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This Fanpost has been edited and promoted to the frontpage
Happy Friday Maniacs,
With the positive response to the Behind the Records fanpost I wrote the other day I decided to try my hand at this, looking at the stats behind the top 4 fights fighting on the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Fight Pass inaugural event.
MAIN EVENT: Tarec Saffiedine vs. Hyun Gyu Lim
| FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | WIN % OF FIGHTS | FINISH % OF FIGHTS | (T)KO | SUB | ||||
| TAREC SAFFIEDINE | 14 | 3 | 0 | 82% | 43% | 1 | 5 | ||||
| FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | NOTES | FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | NOTES | ||
| GUILLAUME JANVIER | 0 | 1 | 0 | GUILLAUME JANVIER | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| KAMIL UYGUN | 7 | 4 | 0 | (LOSS) | KAMIL YUGUN | 3 | 1 | 0 | (LOSS) | ||
| SEBASTIEN GRANDIN | 9 | 11 | 0 | SEBASTIEN GRANDIN | 3 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| RAYMOND JARMAN | 16 | 23 | 0 | 1NC | RAYMOND JARMAN | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 NC | ||
| RICH BONDOC | 1 | 1 | 0 | RICH BONDOC | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| SCOTT ROSE | 1 | 2 | 0 | SCOTT ROSE | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| MIKE ARELLANO | 3 | 10 | 0 | MIKE ARELANO | 2 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| SEICHI IKEMOTO | 21 | 19 | 5 | SEICHI IKEMOTO | 18 | 15 | 5 | ||||
| YOON DONG SIK | 7 | 7 | 0 | (LOSS) | YOON DONG SIK | 4 | 7 | 0 | (LOSS) | ||
| JAMES TERRY | 11 | 5 | 0 | STRIKEFORCE DEBUT | JAMES TERRY | 7 | 1 | 0 | STRIKEFORCE DEBUT | ||
| NATE MOORE | 8 | 3 | 0 | NATE MOORE | 7 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| BROCK LARSON | 37 | 7 | 0 | BROCK LARSON | 32 | 4 | 0 | ||||
| TYRON WOODLEY | 12 | 2 | 0 | (LOSS) | TYRON WOODLEY | 7 | 0 | 0 | (LOSS) | ||
| SCOTT SMITH | 18 | 10 | 0 | 1NC | SCOTT SMITH | 17 | 8 | 0 | 1NC | ||
| TYLER STINSON | 25 | 9 | 0 | TYLER STINSON | 23 | 7 | 0 | ||||
| ROGER BOWLING | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1NC | ROGER BOWLING | 11 | 2 | 0 | |||
| NATE MARQUARDT | 32 | 13 | 2 | SF WW TITLE WIN | NATE MARQUARDT | 32 | 10 | 2 | SF WW TITLE WIN | ||
| TOTALS: | 219 | 132 | 7 | 61.00% | TOTALS: | 171 | 64 | 7 | 71.00% | ||
| AVERAGE: | 12.88 | 7.76 | 0.41 | AVERAGE: | 10.05 | 3.76 | 0.41 | ||||
| STRIKEFORCE: TOTALS | 109 | 44 | 2 | 70.00% | STRIKEFORCE: TOTALS | 97 | 28 | 2 | 76.00% | ||
|
18.17 | 7.33 | 0.333 |
|
16.17 | 4.67 | 0.333 |
On the left you see Mr. Saffiedine's opponents total records, regardless of what it was at the time of their fight. On the right you see their records prior to their bout. Saffiedine has won 82% of his fights and finished 43% of those victories. The quality of his opposition outside of Strikeforce wasn't particularly high but that's not uncommon fighting on the regional circuit. His opponent's average record at the time of the bout during his time in Strikeforce was 16-5, which suggests the quality was fairly high. His record has a few sub-par opponents but it's not strange.
| FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | WIN % OF FIGHTS | FINISH % OF FIGHTS | (T)KO | SUB | ||
| HYUN GYU LIM | 12 | 3 | 1 | 75.00% | 92.00% | 9 | 2 | ||
| FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | NOTES | FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | NOTES |
| SEONG YEOL AHN | 1 | 2 | 0 | SEONG YEOL AHN | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| JICK YOUNG KIM | 1 | 0 | 1 | JICK YOUNG KIM | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| GREG SOTO | 9 | 3 | 0 | (LOSS) | GREG SOTO | 1 | 0 | 0 | (LOSS) |
| HIROSHI MASABUCHI | 2 | 4 | 0 | HIROSHI MASABUCHI | 1 | 2 | 0 | ||
| LUCIO LINHARES | 19 | 8 | 0 | LUCIO LINHARES | 7 | 2 | 0 | ||
| NOBORU ONISHI | 2 | 4 | 1 | NOBORU ONISHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| BRANDON MAGANA | 6 | 2 | 0 | BRANDON MAGANA | 5 | 0 | 0 | ||
| MAX FERNANDEZ | 4 | 0 | 0 | (LOSS) | MAX FERNANDEZ | 2 | 0 | 0 | (LOSS) |
| DMITRY SAMOILOV | 16 | 6 | 1 | (LOSS) | DMITRY SAMOILOV | 6 | 3 | 1 | (LOSS) |
| SLADE ADELBAI | 8 | 4 | 1 | SLADE ADELBAI | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| ROSS EBANEZ | 20 | 9 | 0 | 3NC | ROSS EBANEZ | 20 | 7 | 0 | 3NC |
| FERRID KHEDER | 22 | 11 | 0 | 1NC | FERRID KHEDER | 21 | 8 | 0 | 1NC |
| TAKAHIRO KAWANAKA | 6 | 3 | 0 | TAKAHIRO KAWANAKA | 3 | 0 | 0 | ||
| RYAN BIGLER | 9 | 3 | 0 | RYAN BIGLER | 9 | 2 | 0 | ||
| MARCELO GUIMARAES | 8 | 1 | 1 | UFC DEBUT | MARCELO GUIMARAES | 8 | 0 | 1 | UFC DEBUT |
| PASCAL KRAUSS | 11 | 2 | 0 | PASCAL KRAUSS | 11 | 1 | 0 | ||
| TOTALS: | 144 | 62 | 5 | 68.00% | TOTALS: | 103 | 29 | 4 | 76.00% |
| AVERAGE: | 9 | 3.875 | 0.3125 | AVERAGE: | 6.4375 | 1.8125 | 0.25 | ||
| UFC TOTALS: | 19 | 3 | 1 | 83.00% | UFC TOTALS: | 19 | 1 | 1 | 90.00% |
| UFC AVERAGE: | 9.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | UFC AVERAGE: | 9.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Here we see that Mr. Lim wins 75% of his fights, lower that Saffiedine, but finishing 92% of his victories, with only one win going to a decision, compared to only 43% of Saffiedine. The numbers say that Lim's opponents may have been a higher quality because their percentage of wins to losses is better, however they are usually less experienced than those who fought Saffiedine.
What do you guys make of the main event? Do you agree with the betting odds with Saffiedine being a -230 favorite over Lim at a +190 underdog?
