Evening Maniacs,
With announcement that Dominick Cruz being injured...again.... and Urijah Faber stepping into either the Co-Main or Main event slot opposite Renan Barao at UFC 169 on February 1st, I thought I would write up a test of my idea for a break down of upcoming events using nothing but the raw data, attempting to leave my opinion and prediction of the fight out of it.
This is a fight to be excited about (ironically in my opinion), and doesn't really hurt the card that much.
Fighter Breakdown of Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber II
| FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | WIN % OF FIGHTS | FINISH % OF FIGHTS | (T)KO | SUB | UFC | STRIKING ACC: 36% |
| RENAN BARAO | 31 | 1 | 0 | 97% | 68.00% | 7 | 14 | UFC | STRIKING DEF: 67% |
| LAST FIVE FIGHTS | 5 | 0 | 0 | ORTHODOX | HEIGHT: 5'6" | REACH | 70 | UFC | TAKEDOWN ACC: 55% |
| UFC/WEC RECORD | 8 | 0 | 0 | LAST FIGHT: | 09/21/13 | AGE | 26 | UFC | TAKEDOWN DEF: 95% |
| FIGHTER RECORD OVERALL | Wins | Loss | Draw | NOTES | FIGHTER RECORD TOF | Wins | Loss | Draw | NOTES |
| JOAO DE SOUZA | 33 | 16 | 2 | (LOSS) | JOAO DE DOUZA | 0 | 0 | 0 | (LOSS) |
| MELK FREITAS | 0 | 2 | 0 | MELK FREITAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| ANISTAVIO DE FIGUEIREDO | 17 | 9 | 0 | ANISTAVIO DE FIGUEIREDO | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||
| DANDE DANDE | 0 | 1 | 0 | DANDE DANDE | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| GLEISON MENEZES | 3 | 9 | 0 | GLEISON MENEZES | 2 | 2 | 0 | ||
| KAIO DE FREITAS | 1 | 5 | 0 | KAIO DE FREITAS | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||
| RONY JASON | 13 | 4 | 0 | RONY JASON | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||
| JANAILSON LIMA | 32 | 14 | 0 | JANAILSON LIMA | 9 | 2 | 0 | ||
| CARLOS HEIDE | 13 | 8 | 0 | CARLOS HEIDE | 5 | 2 | 0 | ||
| ERINALDO RODRIGUES | 9 | 7 | 0 | ERINALDO RODRIGUES | 4 | 2 | 0 | ||
| DANILO NORONHA | 7 | 11 | 0 | DANILO NORONHA | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| CLAUDEMIR SOUZA | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1NC (NO CONTEST) | CLAUDEMIR SOUZA | 3 | 2 | 0 | (NO CONTEST) |
| WILLIAM VIANNA | 16 | 8 | 0 | 1NC | VILLIAM VIANNA | 8 | 4 | 0 | |
| RONALDO LIMA JR | 9 | 6 | 0 | RONALDO LIMA JR | 5 | 1 | 0 | ||
| JETRON AZEVEDO | 3 | 4 | 0 | JETRON AZEVEDO | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||
| JOSE DE MELO | 14 | 11 | 0 | 1NC | JOSE DE MELO | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1NC |
| WILLIAM PORFIRIO | 3 | 6 | 0 | WILLIAM PORFIRIO | 3 | 2 | 0 | ||
| ROGERIO SILVA DE SOUZA | 12 | 4 | 0 | ROGERIO SILVA DE SOUZA | 3 | 1 | 0 | ||
| ALEXANDRE PINHEIRO | 7 | 4 | 0 | ALEXANDRE PINHEIRO | 3 | 0 | 0 | ||
| ANDRE LUIS DE OLIVEIRA | 14 | 8 | 1 | ANDRE LUIS DE OLIVEIRA | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| JURANDIR SARDINHA | 15 | 7 | 1 | 1NC | JURANDIR SARDINHA | 7 | 1 | 0 | |
| PAULO DANTAS | 24 | 9 | 1 | PAULO DANTAS | 17 | 5 | 0 | ||
| MARCIO NUNES | 5 | 7 | 0 | MARCIO NUNES | 2 | 2 | 0 | ||
| JORGE ENCISO | 6 | 8 | 2 | JORGE ENCISO | 5 | 5 | 2 | ||
| SERGIO SILVA RODRIGUES | 11 | 5 | 0 | SERGIO SILVA RODRIGUES | 6 | 2 | 0 | ||
| ANTHONY LEONE | 13 | 6 | 0 | WEC DEBUT | ANTHONY LEONE | 8 | 0 | 0 | WEC DEBUT |
| CHRIS CARIASO | 15 | 5 | 0 | CHRIS CARIASO | 10 | 1 | 0 | ||
| COLE ESCOVEDO | 17 | 9 | 0 | UFC DEBUT | COLE ESCOVEDO | 17 | 6 | 0 | UFC DEBUT |
| BRAD PICKETT | 23 | 8 | 0 | BRAD PICKETT | 20 | 5 | 0 | ||
