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UFC Fight Night 10 odds: Free betting tips and advice from Desert Dog

The UFC schedule for June may not be filled with title bouts, but there are some exciting match ups on the horizon.

And, a few of those are coming tomorrow at UFC Fight Night 10 on June 12, which will air LIVE on Spike television at 9 p.m. EST from the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood, Florida.

Personally, I've got my eye on the rematch between Spencer Fisher and Stout, as well as the Jon Fitch-Roan Carneiro welterweight clash.

I'm secretly hoping to the see Tamdan McCrory go up against Pete Spratt -- McCrory is my favorite pick for the night and it would be nice to see the action.

Without further delay, here are the "smart bets" for UFN 10:

Main card picks:

Spencer Fisher -180 (Bet $100 win $55.56)
Jon Fitch -320 (Bet $100 to win $31.25)
Drew McFedries -200 (Bet $100 to win $50)

Preliminary card picks:

Thiago Tavares +115 (Bet $100 to win $115)
Luigi Fioravanti -300 (No action)
Tamdan McCrory -105 (Bet $100 to win $95.28)
Nate Mohr -145 (No Action)
Gleison Tibau -450 (No action)

(Note: uses odds from

The best value on this card is Thiago Tavares.

Fisher and McFedries are on the edge in terms of value so watch your bet size with those. And, Jon Fitch has a real fight on his hands, but I'm willing to brave these odds for the 30 percent return.

As always, if you are going to bet, only play with what you are willing to lose.

Onto a little more detailed analysis of the pick above for those readers who need a little more reassurance:

Spencer Fisher (-180) vs. Sam Stout (+150)
Last time around (UFC 58 in March 2006) I was glued to the television and thought Fisher had pulled out the win. The split decision wasn't what either fighter -- or most fans -- wanted to see.

Now we get to watch as they get after it again.

Stout returned to the Canadian-based TKO promotion after his first round loss to Kenny Florian at The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 3 Finale in June 2006. Since that time, Stout has tacked on two more wins, including his first via submission (armbar). I doubt this marks a new fight style for "Hands of Stone," but it does show he has improved his ground skills.

Stout looks as strong as ever -- and with what we've seen -- he can take some serious punishment if this turns into a war.

Fisher was one step away from being a title contender until he ran into the wild fists of Hermes Franca at UFN 8 in January. Now he's looking for a solid win to point him back in the direction of the belt.

His gameplan in this fight will look a lot like the first meeting -- there's no need to change what works. The stand up game between these two may be a wash, but Fisher has the ability to get the fight to the ground and impose his will and sap Stout's energy.

I'm looking forward to another war of attrition. This is a very tight match up, but with a slight advantage and the current odds my money is on Fisher.

Prediction: Fisher via technical knockout.

Jon Fitch (-320) vs. Roan Carneiro (+260)
Fitch has quietly notched five consecutive wins inside the Octagon, extending his streak to 12 straight victories.

I'm not sure I can sum up this bout much better than Fitch did himself:

"He [Carneiro] poses a serious threat as far as his size – he's a big 170 pounder. Most of his fights were at 185. He's a really good wrestler; I watched his Abu Dhabi matches, he has very good takedowns and very good takedown defense, and I'm pretty sure he's extremely strong and athletic, so the biggest problem he poses for me is that I really don't know if I'll be able to physically impose my will on him. This will be something where I'm challenged to defeat him technically."

I definitely believe Fitch has the technical prowess to finish Roan. However, he has to watch out for the Anaconda – Roan's favorite move – which he moves into very nicely from the clinch.

This looks to be a very technical fight with a moderate chance that it will go to a decision. This is where Fitch has to be careful -- he can't afford to appear that he is not in control while he seeks out a weakness to exploit.

My straight pick is a chalk bet on Fitch. However, if the odds get too ridiculous (+320 or better) I'll have to go with Roan to squeak out a decision.

Watch this line carefully.

Prediction: Fitch via submission late in the fight.

Drew McFedries (-200) vs. Jordan Radev (+160)
Martin Kampman said it best after his fight with McFedries:

"That guy hits fuck'n hard man."