CO-MAIN EVENT: Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Sean Soriano
| FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | WIN % OF FIGHTS | FINISH % OF FIGHTS | (T)KO | SUB | ||
| TATSUYA KAWAJIRI | 32 | 7 | 2 | 78.00% | 66.00% | 12 | 9 | ||
| FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | NOTES | FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | NOTES |
| TAKUMI NAKAYAMA | 18 | 14 | 6 | 1NC (LOSS) | TAKUMI NAKAYAMA | 0 | 0 | 0 | (LOSS) |
| YOHEI SUZUKI | 8 | 8 | 1 | (DRAW) | YOHEI SUZUKI | 3 | 2 | 0 | (DRAW) |
| YOHEI SUZUKI | 8 | 8 | 1 | YOHEI SUZUKI | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| KAZUMICHI TAKADA | 3 | 4 | 1 | KAZUMICHI TAKADA | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| MASAYA TAKITA | 10 | 15 | 4 | 1NC | MASAYA TAKITA | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| TAKESHI YAMAZAKI | 15 | 12 | 3 | TAKESHI YAMAZAKI | 3 | 0 | 2 | ||
| DAISUKE SUGIE | 10 | 8 | 1 | DAISUKE SUGIE | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| TSUTOMU SHIIKI | 3 | 7 | 2 | TSUTOMU SHIIKI | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| KEN OMATSU | 3 | 7 | 1 | KEN OMATSU | 2 | 2 | 0 | ||
| VITOR RIBEIRO | 20 | 5 | 0 | (LOSS) | VITOR RIBEIRO | 5 | 0 | 0 | (LOSS) |
| TAKUMI NAKAYAMA | 18 | 14 | 6 | 1NC | TAKUMI NAKAYAMA | 9 | 3 | 2 | |
| YVES EDWARDS | 42 | 21 | 1 | YVES EDWARDS | 23 | 7 | 1 | ||
| RYAN BOW | 17 | 9 | 2 | RYAN BOW | 9 | 4 | 0 | ||
| CAOL UNO | 29 | 16 | 5 | (DRAW) | CAOL UNO | 15 | 6 | 3 | (DRAW) |
| MINDAUGAS LAURINAITIS | 0 | 3 | 0 | MINDAUGAS LAURINAITIS | 0 | 2 | 0 | ||
| VITOR RIBEIRO | 20 | 5 | 0 | VITOR RIBEIRO | 10 | 0 | 0 | ||
| JANI LAX | 10 | 8 | 0 | JANI LAX | 7 | 3 | 0 | ||
| IN SEOK KIM | 3 | 6 | 0 | PRIDE DEBUT | IN SEOK KIM | 2 | 1 | 0 | PRIDE DEBUT |
| LUIZ FIRMINO | 17 | 6 | 0 | LUIZ FIRMINO | 10 | 2 | 0 | ||
| TAKANORI GOMI | 34 | 9 | 0 | 1NC (LOSS) | TAKANORI GOMI | 21 | 2 | 0 | (LOSS) |
| JOACHIM HANSEN | 23 | 11 | 1 | JOACHIM HANSEN | 13 | 3 | 1 | ||
| CHARLES BENNETT | 26 | 27 | 2 | CHARLES BENNETT | 17 | 13 | 2 | ||
| CHRIS BRENNAN | 20 | 13 | 1 | CHRIS BRENNAN | 18 | 10 | 1 | ||
| PER EKLUND | 14 | 5 | 1 | PER EKLUND | 9 | 1 | 1 | ||
| GILBERT MELENDEZ | 22 | 3 | 0 | (LOSS) | GILBERT MELENDEZ | 11 | 0 | 0 | (LOSS) |
| LUIZ AZEREDO | 15 | 10 | 0 | LUIZ AZEREDO | 11 | 6 | 0 | ||
| KULTAR GILL | 12 | 8 | 0 | DREAM DEBUT | KULTAR GILL | 10 | 6 | 0 | DREAM DEBUT |
| LUIZ FIRMINO | 17 | 6 | 0 | LUIZ FIRMINO | 12 | 3 | 0 | ||
| EDDIE ALVAREZ | 25 | 3 | 0 | (LOSS) | EDDIE ALVAREZ | 14 | 1 | 0 | (LOSS) |
| ROSS EBANEZ | 20 | 9 | 3 | ROSS EBANEZ | 19 | 6 | 3 | ||
| GESIAS CAVALCANTE | 18 | 7 | 1 | 2NC | GESIAS CAVALCANTE | 14 | 2 | 1 | 1NC |
| MELCHOR MANIBUSAN | 2 | 4 | 0 | MELCHOR MANIBUSAN | 2 | 3 | 0 | ||
| KAZUNORI YOKOTA | 16 | 5 | 3 | KAZUNORI YOKOTA | 12 | 2 | 3 | ||
