Two of the most devastating Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight finishers will lock horns for the second time this Saturday evening (Oct. 25, 2014) when 145-pound champion Jose Aldo takes on Team Alpha Male's Chad Mendes once more in the main event of UFC 179, which is set to hit Maracanazinho Gymnasium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Sixty pounds north, recent title challenger Glover Teixeira will face wrestling standout Phil Davis in a clash of elite 205-pound fighters, while the always-entertaining Fabio Maldonado fights the Netherlands' Hans Stringer, who is presently riding a seven-fight unbeaten streak.
It's an interesting pay-per-view (PPV) card to say the least. Let's see if we can get ourselves some dosh on the side:
UFC 179 Odds For The Under Card:
Neil Magny (-245) vs. William Macario (+205)
Yan Cabral (-650) vs. Naoyuki Kotani (+475)
Wilson Reis (-160) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+140)
Andre Fili (-120) vs. Felipe Arantes (EVEN)
Gilbert Burns (-350) vs. Christos Giagos (+290)
Fabricio Camoes (-125) vs. Tony Martin (+105)
Thoughts: Several fights I was tempted to recommend, unfortunately, have a few too many questions attached. Martin seems like a decent underdog bet, but his history of poor cardio makes him a liability.
Instead, Macario is your man.
Magny’s recent run has been very impressive, true, but it has not been flawless. Rodrigo "Monstro" had him in trouble early and Alex Garcia repeatedly hit takedowns on him despite a foot injury. Macario, in addition to being a lights-out puncher, has a very solid takedown game himself, one which he can set up to an extent that those two could not.
I believe he can overcome the reach disadvantage and end Magny’s streak. And at 2-to-1 odds, I’m willing to bet on that.
UFC 179 Odds For The Main Card:
Jose Aldo (-230) vs. Chad Mendes (+190)
Glover Teixeira (-335) vs. Phil Davis (+275)
Fabio Maldonado (-130) vs. Hans Stringer (+110)
Darren Elkins (-175) vs. Lucas Martins (+155)
Carlos Diego Ferreira (-210) vs. Beneil Dariush (+175)
Thoughts: Where I saw underdog value on the "Prelims" under card, I see value in a favorite on the main card. Despite being more than a 2-to-1 favorite, I believe the Featherweight champ is worth a look.
Mendes’ speed, power and wrestling prowess are undeniable. Based on what I’ve seen in his most recent fights, however, his style is not conducive to felling Aldo. "Money" has a tendency to back straight up, which has the unfortunate side-effect of leaving a leg out for enterprising low-kickers to savage. More generally, he fights reactively; Aldo, having stripped his game down to its bare essentials, needs to be pressed or he can cruise all night.
In other words, "Scarface" is not going to give Mendes the kind of counter opportunities he is used to.
In short, barring an early knockout that Mendes is admittedly capable of, I believe the stylistic match up favors the champion enough to warrant a bet. If the odds are too wide for you, throw in Cabral.
UFC 179 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- William Macario: Bet $40 to make $82
- Parlay -- Yan Cabral and Jose Aldo: Bet $60 to make $39.21
Two great -- divisionally-significant -- bouts and some fun match ups to round it out.
Sounds good to me ... see you Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC 179 results on fight night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.
Running Profit For 2014 Based On This Column: $166.90