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UFC The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 6 Finale betting odds: Free tips and advice from Desert Dog

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Desert Dog here with tips and "Smart Bets" for The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 6 Finale this Saturday, December 8, at The Palms in Las Vegas, Nevada.

It's a fight card that has been literally months in the making. And in about 24 hours we'll get to see all the action and drama unfold for FREE on SpikeTV at 9 p.m. ET. This special event has some solid betting opportunities and we want you to take advantage of them before the lines narrow.

Let's get to it.

Here are the "Smart Bets" for the TUF 6 Finale:


Main card picks:

(Note: + = Underdog, - = Favorite)Roger Huerta -115 (Bet $100 to win $86.96)
or -160 over 2.5 rounds (Bet $100 to win $62.50)
Jared Rollins -105 (Bet $100 to win $95.24)
George Sotiropoulos -500 (No action)
Ben Saunders -260 (Bet $100 win $62.50)

Preliminary card picks:

Richie Hightower -145 1/2 Bet (Bet $50 to win $34.48)
Roman Mitichyan -500 (No action)
Matt Arroyo -310 1/2 Bet (Bet $50 to win $16.13)
Jonathan Goulet -500 (No action)

NOTE: MMAmania.com recommends BetUS.com to place wagers (FREE $75 play with a deposit of $50 or more ... you actually make money). However, Bodog.com is also a good place to bet and compare odds.)


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As always — if you are going to bet — only play with what you are willing to lose.

There aren't any standout values on this card except perhaps Tommy Speer (+120). Another relatively safe bet is to forgo picking a winner in the main event between Roger Huerta and Clay Guida and take the over/under to go past 2.5 rounds.

Now onto a more detailed breakdown of the fights for those bettors who require a little more reassurance.

Main card bouts:

Roger Huerta (-115) vs. Clay Guida (-115)
The question is can Guida win a decision over the Latino poster boy? Yes, but I don't think he will.

"El Matador" may not have fought the names "The Carpenter" has, but he is undefeated in the UFC (5-0) and he finished three of those via technical knockout. Huerta's biggest weakness in this fight is his submission game, by that I mean he's very unlikely to finish this one with anything other than his fists. His wrestling and ground defense should allow him to keep this fight where he wants it -- on the feet -- at least enough to maintain control. He has more than shown this ability in his last three fights. Huerta's takedown defense did seem exposed while fighting Evans, but he adjusted and poured on the aggression to win the bout in convincing fashion.

Guida shows tremendous pace and technical skill, but he has not demonstrated the ability to finish high level fighters. Guida's last three fights went to decisions and although the fights were exciting and fun to watch, he never put them away. Clay has a solid submission game but it's not good enough to finish Huerta -- his standup is also good but it's mostly defense and counter striking. Clay's biggest strength has been his wrestling and ability to avoid being controlled on the ground. That won't be enough to win against a skilled wrestler with good submission defense and excellent scrambling. Guida will push for ground control and leave all of his relentless energy inside the Octagon.

The stage is set for a great three-round battle for control.

Current odds have this one as a "Pick 'em" fight, which is right on the money. I placed a bet when Huerta's odds hit +125, but at this price it's up to you. Overall the odds are very high that this fight will go the distance (-160 over 2.5 rounds), which might be your best value if you don't want to pick a winner.

Prediction: Huerta via decision

Mac Danzig (-150) vs. Tommy Speer (+120)
TUF 6 coach Matt Hughes probably hit the nail on the head on this match up: "skill vs power."

The one advantage I see building on the side of Speer is continuing to train with Hughes. I doubt he's a submission specialist by now but this amount of time in Matt's camp should have provided him with some solid defense against Danzig's submission skills. Danzig's best shot at a win is a submission, while farmboy's best shot is by technical knockout.

If this goes to decision it could come down to the final round, Danzig is hoping Tommy will tire and make mistakes, but dealing with a fighter this much stronger for the first two rounds could leave him unable to take advantage of any errors. I think Speer may be the young new Matt Hughes protege and pull out this win. It may sound odd but having a motivated Hughes training Tommy is the edge in this fight.

