Y'all ready for this?
We're just hours away from one of the craziest Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) clusters of fights in ages. Three events, three days, five title fights ... and it all starts with the Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Eddie Alvarez-led UFC Fight Night 90 and ending with the monumental bicentennial milestone that is UFC 200.
And with so many matches scheduled for a 72-hour period, comes a ridiculous amount of gambling opportunities. Strap yourselves in fight fans because you're gonna be here a while.
UFC Fight Night 90 Odds:
Rafael Dos Anjos (-330) vs. Eddie Alvarez (+270)
Roy Nelson (-130) vs. Derrick Lewis (+110)
Alan Jouban (-115) vs. Belal Muhammad (-105)
Joseph Duffy (-425) vs. Mitch Clarke (+340)
Mike Pyle (-120) vs. Alberto Mina (+100)
Anthony Birchak (-255) vs. Dileno Lopes (+215)
John Makdessi (-110) vs. Mehdi Baghdad (-110)
Pedro Munhoz (-255) vs. Russell Doane (+215)
Felipe Arantes (-165) vs. Jerrod Sanders (+145)
Vicente Luque (-450) vs. Alvaro Herrera (+360)
Gilbert Burns (-250) vs. Lukasz Sajewski (+210)
Reginaldo Vieira (-130) vs. Marco Beltran (+110)
The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 23 Finale Odds:
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-120) vs. Claudia Gadelha (EVEN)
Will Brooks (-380) vs. Ross Pearson (+315)
Doo Ho Choi (-235) vs. Thiago Tavares (+195)
Anthony Smith (-145) vs. Cezar Ferreira (+125)
John Moraga (-170) vs. Matheus Nicolau (+150)
Li Jingliang (-345) vs. Anton Zafir (+285)
Joaquim Silva (-130) vs. Andrew Holbrook (+110)
Jake Matthews (-135) vs. Kevin Lee (+115)
Gray Maynard (-140) vs. Fernando Bruno (+120)
UFC 200 Odds:
Jon Jones (-290) vs. Daniel Cormier (+245)
Mark Hunt (-170) vs. Brock Lesnar (+150)
Miesha Tate (-250) vs. Amanda Nunes (+210)
Frankie Edgar (-115) vs. Jose Aldo (-105)
Cain Velasquez (-275) vs. Travis Browne (+235)
Cat Zingano (-185) vs. Julianna Pena (+160)
Johny Hendricks (-120) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (EVEN)
T.J. Dillashaw (-440) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+350)
Sage Northcutt (-345) vs. Enrique Marin (+285)
Joe Lauzon (-115) vs. Diego Sanchez (-115)
Gegard Mousasi (-275) vs. Thiago Santos (+235)
Jim Miller (-245) vs. Takanori Gomi (+205)
Thoughts: Doo Ho Choi apparently opened at -175 -- How beautiful would that have been?
Do you know the annoying thing about these mega-events? So much betting happens that all the lines tend to wind up where they should be. The bargains don’t last more than a day or two before my fellow degenerates snap them all up. In any case, there are still some lines worth looking at: Derrick Lewis at +110, Mike Pyle at -120, Pedro Munhoz at -255, Gilbert Burns at -250, the aforementioned Choi at -235, and Jose Aldo at -105.
I was going to recommend Mark Hunt as well but, well, Mir Curse.
Roy Nelson has better cardio than his build would suggest, but it’s still not great. He’s good for about a round unless his opponent is as inactive as Jared Rosholt. On the other hand, against someone like Lewis -- who pushes a tremendous pace and carries his power late -- he’s going to be sucking wind after five minutes.
He could, of course, take Lewis’ head off in the first round with an overhand right, but Nelson’s game has been easy to counter for some time. So long as Lewis circles to his own right and gets on top at least once, he has this.
The first three minutes of any Mike Pyle fight comprises waiting for "Quicksand" to get knocked down and then seeing if he gets back up. If you can’t put him away during that one golden window, you’re not going to get another one. If not, the veteran comes on incredibly strong in the later parts of the fight with his murderous clinch and groundwork. Mina was dead on his feet for the last five minutes of his fight with Yoshihiro Akiyama and has only ever gone past the first round three times. Pyle ought to be way too much for him from the second round on.
Munhoz, recent loss to Jimmie Rivera notwithstanding, is a beast with solid punching power and a terrific ground game. Doane, primarily a grappler himself, is sorely outclassed on the ground and doesn’t have the strong wrestling necessary to offset that disadvantage. "Young Punisher" has the edge in most areas of the game, so shove him in a parlay and reap the benefits.
Lukasz Sajewski is a below-average striker and a solid grappler. Gilbert Burns is a decent striker and a world-class grappler. "Durinho" is still a great prospect despite his loss to fellow badass Rashid Magomedov and I’m quite confident he’ll prove it on Thursday night.
Thiago Tavares has been knocked out four times in UFC and Choi has knocked out seven men in a row. It’s not the hardest fight to pick.
I was there in Las Vegas when Jose Aldo first fought Frankie Edgar. The Brazilian utterly dominated him in the first round and controlled the second and third before eventually running low on steam in the championship rounds. After seeing Aldo turn aside Chad Mendes’ furious onslaught for five brutal rounds, I have plenty of faith in his ability to avoid a repeat.
The McGregor debacle has, in my opinion, made people forget just how freakishly good Aldo is. I fully expect him to end Edgar’s current title hopes.
UFC Fight Night 90, TUF 20, UFC 200 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Derrick Lewis: Bet $50 to make $55
- Parlay -- Mike Pyle and Pedro Munhoz: Bet $70 to make $108.50
- Parlay -- Gilbert Burns and Doo Ho Choi: Bet $80 to make $80
- Single bet -- Jose Aldo: Bet $60 to make $57.14
I've already got the Advil ready and some papers on carpal tunnel relief. Hope your preparations are up, Maniacs.