As promised, Desert Dog back with my first batch of picks for UFCmaniacs and the first-ever show this weekend in Columbus, Ohio.
In my first post yesterday, I touched on basic betting tips and answered questions about the process. It's definitely worth checking out, especially if you are new to UFC betting.
Today, I'm going to offer up some bets that have decent value and should be considered prior to placing wagers with an online sportsbook such as BetUs.com.
UFC 68: "The Uprising" features Dana White's favorite batch of good ole' boys: UFC Heavyweight Champion Tim Sylvia, former heavyweight and light heavyweight champion Randy Couture, former middleweight champion Rich Franklin and former welterweight champion Matt Hughes.
For obvious reasons, there is a lot of interest in these fights. More important, there are a few ripe betting opportunities.
Just to be clear: I'll make picks for each fight. However, when it comes to bets I'll only recommend a set that have the best odds of putting us in the GREEN at the end of the night.
The bets below will be listed in points. Therefore, you can easily track results and apply the picks to bet amounts that fit your bankroll. The standard bet size is 1-2 percent of your bankroll. For the sake of comparison, I often use 5 percent.
It's important that you decide what works for you and your style before getting in on the action.
Onto the bets, the basis for which are courtesy of the competitive odds provided by BetUs.com. Overall, BetUs.com is releasing solid betting lines recently. It is one of the primary reasons UFCmania chose to work exclusively with them.
If you're here just to snag a quick tip for Saturday, then below you'll see Desert Dog's smart bets for UFC 68. Feel free to read the rest of the analysis below if you want to know the thinking behind each bet.
There's nothing worse than having to slog through tons and tons of rambling, wishy-washy nonsense just to find the answers you want.
So, here we go ... drumroll please ... Desert Dog's smart bets for UFC 68 with odds courtesy of BetUS.com:
Randy Couture +220: 1 point to win 2.20 points
Jason MacDonald +400: 1 point to win 4 points (caution)
Matt Hughes -500: 5 points to win 1 point
Martin Kampmann –280: 2.8 points to win 1 point
Renato Sobral –350: 3.5 points to win 1 point
Jon Fitch –340: 3.4 points to win 1 point
There are never any "locks" in MMA. That's because anything can and sometimes does happen. However, if I had to pick the safest bet out of the bunch it would be Hughes.
In addition, the best odds for an underdog payoff is a toss up, but I‘d lean toward Couture. There are four solid "chalk" bets here that I use to offset the two underdog plays. This is more bets than I typically play in a night, so you may want to trim off a couple of these.
Main card bouts:
Tim Sylvia (-280) vs. Randy Couture (+220)
As expected, Tim Sylvia came in as the favorite in this match up at -275 and his price has drifted a bit higher to -280. In my opinion, anything more than -170 is too much. On the flip side, anything over +200 is a good deal on Couture.
"The Maine-iac" is what you might call BIG. At 6'8," and cutting to weight to meet the 265-pound UFC heavyweight limit, Sylvia probably enters the Octagon at 270-75 or more. Tim's reach is reported at 84," which is huge. However, in fighting terms reach should be measured shoulder to knuckles because that is the true gap an opponent has to close. Couture, on the other hand, has a reach of 76." That sounds like an 8" disadvantage, but the real reach advantage is 3-4" for Sylvia.
Put simply, reach will be an issue, but not insurmountable as many believe.
The biggest difference in this fight is weight. Timmay could easily outweigh Randy by 40-50 pounds — a lot for anyone. If Couture can close the gap and takedown Sylvia, he'll have to be very precise and technical. This may not be too hard in rounds one or two; however, if he doesn't get something done before then it's going to feel like trying to uproot an Oak tree as the fight goes on.
Couture's biggest advantages will be speed, experience and a wider array of weapons than most of Sylvia's previous opponents. Sylvia is going to play the game he always plays: sprawl and brawl, stay outside and let the long limbs fly.
Plain and simple, Couture should win this fight at least 40 percent of the time. However, the odds say he only has about a 31 percent chance. That's a big betting edge and a bet I have to take. Couture by — and I hate to say it — decision.
Rich Franklin (-500) vs. Jason MacDonald (+400)
Everyone seems to be looking past this fight ... DON'T. This has the potential to be a shocker on the main card and a definite +EV betting on this dog. If this bet makes you nervous, then knock it down to a half-bet.