| SCOTT JORGENSEN | 14 | 8 | 0 | SCOTT JORGENSEN | 13 | 4 | 0 | ||
| URIJAH FABER | 30 | 7 | 0 | UFC INT BW TITLE WIN | URIJAH FABER | 26 | 5 | 0 | UFC INT BW TITLE WIN |
| MICHAEL MCDONALD | 16 | 3 | 0 | UFC INT BW TITLE DEF | MICHAEL MCDONALD | 15 | 1 | 0 | UFC INT BW TITLE DEF |
| EDDIE WINELAND | 20 | 9 | 1 | UFC INT BW TITLE DEF | EDDIE WINELAND | 20 | 8 | 1 | UFC INT BW TITLE DEF |
| TOTALS: | 422 | 235 | 8 | 66.00% | TOTALS: | 223 | 72 | 4 | 75.00% |
| AVERAGE: | 12.78 | 7.12 | 0.24 | AVERAGE: | 6.75 | 2.18 | 0.12 | ||
| UFC/WEC TOTALS: | 148 | 55 | 1 | 73.00% | UFC/WEC TOTALS: | 129 | 30 | 1 | 81.00% |
| UFC/WEC AVERAGE: | 18.5 | 6.87 | 0.12 | UFC/WEC AVERAGE: | 16.12 | 3.75 | 0.12 |
Barao's opponents have been both experienced and highly skilled based on the percentages seen here. With an average winning rate of 81% at the time fight and 16-4 record, Barao hasn't had a cake walk as the UFC's Interim and now Undisputed Bantamweight Champion.
He has finished a decent 68% of his wins with 14 submissions in 31 professional wins, including submissions over Brad Pickett and Michael McDonald in the UFC. Even with his Spinning Back Kick win over Eddie Wineland in his most recent defense, Barao's Significant Striking Accuracy is fairly low at 36% according to Fight Metric.
However, in that fight it was nearly double his average which suggests his striking could be improving at a rapid rate, it was an impressive 61%, landing 28 of 45 significant strikes, compared to just 29% in his first fight against Urijah Faber at UFC 149. Another impressive stat for Barao is his 95% Takedown Defense rate which is even higher than Jose Aldos.
| FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | WIN % OF FIGHTS | FINISH % OF FIGHTS | (T)KO | SUB | UFC | STRIKING ACC: 43% |
| URIJAH FABER | 30 | 6 | 0 | 83.00% | 80.00% | 7 | 17 | UFC | STRIKING DEF: 63% |
| LAST FIVE FIGHTS | 4 | 1 | 0 | ORTHODOX | HEIGHT: 5'6" | REACH | 69 | UFC | TAKEDOWN ACC: 36% |
| UFC RECORD | 6 | 2 | 0 | LAST FIGHT: | 09/21/13 | AGE | 34 | UFC | TAKEDOWN DEF: 59% |
| FIGHTER RECORD OVERALL | Wins | Loss | Draw | NOTES | FIGHTER RECORD TOF | Wins | Loss | Draw | NOTES |
| JAY VALENCIA | 2 | 4 | 0 | JAY VALENCIA | 1 | 2 | 0 | ||
| GEORGE ADKINS | 2 | 8 | 0 | GEORGE ADKINS | 1 | 2 | 0 | ||
| DAVID VELASQUEZ | 10 | 10 | 0 | DAVID VELASQUEZ | 9 | 7 | 0 | ||
| DEL HAWKINS | 22 | 16 | 0 | DEL HAWKINS | 17 | 8 | 0 | ||
| RAMI BOUKAI | 2 | 2 | 0 | KOTC DEBUT | RAMI BOUKAI | 2 | 1 | 0 | KOTC DEBUT |
| EBEN KANESHIRO | 14 | 10 | 0 | KOTC BW TITLE WIN | EBEN KANESHIRO | 4 | 1 | 0 | KOTC BW TITLE WIN |
| DAVID GRANADOS | 5 | 4 | 1 | DAVID GRANADOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| HIROYUKI ABE | 8 | 15 | 3 | 1NC KOTC BW TITLE DEF | HIROYUKI ABE | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1NC KOTC BW TITLE DEF |
| TYSON GRIFFIN | 16 | 7 | 0 | (LOSS) | TYSON GRIFFIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | (LOSS) |
| SHAWN BIAS | 14 | 9 | 0 | 1NC KOTC BW TITLE DEF | SHAWN BIAS | 3 | 1 | 0 | KOTC BW TITLE DEFENSE |
| CHARLES BENNETT | 26 | 28 | 2 | CHARLES BENNETT | 16 | 10 | 2 | ||
| IVAN MENJIVAR | 25 | 11 | 0 | IVAN MENJIVAR | 17 | 4 | 0 | ||
| COLE ESCOVEDO | 17 | 9 | 0 | WEC DEBUT FW TITLE WIN | COLE ESCOVEDO | 11 | 1 | 0 | WEC DEBUT FW TITLE WIN |
| CHARLIE VALENCIA | 12 | 7 | 0 | KOTC BW TITLE DEFENSE | CHARLIE VALENCIA | 7 | 0 | 0 | KOTC BW TITLE DEFENSE |