Drew's punching power and aggression are his towering strengths, but his loss to Kampmann left open the question what happens when he gets taken down?

Drew has garnered a bit more attention in the Miletich camp after securing his UFC contract and with training -- focusing on his defense and ground game -- he looks to be making the right moves for this fight.

Fortunately for Drew, Radev is not what you'd call a wizard on the ground.

Radev is a 5'7" fire plug from Bulgaria. His fighting base is in wrestling, but he prefers to box until he can close the distance. As you would expect from a wrestler he has good takedowns, but, I'm not sure with the size difference that he will have very effective takedowns in the clinch (McFedries will have significant reach and strength advantages).

I see some good stand up exchanges early in the first round and then McFedries punching power will overwhelm Jordan late in the first or early in the second round. Another chalk bet on McFedries at -250 or better.

Prediction: McFedries via technical knockout in round two.

Jason Black (-145) vs. Thiago Tavares (+115)
The undercard looks to be filled with characters from Freaks and Geeks.

Black -- another Miletich product -- is close to the top of the freak list. He sports an impressive record (22-2), including two fights overseas in PRIDE FC. He's finished the majority of his fights via submission.

Thiago has been on a tear for the last 4 1/2 years, putting together an impressive -- and perfect -- record (15-0). In fact, all but three of his wins have come by way of submission.

Hopefully, this mix doesn't spell boring.

This is another tight match up and whoever can gain and maintain ground control will likely walk away with a decision.

Prediction: Tavares via decision.

Luigi Fioravanti (-300) vs. Forrest Petz (+240)
Luigi looked very good in his last bout ... Petz, on the other hand, not so much.

There's value at -220 or better. Otherwise, no action on this one.

Prediction: Fioravanti via submission.

Tamdan McCrory (-135) vs. Pete Spratt (+105)

At 6'4" -- and 170 pounds -- McCrory "The Barn Cat" looks like a flimsy toothpick, but his record (9-0) says he's got some game.

I compiled some video footage and got some info from one friend who saw him fight in person. His stand up looks solid and his takedowns, especially in the clinch, looked very good. He also looks to have a very aggressive style, finishing most of his fights via technical knockout.

Spratt's experience and athleticism should prevail in this fight.

However, Tamdan's ridiculous reach advantage, snappy kicks, and general aggression could provide some real problems for Spratt. Again, Spratt should win this fight, but McCrory has the tools to overcome the "Secret Weapon."

Prediction: McCrory to somehow, someway, to get the win.

Nate Mohr (-145) vs. Luke Caudillo (+115)
Mohr's stand up looked very strong and crisp in his last fight with Kurt Pelligrino ... right up until Kurt snagged a foot and tapped him out. In that fight, however, Mohr was a last-minute replacement.

Even still, Mohr showed he was ready to go.

Luke Caudillo is no slouch in the realm of stand up either. This should be another solid lightweight bout in the mold of Stout vs. Fisher. I'm leaning toward Mohr simply because his technique and power look much more polished.

The odds are providing a bit of value for a Mohr bet. I'm putting my money elsewhere, but if you're a fan put your money behind him.

Prediction: Mohr via technical decision

Gleison Tibau (-450) vs. Jeff Cox (+325)
Man, where are all these 6'4" lightweights coming from?

Cox is a Cleveland, Ohio, cop and trains with Forrest Petz and others. He's been fighting at 170 ponds and now wants to become the "skini-me" of Randy Couture. He has a very respectable submission game but it is very outclassed when compared to Gleison's.

The best shot Jeff has at a win is keeping the battle standing and using his reach.

I doubt that Gleison will let him get away with that for very long. Tiabau -- who has also fought at 170 -- should be overwhelm Mohr with his technically superior ground game.

Prediction: Tibau via decision.

That's a wrap folks. I'll be back later in the week to share some more insight on the UFC 72: "Victory" card that is set for this Saturday, June 16.

These two upcoming events are not the "sexiest" of the year by far. But, there are some great match ups that can be made a little more great by plunking down a little action.

A friendly wager always makes the fights that much more interesting when there is money to be won. And, with both these cards, there are opportunities to make some nice profits.

Head over to if you've got an itch that just can't be scratched.

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