This Saturday night (Dec. 10, 2011), reigning Ultimate Fighting Championship Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones will defend his belt against Shotokan Karate specialist Lyoto Machida as UFC 140 invades the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Canada.
The fight will be Jones' second title defense. It will also be his fourth fight in the 2011.
Originally, "Bones" was supposed to square off against former training partner and current nemesis Rashad Evans. However, after a hand injury sidelined "Suga," keeping him off the UFC 140 fight card, Machida was more than willing to step in and take another stab at getting his 205-pound belt back.
Mixed martial arts (MMA) fights don't happen on paper -- they happen in the cage. With that said, if you're looking to make any wagers on this massive headlining bout, it's best to go in knowing exactly what you're working with.
Let's get it on!
Jones and Machida have both fought the following common opponents:
-- "Rampage" Quinton Jackson
-- "Shogun" Mauricio Rua
-- Stephan Bonnar
Against these shared competitors, Machida holds a record of 2-2. Jones is a perfect 3-0.
The math wizards over at CompuStrike took the time to analyze nine of Jones' bouts, as well as 11 of Machida's. And they were decent enough to share their findings with us, which we are now passing on to you to digest.
Don't say we never gave you anything.
Striking is a big part of both fighters' arsenals. Let's examine who the stats reveal should hold the bigger overall striking advantage:
Total Strikes:
Jones -- 47 of 86
Machida -- 51 of 82
Percentage:Jones -- 55%
Machida -- 62%Total Power Strikes Landed:
Jones -- 31
Machida -- 34Total Non-Power Strikes Landed:
Jones -- 16
Machida -- 17
I don't know about you, but those numbers surprise me. It's certainly not a runaway, but I don't think a lot of people would assume Machida would have the edge in this category.
How about "arm strikes," isolated from the entire picture? Here's what it looks like:
Total Arm Strikes Landed:
Jones -- 10 of 31
Machida -- 14 of 31Percentage of Arm Strikes Landed:
Jones -- 32%
Machida -- 45%Power Strikes Landed:
Jones -- 7
Machida -- 9Non-Power Strikes Landed
Jones -- 3
Machida -- 5
The numbers reveal that "The Dragon" has been a bit more accurate in his fights than has the champion. We've seen what Machida can do with his kicks. Just ask Randy Couture.
Jones is known using vicious knees. Just ask pretty much everyone he's ever fought.
But, which of the two have been more successful with their arsenal of leg strikes? Let's dig in:
Total Leg Strikes Landed:
Jones -- 17 of 26
Machida -- 18 of 25
Percentage of Leg Strikes Landed:Jones -- 65%
Machida -- 72%
Power Leg Strikes Landed:Jones -- 9
Machida -- 11
Non-Power Leg Strikes Landed:Jones -- 8
Machida -- 7
Again, Machida is in the lead almost entirely across the board.
Finally, unless this fight ends quickly, we will probably see some element of the ground game of each fighter. In this scenario, who comes out on top?
Ground Strikes Landed:
Jones -- 20 of 29
Machida -- 19 of 26
Percentage:Jones -- 69%
Machida -- 73%
Power Ground Strikes Landed:Jones -- 15
Machida -- 14Non-Power Ground Strikes Landed:
Jones -- 5
Machida -- 5Takedowns:
Jones -- 24 of 30 for 80%
Machida -- 13 of 15 for 87%
Submission Attempts:Jones -- 5
Machida -- 8
Dominant Positions:Jones -- 16
Machida -- 26
As you can see, Machida holds the statistical advantage in every major category.
Ultimately, the numbers fly out the window when the cage door closes and the actual combat begins. However, it does help to look at the fighters' tendencies and past history in regard to making decisions about the future.
Are you swayed at all? Do Machida's mathematical advantages make a difference to you or will he be just become another notch on Jones' belt?
Comments, please.
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