| NAOYA UEMATSU | 15 | 8 | 2 | NAOYA UEMATSU | 14 | 5 | 2 | ||
| ENOCH WILSON | 16 | 9 | 2 | ENOCH WILSON | 8 | 1 | 0 | ||
| BIBIANO FERNANDES | 15 | 3 | 0 | KOTC BW TITLE DEFENSE | BIBIANO FERNANDES | 1 | 0 | 0 | KOTC BW TITLE DEFENSE |
| JOE PEARSON | 43 | 19 | 1 | WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE | JOE PEARSON | 17 | 7 | 1 | WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE |
| DOMINICK CRUZ | 19 | 1 | 0 | WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE | DOMINICK CRUZ | 9 | 0 | 0 | WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE |
| CHANCE FARRAR | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1NC WEC FW TITLE DEF | CHANCE FARRAR | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1NC WEC FW TITLE DEF |
| JEFF CURRAN | 34 | 16 | 1 | WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE | JEFF CURRAN | 29 | 8 | 2 | WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE |
| JENS PULVER | 27 | 19 | 1 | WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE | JENS PULVER | 22 | 8 | 1 | WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE |
| MIKE BROWN | 26 | 9 | 0 | WEC FW TITLE LOSS | MIKE BROWN | 19 | 4 | 0 | WEC FW TITLE LOSS |
| RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO | 21 | 4 | 0 | RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO | 15 | 1 | 0 | ||
| JOSE ALDO | 23 | 1 | 0 | WEC FW TITLE FIGHT LOSS | JOSE ALDO | 16 | 1 | 0 | WEC FW TITLE FIGHT LOSS |
| TAKEYA MIZUGAKI | 19 | 7 | 2 | TAKEYA MIZUGAKI | 13 | 4 | 2 | ||
| EDDIE WINELAND | 20 | 9 | 1 | UFC DEBUT | EDDIE WINELAND | 18 | 6 | 1 | UFC DEBUT |
| DOMINICK CRUZ | 19 | 1 | 0 | UFC BW TITLE FIGHT LOSS | DOMINICK CRUZ | 17 | 1 | 0 | UFC BW TITLE FIGHT LOSS |
| BRIAN BOWLES | 10 | 3 | 0 | BRIAN BOWLES | 10 | 1 | 0 | ||
| RENAN BARAO | 31 | 1 | 0 | 1NC BW TITLE FIGHT LOSS | RENAN BARAO | 28 | 1 | 0 | 1NC BW TITLE FIGHT LOSS |
| IVAN MENJIVAR | 25 | 11 | 0 | IVAN MENJIVAR | 25 | 9 | 0 | ||
| SCOTT JORGENSEN | 14 | 8 | 0 | SCOTT JORGENSEN | 14 | 6 | 0 | ||
| IURI ALCANTARA | 28 | 5 | 0 | 1NC | IURI ALCANTARA | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1NC |
| MICHAEL MCDONALD | 16 | 3 | 0 | MICHAEL MCDONALD | 16 | 2 | 0 | ||
| TOTALS: | 604 | 280 | 16 | 67.00% | TOTALS: | 420 | 112 | 13 | 77.00% |
| AVERAGE: | 17.76 | 8.23 | 0.47 | AVERAGE: | 12.35 | 3.29 | 0.38 | ||
| UFC TOTALS: | 163 | 41 | 1 | 80.00% | UFC TOTALS: | 156 | 30 | 1 | 83.00% |
| UFC AVERAGE: | 20.375 | 5.125 | 0.125 | UFC AVERAGE: | 19.5 | 3.75 | 0.125 |
Faber has had quite a run of competition since his debut in 2003 and in particular since his entry into the UFC. Considering that he is 6-2 against opponents with an 83% win rate is excellent. His opponents have also been very experienced at 19-4. The numbers suggest that Faber's opponents have actually been "better" than those fighting Barao.
But that's why this is just the numbers and not the whole picture. At UFC 149 Barao handily defeated Faber by unanimous decision after 25 minutes.
It's worth noting that since Faber's loss to Barao in July 2012, his significant striking accuracy has been 61% (193 of 312)over 4 fights and an overall striking accuracy of 71% (334 of 470).
Barao's have been 34% (253 of 746) and 37% (286 of 781). Barao dominated the striking in the first fight. I'm curious to see what happens.
Well that's what I was able to find behind the records of these two elite MMA fighters. Post your predictions and discuss what all these numbers mean.