Prediction: Speer via decision

Jared Rollins (-105) vs. John "War Machine" Koppenhaver (-125)
Another close fight.

Jared Rollins holds a slight strength advantage but he may be worried that beating the crap out of the "War Machine" will just lead to another upper decker. Damn these kids got bored fast. Rollins has great Brazilian jiu-jitsu training and experience including a fight under the Pride FC banner. There's some question about his chin, but I don't think that comes into play in this fight. Overall he has a slight edge on the ground where this fight is going to be often.

John has been through some very good training camps as well and has put together a very solid game in the cage. His biggest weakness still seems to be mental -- his confidence is so up and down it makes me very nervous. He looked great against Speer, until he'd spent his load and got bulldozed. It looked like both physical and mental failure. I don't think he'll be able to catch J-Roc in an early sub and as the fight goes on look to him to fade.

Prediction: Rollins via submission

George Sotiropoulos (-500) vs. Billy Miles (+300)
Billy "please don't hit me" Miles looked lackluster at best on the show. George's skill and composure in the cage will easily translate into an early submission victory.

The odds do not provide enough value for a bet here.

Prediction: Sotiropoulos via submission

Ben Saunders (-260) vs. Dan Barrera (+200)
This rematch from the show is actually intriguing simply because of the characters. Ben Saunders -- the very skilled Jeet Kune Do practitioner and all around goof ball -- is paired up again with the ADD, god fearing loon, Barrera. I don't see this fight going much differently simply because Dan is very inexperienced and one dimensional -- he punches ... that's about it. Ben is very well rounded, healthy and knows what he's facing. It adds up to a relatively easy pick, unfortunately it's right on the edge for value. I'd prefer to get a return of more than 40 percent, but I'm placing a bet for the sake of action.

Prediction: Saunders via submission


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Preliminary bouts:

Richie Hightower (-145) vs. Troy "Rude Boy" Mandaloniz (+115)
Hightower, annoying as he may be, has a much more well rounded game than Troy. If Richie sticks to a solid game plan of getting the fight to the ground and working subs he has a very good chance of pulling out a win. However, if he decides to make it a stand up battle he'll eventually get knicked. I'm giving Richie the benefit of the doubt on this one and I'm putting a half bet on him.

Prediction: Hightower via submission

Matt Arroyo (-310) vs. John Kolosci (+250)
This match up again seems like strength vs, skill. Unfortunately for John if he gets the fight to the ground he's in trouble whether he's on the top or the bottom. Arroyo will be looking to showcase his skills and make up for dropping from the semifinals. The huge difference in skill levels will shine brightly in this fight. It's not a great value above -300 but I'm adding another half bet.

Prediction: Arroyo via submission

Roman Mitichyan (-500) vs. Dorian Price (+300)
This one's is all about the odds. Mitichyan is the favorite in this fight because of his sick judo skills, submission experience, and general ability to curse. But come on ... an 80 percent chance to win?! Dorian's record is decent, he's got a very solid submission game himself (90 percent of his wins) and he'll be sporting a significant reach advantage to go along with his solid striking and kicks. Ugh, I feel that Dorian should be around +200, but I'm not convinced that this is his night. The odds say make a bet on Price but my gut says NO.

Prediction: Mitichyan via submission

Jonathan Goulet (-500) vs. Paul Georgieff (+300)
To be honest I know almost nothing about Georgieff. He didn't look too good on the show and as soon as he lost he basically vanished from the series except for a few blurbs about other fighters. Goulet has been on a roller coaster ride in the UFC, but he's is at a much higher skill and experience level than Paul. The odds are too heavy for a bet, but the pick is easy.

Prediction: Goulet via technical knockout

That about does it for this installment of betting tips and advice. Remember to bet smart.

Betting is not for everyone. But if you want to take a stab at it head over to BetUs.com (with a deposit you get a $75 free play) or to compare competitive MMA lines visit Bodog.com.

Enjoy the fights and good luck.


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