At UFC 140 on Sat., Dec. 10, 2011, an important bout for Ultimate Fighting Championship's (UFC) heavyweight divisional big picture will take place when the promotion's former heavyweight champion Frank Mir takes on its former interim champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in a highly anticipated rematch.
The last time these two exchanged leather was at UFC 92 on Dec. 27, 2008, in "Sin City." The result? Mir finished "Minotauro" via technical knockout -- the first time ever that the resilient Brazilian was ever finished early via strikes in his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) career -- in the second round after working him over badly to that point in the respective fight.
Right after the fight, Nogueira made it known he was suffering from a staph infection and wasn't at his best. Mir argued that it didn't matter and has promised to beat him again, without or without ailment.
After the jump, we'll take a look at which of these two highly skilled heavyweights will hold the statistical edge when they enter into the Octagon this weekend in Toronto to do battle.
Check it out:
Mir and Nogueira have both fought the following common opponents:
Mir and Nogueira were both victorious against these shared opponents. Both notched submission victories over Sylvia. Mir knocked out "Cro Cop" in the third round when the two squared off at UFC 119 on Sept. 25, 2010, while Nogueira was able to beat the Croatian sensation with a second round armbar when they collided under the Pride FC banner in 2003.
They also technically share each other as common opponents. Clearly, Mir got the better of that exchange.
The mild mannered geniuses over at CompuStrike went to the trouble of analyzing nine of Mir's bouts, as well as six of Nogueira's. After watching and researching, they came up with a list of averages relating to each fighter's bouts. And they were kind enough to share their findings with MMAmania.com.
It's a given that both Mir and Nogueira generally prefer to get the fight to the canvas if they're able to get their way. That said, all mixed martial arts (MMA) start standing. Who has the advantage on the feet between these two?
Total Strikes:
Mir -- 21 of 44
Nogueira -- 44 of 98Percentage:
Mir -- 48%
Nogueira -- 45%Total Power Strikes Landed:
Mir -- 12
Nogueira -- 28Total Non-Power Strikes Landed:
Mir -- 9
Nogueira -- 16
According to those numbers, "Big Nog" would look to have a decent advantage in this area.
Let's break it down even further.
The overall striking picture is comprised of punches, elbows, kicks and knees. We'll examine which fighter has had more success, during their career, with "arm strikes:"
Total Arm Strikes Landed:
Mir -- 10 of 27
Nogueira -- 27 of 71Percentage of Arm Strikes Landed:
Mir -- 37%
Nogueira -- 38%
Power Strikes Landed:Mir -- 5
Nogueira -- 16
Non-Power Strikes LandedMir -- 5
Nogueira -- 11
Surprised? It would appear you shouldn't be. If this fight turns into a technical stand up competition, the numbers look to favor Nogueira.
"Arm strikes" aren't everything. In a fight where both athletes may be looking to shoot, the kicks and knees become even more important. So who do the numbers favor in this piece of the puzzle?
Let's dig deeper:
Total Leg Strikes Landed:
Mir -- 6 of 8
Nogueira -- 4 of 6
Percentage of Leg Strikes Landed:Mir -- 75%
Nogueira -- 67%
Power Leg Strikes Landed:Mir -- 4
Nogueira -- 2
Non-Power Leg Strikes Landed:Mir -- 2
Nogueira -- 2
Very close. As the numbers show, neither fighter looks to throw an overwhelming amount of kicks or knees. Saturday's fight will likely be no different.
Both men are Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts and are very dangerous on the ground. Mir has eight submission wins over the course of his 10-year career, while "Big Nog" has submitted 20 opponents in his 12-plus years.
You'd think Nogueira would hold the advantage, however slim it is, if this fight hits the canvas. Let's see if the numbers back that up:
Ground Strikes Landed:
Mir -- 5 of 9
Nogueira -- 13 of 21
Percentage:Mir -- 56%
Nogueira -- 62%
Power Ground Strikes Landed:Mir -- 3
Nogueira -- 10
Non-Power Ground Strikes Landed:Mir -- 2
Nogueira -- 3
Takedowns:Mir -- 12 of 15 for 80%
Nogueira -- 5 of 17 for 29%
Submission Attempts:Mir -- 5
Nogueira -- 4
Dominant Positions:Mir -- 6
Nogueira -- 6
The most intriguing portion of all of that would have to be the takedowns. Mir is clearly more proficient in getting his opponents to the mat. The question is: Will he even want to take Nogueira down? It will be interesting to see.
Are the numbers what you expected? Do you think any differently about this fight than you did previously?
Sound off!
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