Large and in charge.
Target Center in Minneapolis, Minn., will be the site of a serious Monster Mash this Friday (Oct. 5, 2012) when Heavyweight bruisers Travis Browne and Antonio Silva lock horns in the UFC on FX 5 main event.
In addition, Jay Hieron will make his return to the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) opposite knockout artist Jake Ellenberger, while and Top Five Flyweight fighters John Dodson and Jussier da Silva will decide the next challenger for Demetrious Johnson's 125-pound crown.
It's set to be a crazy night of fights, and one with profit hiding amidst the chaos.
Follow me for a closer look at the odds behind UFC on FX 5: "Browne vs. Bigfoot:"
UFC On FX 5 Odds For The Under Card:
Thiago Tavares (-265) vs. Dennis Hallman (+205)
Jeremy Stephens (-220) vs. Yves Edwards (+170)
Michael Johnson (-140) vs. Danny Castillo (+110)
Jacob Volkmann (-200) vs. Shane Roller (+160)
Diego Nunes (-200) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+160)
Marcus LeVesseur (-135) vs. Carlo Prater (+105)
Mike Pierce (-200) vs. Aaron Simpson (+160)
Darren Uyenoyama (-370) vs. Phil Harris (+280)
Thoughts: I’m not seeing much in the way of profitable underdogs (aside from maybe a handful on Simpson if he gets closer to +200), but there are a couple guys who should be bigger favorites than they are: Johnson and Volkmann.
Honestly, I don’t see how Castillo wins his fight. He might possibly be a slightly superior wrestler, but he’s more or less outmatched on the feet and doesn’t have the high-speed shot he’d need to bring down Johnson at range. He’s not a one-punch knockout threat or a submission machine, either, so there’s not much chance of him ending it in one go.
Go heavy on the The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) guy for this one.
I like Roller, I’m rooting for Roller, but I’m realistic about his chances against "Christmas." Roller’s wrestling just hasn’t translated well to mixed martial arts (MMA) and, for all his power, his stand up comprises entirely a sloppy one-two. Wrestling specialists like Castillo and Antonio McKee were outmatched by Volkmann, while Roller was soundly defeated by T.J. Grant, who I consider lesser than Volkmann in the wrestling department.
Use Volkmann to beef up your parlays ... he’s winning this one.
UFC On FX 5 Odds For The Main Card:
Thoughts: Surprisingly, there are some serious division implications at stake on the main card. Let’s see how it looks in the gambling department.
As a Japanese MMA fanatic, a Shooto champion taking a UFC belt would give my obsession some legitimacy it’s lacked for several years, but this is about as bad a match up for "Formiga" as you’re likely to find. Yes, he’s got the best ground game in the entire division, but he’s got to get Dodson down for that to mean anything, and he doesn’t have anywhere near the wrestling to do so. Dodson didn’t look great against Tim Elliott, but I’m pretty sure his broken hand had a lot to do with that; he’s still got crushing power and the speed to bring it to bear.
Use Dodson as another parlay stuffer.
I’m not really sure why Josh Neer vs. Justin Edwards is on the main card -- Neer just got flatlined for the first time in five years and Edwards is 1-2 in his last three. Neither man is consistent enough to make it worth betting on, but it should be entertaining, at least.
Just leave it be and enjoy it.
While I do think Ellenberger’s crushing power is going to bring him victory in the co-main event, the fact remains that his cardio is mediocre at best while Hieron can go five hard rounds. Further, Hieron is the only man so far to put up any sort of meaningful resistance to Ben Askren’s wrestling, making Ellenberger laying on him unlikely. It’s iffy whether Hieron can survive long enough to bring his endurance to bear, but if he gets out of the first, he’s got a great chance at outlasting Jake for a decision.
Don’t put much stock in it, but $20 or so on Hieron wouldn’t be a bad idea.
If "Bigfoot" can bring the fight to the ground, he should be able to finish Browne with no trouble. I just don’t think he will -- you wouldn’t expect someone with a jaw that big to have such an iffy chin, but there you go. He’s a technically superior striker to Browne, but "Hapa" is the bigger hitter of the two and, as a Polynesian, him getting knocked out is unlikely. The only way I’d recommend betting on this fight is if Bigfoot gets above +200 and you bank on him dragging Browne into the later rounds and finishing him there.
UFC On FX 5 Best Bets:
- Single Bet: Michael Johnson -- Bet $70 to make $50
- Parlay: Jacob Volkmann and John Dodson -- Bet $40 to make $46.80
- Single Bet: Jay Hieron-$20 to make $46
Free fights on a Friday night -- nothing better to shake off the drudgery of your weekly grind.
See you then, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC on FX 5: "Browne vs. Bigfoot" results this Friday night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.