The match up is the classic power/standup vs. technical ground game. One of Franklin's biggest strengths is his size for a 185-pound fighter. MacDonald, however, is just as big (one inch taller actually), has a slight reach advantage and a technically superior ground game. Without question, Franklin will have a distinct advantage in the standup
It will be interesting to see how Franklin responds to the second loss of his career ... and a devastating one at that. It's one of those mental intangibles that doesn't show up anywhere in the stats. Not taking anything away from the former champion, but something tells me he is also coming into this fight with little respect for his opponent, which is always dangerous.
MacDonald has some impressive wins over Chris Leben, Ed Herman, Joe Doerkson and Gideon Ray. However, he also has some bad losses to Patrick Cote and Kalib Starnes. Put simply, this fight will show us who is the real Jason Macdonald.
In betting terms, +400 on McDonald means sportsbooks are only giving him a 20 percent chance to win. I believe his odds are closer to 30 percent, which is a significant edge that I am willing to put money on. That's right, time to give the dog a bone — MacDonald by submission in the second round.
Matt Hughes (-500) vs. Chris Lytle (+400)
I'm just going to touch on this fight quickly because Matt Hughes (40-5) — nine-time champion, Miletich prodigy and perhaps the most dominant welterweight ever — is up against top welterweight contender ... Chris Lytle (22-13-5)? In his first bout since losing the 170-pound crown, it seems as though the true top contenders in the division only want to fight Hughes if the belt is involved.
This fight should be a very one-sided version of the Lytle vs. Matt Serra fight. The difference here is Hughes' explosive takedowns and his power on the ground. In Lytle's last fight, he was unable to utilize his stand up game against the smaller Serra. In addition, he was not doing too much damage in the clinch.
Hughes should have no problem overpowering Lytle en route to a second-round technical knockout. Hughes will not make the same mistake in this fight like he did in his loss to Georges St. Pierre, believing that he's a boxer.
Current polls have Hughes as a 9:1 favorite and so far the betting line is holding steady at -500. This makes Hughes an excellent chalk bet. In fact, BetUs.com beat the other books on this fight by 150, so get it while it's hot!
Renato "Babalu" Sobral (-350) vs. Jason Lambert (+275)
Look for some fast-paced action in the match up between Renato "Babalu" Sobral and Jason "Sausage Tits" Lambert. Lambert's record (22-6) was looking pretty strong at 5-0 in the UFC with wins over Brandon Lee Hinkle (the unconscious guy in the Monson highlights) and an out-of-shape Terry Martin.
However, his brights were dimmed in his last fight against Rashad Evens at UFC 63. Lambert was dominated in all facets of the fight. However, Lambert possesses heavy hands, as well as good strength and technique on the ground. Unfortunately, match up wise this fight sucks for Lambert.
That's because "Sausage Tits" likes a tight fight in which he can get control on the ground and pound out a technical knockout or sink-in a submission. He's not going to control Babalu on the ground and he doesn't have the reach or speed to make it a fight standing up.
Babalu has a long and impressive record (27 -6). He was on a 10-win streak until his rematch with Chuck Liddell. In the last six years, he has only lost to three fighters: Liddell, UFC light heavyweight champ; Fedor Emelianenko, PRIDE FC heavyweight champ (by decision); and the monster Kevin Randelman.
Sobral is a submission specialist with surprisingly slick speed. His movement against most standup fighters has been very good and, other than the fight with Liddell, he has been able to get the fight to the ground where he can take over. A solid chalk bet here for Babalu by submission ... lets say an ankle lock.
Martin Kampmann (-220) vs. Drew McFedries (+280)
Martin "Hitman" Kampman (14-2) of Denmark was a relative unknown until fight fans got to see his relentless stand up as he dismantled Thales Lietes at The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 4 Finale. His record is well rounded with victories evenly split between TKOs and submissions. His last loss was a stoppage because of a cut. And, since then he has won his last seven fights.
Drew McFedries (5-1) fights out of the Miletich camp (yes, another one), and has shown that he prefers to strike. His UFC debut against Allesio Sakara at UFC 65 showed everyone just how heavy his hands can be. Hopefully, he has trained on his speed and conditioning. Otherwise, the well rounded and technically better Kampmann will run circles around him.
With this fight on the main card look for both fighters to step up the pace and try to impress. However, the more polished and experienced Kampmann should prevail. I see a flurry of precision punches transitioned surprisingly into a rear naked choke submission in the second round.
Jon Fitch (-340) vs. Luigi Fioravanti (+280)
Jon Fitch is a top level welterweight contender on an 11-fight win streak. His only two losses were back in 2002. Fitch is a well rounded fighter, taking his fights with an even mix of TKOs, submissions and decisions. This fight will be his fifth bout inside the Octagon. And, with impressive wins last year over Josh Burkman (rear naked choke) and Thiago Alves (TKO), the UFC will have to shine a brighter light on him soon.
