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UFC Fight Night 9 betting tips and advice from Desert Dog

Desert Dog back again to shed some light on tonight's action.

Odds from were a little late coming out, which is the reason this write up is a tad late than the other column. But, it doesn't matter because most fight fans wait until the day of the event to wager (unless some unreal odds come out of the gate that are too good to pass up).

I like to play a little different style when betting the Fight Night cards. There tend to be several newcomers to the UFC who are eager to put on a great show, hoping to bag their own piece of the MMA pie. The cards are often full of upsets in terms of the odds.

So, this is a good opportunity to focus on the underdog bets.

Most of the fights are in the lightweight and middleweight divisions, so the action should be fast-paced. And in that vein, let's keep the bets exciting too -- nothing but dogs.

Drop down the size of your bets for this event so you can save some bank for UFC 69 (some very sweet bets there).

Here are the quick smart bets for UFN 9:
Melvin Guillard +135: 1 point to win 1.35
Justin McCully +350: 0.5 points to win 1.75
Dokonjonosuke Mishima +250: 1 point to win 2.5
Roan Carniero +130: 0.5 points to win 0.65

To place a bet now click here and get a $50 free play with a $100 deposit.

For those who want a little more explanation behind those recommendations -- instead of just betting blind -- check out the detailed analysis below.

Joe Stevenson (-180) vs. Melvin Guillard (+135)
Put simply, this should be an entertaining fight.

Joe "Daddy" is a strong, fast ground and pounder with decent submissions. He's enjoying his new found life in the lightweight division and showing his brut strength at this weight. Joe is looking to work more of the same in this fight, pushing the action to the ground any chance he gets.

Melvin is just looking to take someone's head off. His speed and strength get top marks, but his weakness has been takedown defense and working off of his back. He has a decent wrestling background and has been training his takedown defense for this fight. Guillard -- an infamous shit talker -- called Joe "nothin' but a little Jui-Jitsu rat." Don't let the talk fool you: he knows firsthand the dangers of taking someone's ground game lightly.

If this fight goes the distance Stevenson will win, but I'm looking to an early KO finish by Melvin Guillard.

Antoni Hardonk (-600) vs Justin McCully (+350)
Hardonk's original opponent was Frank Mir who pulled out because of an injury. His new opponent is Justin McCully -- a Tito Ortiz training partner. This Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt counts all but one win by way of submission and I'm sure working out with Team Punishment his takedowns and wrestling are pretty good. He's put his last few opponents away in the first round and feels confident he's ready for this fight.

Hardonk is a Muay Thai/Wrestling style fighter, who made his UFC debut back in November at UFC 65 with a TKO stoppage due to a leg kick. I think he looked solid in his last fight -- his guard was tight. But, who knows how he'll do with a jiu-jitsu fighter.

If Hardonk can keep it on the feet he will likely destroy McCully, but I think the odds are way off on this fight. This one is definitely worth a bet for Justin.

Kenny Florian (-175) vs Dokonjonosuke Mishima (+250)
Is Kenny good enough fight to have fought for the belt?

I was never impressed with his performance; he strikes me as more a survivor than a finisher or top contender. Mishima has a very unique style both on the ground and stand up that will make for a good show and let us see if Kenny is as good as some believe. Florian will be the favorite in this fight, but this is another spot where the odds dictate a bet on Mishma to upset. beats all the other books on this bet by 70-90 points.

Drew Fickett (-150) vs. Keita Nakamura (+110)
Fickett has a solid set of wins in the UFC, including Neer and Koscheck, but he faltered when facing top competition from Diaz, Burkman and Parisyan. Nakamura, on the other hand, was unbeaten until his UFC debut last December when he lost to the very good and very unknown Brock Larson. Nakamura and Fickett have similar styles and interestingly both have won most of their fights by rear naked choke. This will be a three round battle and likely go to decision. I believe Nakamura has a great shot in this one but the odds are too flat for a bet.

Kurt Pellegrino(-NA) vs. Nate Mohr (+NA)
Pellegrino is an exciting jiu-jitsu fighter who has put together some great striking as well. Kurt's original opponent, Wander Braga, would have been a fantastic match-up, but with the work visa problems for Braga it was not to be. Pellegrino has been working his stand-up in preparation for Braga and says plans to stick with it for his new fight. But make no mistake, if Kurt doesn't like how the standup is going he should be able to end this fight at will on the ground.

Pellegrino's new challenger is Nate Mohr, who will be making his UFC debut. Nate appears to be a pretty solid stand up fighter and recently received his blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. This isn't Nate's first time taking a fight on short notice, reported that his first loss was in a fight that he took on 20 minutes notice! That says he has a fighters heart to me and I'm sure Dana will reward him with a future if he puts on a decent show.

Pellegrino by submission, but obviously no bet with no lines offered.

Thiago Tavares (-400) vs Naoyuki Kotani (+250)
Taveres has a standout ground game with almost all wins by way of tapout. Kotani has a lot of fights and has won mostly by submission; however, his game is no where near Thiago's. This ones going to be an outclassed ground game with Tavares winning. Unfortunately, the odds are to heavy for a bet. Also Kotani has lost to Rich Clemnti ... and on that note.

Rich Clementi (-170) vs. Roan Carneiro (+130)
Someone wake me up when this one is over ... Clementi isn't very impressive. He's better suited as a workout partner than an actual fighter ... OK that's a little too harsh. Carneiro trains with Brazilian Top Team and is a jiu-jitsu guy and pretty good at it. This is his first venture into the UFC, but he should have enough to beat Rich. The odds are a little slim but a small bet on Carneiro could turn out to be a smart move.

Wilson Gouveia (-250) vs. Seth Petruzelli (+175)
Gouveia trains with American Top Team (ATT) -- a plus right off the bat. His record has been a bit up and down. His two most resent losses were to Keith Jardine and Rory Singer, but he has a win over Jon Fitch back in 2002. His last fight was against Wes Combs at UFC 62, winning via rear naked choke in the first round and really showcasing his skills in the process.

Petruzelli has done well in smaller events, but in the UFC he's been beat by Brad Imes and Matt Hamill. His one win on TUF was against Dan Christianson and even against a totally out of shape opponent he was only able to eek out 29-28 decision. Gouveia wins this one by submission.

Kuniyoshi Hironaka (-200) vs. Forrest Petz (+150)
The quick and dirty .... Petz looks soft (not to say looks are important) but he's not very athletic. Forrest has a good skill set but it's just not enough at the UFC level. In his last fight he got destroyed by a very good Marcus Davis.

On the other hand, Hironaka lost his first UFC fight to a very good Jon Fitch by decision. Hironaka is very athletic and has a well rounded game, is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Judo, and is ranked #7 in Shooto. He's favored for a reason . And, he will take this one by submission.

That's a wrap folks. Don't forget to place bets with -- the odds are good and the sportsbook does payout winners. Remember to save a little coin for UFC 69 this weekend -- there are some great lines coming out already. I'll be back with another column and smart bets for "Shootout" in the next day or so.

In the meantime, good luck!

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