Desert Dog here and back with some quick tips and smart bets for UFC Fight Night 13 tomorrow night (April 2) at the Broomfield Event Center in Broomfield, Colo.
The sportsbooks were slow this time around, releasing their numbers a bit late. However, it has no impact on getting some action before the showtime — there are some juicy betting opportunities in this unbelievably packed fight card.
Not to gloat, but I will be in Colorado to enjoy this one live, which means I'm heading out in eight hours.
Therefore, I'm going with a reduced analysis this time around and just cover the fights on which I'm betting. This truncated format will allow me to run through how I come up with my own probabilities for fights to decide if there is value in each bet.
Besides, I doubt most of you want to read about 12 different match ups!
It's definitely tough to pick the strongest bet on this card. There are obviously some lopsided match ups, but of course the odds on those are -600 to -800, which is not what I'm looking for.
I've picked three fights to bet on below, but remember that there are numerous betting options from which to choose. Just do your research, shop the odds (BetUS.com or Bodog.com are nice places to start) and, as always, wager only with what you are willing to lose.
Let's get to it:
Desert Dog's smart bets for Ultimate Fight Night 13:
(Note: + = Underdog; - = Favorite)
Alves (+150) bet $100 to win $150
Edgar (-165) bet $100 to win $60.61
Thomas (-180) bet $100 to win $55.56
NOTE: MMAmania.com recommends BetUS.com to place wagers (FREE $75 play with a deposit of $50 or more if you join today — you actually make money!). However, Bodog.com is also a good place to bet and compare odds.
Let's now move on to a more detailed breakdown of the fights for those bettors who require a little more reassurance.
Karo Parisyan (-180) vs. Thiago Alves (+150)
Decision: 50 percent chance of happening, Alves wins this outcome 51 percent of the time.
When it comes to action and control there's a reason Karo has won so many fights, even if it is usually by decision. His throws, takedowns and ground work keep his fights very interesting and entertaining. This time out, however, he just seems to be effusing the same confidence (unheard of for Karo). I think Thiago will actually push the pace in this fight and if he can't put Karo out, his wicked leg kicks and fast hands will score him the win.
Technical knockout: 35 percent chance of happening, Alves wins this outcome 90 percent of the time.
Karo's record says it all ... he's NEVER had a technical knockout and it's real unlikely he's going to get his first one against Alves. This is, however, the way Thiago finishes the majority of his fights.
Submission: 15 percent chance of happening, Parisyan wins this outcome 80 percent of the time.
Karo is an excellent grappler and has very strong submissions, but he just hasn't been able to finish with them. Thiago's strength will likely keep him safe in this fight.
Alves should win this fight about 60 percent of the time, so odds of -145 or better would have value.
Prediction: Alves via technical knockout (CLICK TO BET NOW)
Frankie Edgar (-165) vs. Gray Maynard (+145)
Decision: 65 percent chance of happening, Edgar wins this outcome 65 percent of the time.
There's a pretty good chance this ones going the distance and it will be a battle between Edgar's superior standup and Gray's wrestling. Edgar takedown defense and amazing scrambling gives him a slight edge over the distance.
Technical knockout: 20 percent chance of happening, Edgar wins this outcome 65 percent of the time.
Edgar's advantage here is in technique and speed, but Maynard does have better power. After rewatching Edgar vs. Fisher, as well as the fight against Mark Bocek, it's clear that "The Answer" is adept on his feet.
Submission: 15 percent chance of happening, Edgar wins this outcome 50 percent of the time.
Neither fighter is really strong in the submission department, but both have excellent defenses. When this one is on the ground you're more likely to see ground and pound than a triangle.
Edgar should win this fight about 62.75 percent of the time, so odds of -165 or better would have value.
Prediction: Edgar via decision (CLICK TO BET NOW)
Din Thomas (-180) vs. Josh Neer (+150)
Decision: 40 percent chance of happening, Thomas wins this outcome 70 percent of the time.
Din has better hands, kicks, footwork, takedown defense, and jiu-jitsu. Neer will have the strength advantage, but in the end Din will be working for the finish both on the feet and on the ground and it will show on the scorecards at the end of each round.
Technical knockout: 20 percent chance of happening, Thomas wins this outcome 55 percent of the time.
Din definitely has better hands and much better kicks, but Neer's power, strong chin, and brawler attitude make him dangerous on the feet.
Submission: 40 percent chance of happening, Thomas wins this outcome 80 percent of the time.
Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt against a brawler — not hard to come up with a number for this one.
Thomas should win this fight about 71 percent of the time, so odds of -245 or better would have value.
Prediction: Thomas via submission (CLICK TO BET NOW)
That about does it for this installment of betting tips and advice. Remember to bet smart.
Betting is not for everyone. But if you want to take a stab at it head over to BetUs.com (Sign up today and get a FREE $75 play) or to compare competitive MMA lines visit Bodog.com.
Enjoy the fights and good luck. Feel free to leave UFC Fight Night 13 predictions and other thoughts in the comments section below.
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