| SHINYA AOKI | 35 | 6 | 0 | 1NC (LOSS) | SHINYA AOKI | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1NC (LOSS) |
| JOSH THOMSON | 20 | 5 | 0 | 1NC | JOSH THOMSON | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1NC |
| GILBERT MELENDEZ | 22 | 3 | 0 | (LOSS) SF TITLE FIGHT | GILBERT MELENDEZ | 18 | 2 | 0 | (LOSS) SF TITLE FIGHT |
| DREW FICKETT | 42 | 20 | 0 | DREW FICKETT | 41 | 14 | 0 | ||
| JOACHIM HANSEN | 23 | 11 | 1 | JOACHIM HANSEN | 22 | 10 | 1 | ||
| KAZUYUKI MIYATA | 13 | 9 | 0 | KAZUYUKI MIYATA | 11 | 8 | 0 | ||
| DONALD SANCHEZ | 29 | 13 | 0 | ONE FC DEBUT | DONALD SANCHEZ | 25 | 12 | 0 | ONE FC DEBUT |
| MICHIHIRO OMIGAWA | 13 | 14 | 1 | MICHIHIRO OMIGAWA | 13 | 12 | 1 | ||
| TOTALS: | 715 | 377 | 48 | 63.00% | TOTALS: | 464 | 165 | 26 | 71.00% |
| AVERAGE: | 17.43 | 9.19 | 1.17 | AVERAGE: | 11.31 | 4.02 | 0.63 |
After 41 career fights, Mr. Kawajiri is making his UFC debut. He hasn't faced the highest quality of opposition and has had mixed results when facing higher level fighters including being 0-2 with Gilbert Melendez. What you should take away from this is that he has a lot of fights and many of his opponents had a great deal of experience.
| FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | WIN % OF FIGHTS | FINISH % OF FIGHTS | (T)KO | SUB | ||
| SEAN SORIANO | 8 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | 75.00% | 3 | 3 | ||
| FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | NOTES | FIGHTER | Wins | Loss | Draw | NOTES |
| ERICK HERRERA | 0 | 1 | 0 | ERICK HERRERA | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| MIKE EROSA | 5 | 3 | 0 | MIKE EROSA | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| DENIS HERNANDEZ | 3 | 5 | 0 | DENIS HERNANDEZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| LIONEL YOUNG | 6 | 13 | 0 | LIONEL YOUNG | 6 | 8 | 0 | ||
| LEE METCALF | 7 | 6 | 0 | LEE METCALF | 6 | 5 | 0 | ||
| MATTHEW PERRY | 4 | 2 | 0 | MATTHEW PERRY | 3 | 1 | 0 | ||
| VICTOR DELGADO | 6 | 2 | 0 | VICTOR DELGADO | 6 | 0 | 0 | ||
| ELVIN LEON BRITO | 6 | 2 | 0 | ELVIN LEON BRITO | 6 | 1 | 0 | ||
| TOTALS: | 37 | 34 | 0 | 52.00% | TOTALS: | 27 | 15 | 0 | 64.00% |
| AVERAGE: | 4.62 | 4.25 | 0 | AVERAGE: | 3.37 | 1.87 | 0 |
First thing that sticks out is that the quality of opposition is very low for Mr. Soriano. He is only 8 fights into his career and has finished a respectable 75% of them. His last few opponents were an increase in quality however none of them are the level of Kawajiri. Who knows if Soriano will step up tomorrow. Kawajiri has really only lost to champions and top contenders in recent years.
Right now the odds are a closer than expected with Kawajiri being a -210 to a +170 for Soriano.
Hopefully this info will help those make their decisions in the upcoming picks. Good luck!.
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