This showdown was originally scheduled as a main bout, but was moved down to a preliminary fight. Fitch — who was publicly upset — will look to win convincingly and remind the UFC of his potential.
Fioravanti — fighting with American Top Team (ATT) — was very active in 2006 with six pro fights, three of which were in the UFC. Unfortunately for Fioravanti, 2006 also brought his first loss — a unanimous decision in his brawl with Leben. Primarily a stand up fighter, Fioravanti has good movement and a solid chin. In the dominant position on the ground, he's a "ground ‘n pounder," but when he's on his back his best move is scrambling.
There's little chance of a decent fighter being submitted by Fioravanti. His other weaknesses are his height/reach and he holds his hands way too low for a 5'8" fighter. His move down to 170 puts him in the right weight class, but doesn't make him any taller.
Look for Fitch to use his reach advantage and keep this a standup fight. If it does go to the ground, Fitch should control the action. Fitch should win this fight 90 percent of the time. However, Fioravanti has a 10 percent puncher's chance.
Overall, the odds are in our favor to make the chalk bet on Fitch.
Matt Hamill (-280) vs. Rex Holman (+220)
Whoooo! Two top level wrestlers prepare to throw marshmallows.
Matt Hamill (2-0) has been training with Team Punishment and is still looking to turn his superior takedown skills into a serious ground and pound game. So far nothing impressive, with his last win over Seth Petruzelli showing he can get a fight to the ground and control it, but nothing says finisher yet.
Rex Holman (4-1), who is also a national champion wrestler, has actually won three of his fights with strikes, but his competition in those fights is questionable. I've only seen one video of him fighting and he looked very awkward in trying to finish. In that fight, Holman was eventually beaten with a rear naked choke.
Hamill should have an edge here both in strength and in training. Holman, who wrestled for Ohio State, will be making his UFC debut in front of a hometown crowd. Crowds don't win fights, however — strength and training do.
Therefore, Hamill by technical knockout G'n'P style. When Hamill finally faces a fighter with real striking skills it will be over quickly, but Saturday is not the night.
Gleison Tibau (-240) vs. Jason Dent (+200)
These two fighters actually have a lot in common:
Both have more than 10 fights in smaller organizations, have won the majority of their fights by submission and lost their UFC debuts (Dent lost to Huerta and Tibau lost to Diaz).
The big differences are style and size.
Tibau is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter who now trains with ATT. He's been in the 170-pound division most of his career. This move to lightweight should really add to his strength and speed advantage.
Dent is a Muay Thai fighter with good technical stand up skills and a very strong ground game. If this fight stays on the ground it will be a snoozer with Tibau getting the decision for control. However, if they spend more time on their feet Dent gets the decision.
In the end, I think Tibau wins by decision, but it's too tight for me to put any money on this one.
Jamie Varner (-320) vs. Jason Gilliam (+260)
Jamie "The Worm" Varner (5'8") has been cutting his teeth impressively in smaller venues, racking up an 11-1 record before his UFC debut last August. Unfortunately for Varner, his first UFC fight was against Hermes Franca. The fast-paced bout was up and down until the third round, during which Franca made Varner tapout via armbar. Varner is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter with eight of his 11 victories coming by way of submission.
Jason "The Gizzard" Gilliam (6'0") is undefeated in his MMA career (9-0). This will be Gizzards UFC debut ... what's up with that name? Anyway, he's finished most of his fights quickly (four in 30 seconds or less) with punches, although his last win was a 29-second submission by rear naked choke. Gilliam is moving down from 170 for this fight and should have significant reach and height advantages. I've seen some of his fights and he reminds me a lot of Josh Neer.
The early polls were close to 90 percent for Varner, which made Gilliam a solid bet. However, the odds on this fight changed a lot today, making it a poor value bet. Having said that, I feel that Gilliam will win this fight in the first round via technical knockout.
Again, despite the recent change in odds, I'm still picking Gilliam as an upset. However, the value right now is not there for a bet. Continue to monitor this line closely.
That's a wrap for Desert Dog's UFC 68 picks. Feel free to leave comments and ask questions leading up until the fight.
It's important to note that these betting lines change often. Therefore, be sure to check BetUs.com for the latest odds.
In addition, BetUs.com offers a $50 free play when you open an account and deposit $100. It's a great offer that first-timers should not pass up ... it's free money!
Just click on the banner in the left sidebar or the links in this post to get up-and-running. Best of luck, maniacs!
And don't forget that I'll be checking in frequently to answer all your betting-related questions — don't be shy!