartosz Fabinski (-190) vs. Hector Urbina (+165)
Scott Jorgensen (-145) vs. Alejandro Perez (+125)
Andre Fili (-190) vs. Gabriel Benitez (+165)
Vernon Ramos (-165) vs. Alvaro Herrera (+145)
Cezar Arzamendia (-190) vs. Polo Reyes (+165)
Michel Prazeres (-120) vs. Valmir Lazaro (EVEN)
Thoughts: This undercard has several tempting bets I just can’t bring myself to pull the trigger on. I picked both of the TUF underdogs (Herrera and Reyes), but not with anywhere near the confidence necessary to recommend putting money down. As I write this sentence, I’m still waffling on whether or not to put money on Jorgensen -- his recent streak is pretty bad, sure, but the worst guy on there was Manny Gamburyan, and I’m not sure Perez is better than the "Anvil."
Eh, better safe than sorry. Let’s just work with Fabinski and Fili.
Fabinski has something of a one-note offense, but it’s a pretty darn effective note. He goes out there to slam the hell out of opponents and his Judo and strength make him quite good at that. Urbina -- whom you’ll note has five knockout losses while Fabinski has eight knockout wins -- doesn’t seem to have the takedown defense necessary to keep the Pole from manhandling him.
Despite his losses, one of which I consider totally understandable considering it was to Max Hlloway, Fili has still got plenty of potential. He’s only 25, fighting out of a great camp in Team Alpha Male, and should be the better wrestler here by a considerable margin. Though Benitez should give him some trouble on the feet, Fili’s superior grappling ought to carry the day.
Parlaying him and Fabinski together nets +133 odds, so that’s my recommendation for the undercard.
UFC Fight Night 78 Odds For The Main Card:
Kelvin Gastelum (-300) vs. Neil Magny (+250)
Ricardo Lamas (-600) vs. Diego Sanchez (+450)
Henry Cejudo (-500) vs. Jussier da Silva (+400)
Enrique Marin (-185) vs. Erick Montaño (+160)
Horacio Gutierrez (-150) vs. Enrique Barzola (+130)
Leandro Silva (-140) vs. Efrain Escudero (+120)
Thoughts: The cynical among you may find the +450 odds on Sanchez tempting, considering that I’m fairly certain "Nightmare" could be hit by a bus on the way to the arena and still convince two judges to give him the win. Alas, I don’t think I could live with myself if I stooped that low.
As far as the rest of the main card, the lines are far too reasonable for my tastes. I don’t think "Formiga" is getting enough credit, but not to the extent that he’s a good investment.
Leave these guys alone.
UFC Fight Night 78 Best Bets:
- Parlay -- Bartosz Fabinski and Andre Fili: Bet $50 to make $66.50
It's a solid card overall, but whether it's worth skipping out on "Cotto vs. Canelo" is entirely up to you.
Either way, see you Saturday, Maniacs!
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC Fight Night 78 results on fight night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.