Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will finally send welterweight champion Robbie Lawler back to the Octagon when he meets Tyron Woodley, the most patient 170-pound title contender in the history of mixed martial arts (MMA), in the UFC 201 pay-per-view (PPV) main event.
Combined, these two haven't seen action in over two years.
The action takes place tomorrow night (Sat., July 30, 2016) inside Philips Arena in Atlanta Georgia, and features a co-main event between top strawweight contender Rose Namajunas and undefeated 115-pound standout Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
Elsewhere on the card, Matt Brown tests the deteriorating chin of Jake Ellenberger.
For a closer look at the UFC 201 preliminary card action, see what our beloved Patty Stumberg had to say about them here and here. Odds, betting lines, and best bets for the entire "Lawler vs. Woodley" line up, with "Prelims" on UFC Fight Pass and FOX Sports 2, can be perused here.
Now then, let's get to work.
170 lbs.: "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler (27-10, 1 NC) vs. Tyron "Chosen One" Woodley (15-3)
Nostradumbass predicts: When you look at this championship fight on paper, or wax about it with great bombast with the boys at the bar, it's easy to get swept up in the aura of Robbie Lawler, who might be the scariest fifth-round fighter in all of combat sports.
But we need to cut through the hype.
I don't think it's outrageous to suggest that he may have lost his most recent bout against Carlos Condit, and let's also remember he was losing the Rory MacDonald contest before "Red King's" face exploded. The fight before that? Another split with Johny Hendricks.
Granted, these are (or were) the best the division has to offer, but Lawler is not the deity fans make him out to be.
"Ruthless" is the same power-punching Kaiju he's always been: Ferocious, bloodthirsty, and easy to hit. That makes him a target for Tyron Woodley, but not necessarily a victim. For all the things "The Chosen One" does right, he does just as many that are wrong.
And his consistency is more of an issue for me than his layoff.
Five rounds sucks for most fighters and I'm not sure what Woodley is going to do if he gets that far, as his extended absence will likely betray him in the championship rounds. He can win this fight with his boxing if he's able to take advantage of Lawler's predictable slow start.
I just can's shake the sight of his lame-duck performance against Macdonald, or even the ailing Kelvin Gastelum.
If the Woodley who knocked around Condit shows up, this fight will be very, very interesting. If not, expect to see "The Chosen One" become the frozen one, as Lawler will eventually hulk up and start dropping bombs, not unlike Nate Marquardt's fatality back in 2012.
It may not be flawless, but it should still be a victory.
Final prediction: Lawler def. Woodley by technical knockout
115 lbs.: "Thug" Rose Namajunas (5-2) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-0)
Nostradumbass predicts: The best thing about watching Rose Namajunas compete is the amount of improvement she makes from fight-to-fight. That's to be expected from a combatant -- clearly blessed with the physical tools to make pain -- who made her UFC debut at just 22 years old.
She's practically unrecognizable from the fighter who was upended by Carla Esparza in late 2014.
Since that fight, we've seen a more patient, methodical "Thug" who is less reckless -- but no less dangerous. The result was three consecutive wins over increasingly-tougher competition, including last April's "W" over TUF 20 standout Tecia Torres.
Not sure I can say the same about her opponent.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz is undefeated and jumped out to a quick 2-0 start in UFC, but her level of competition is mediocre, at best. Heather Jo Clark is unranked at 115 pounds and Randa Markos barely cracks the list at No. 14. By comparison, Namajunas has already faced three top-10 foes.
Two in the top five.
Kowalkiewicz is an accomplished striker with incredible output, but quantity is likely to yield to quality in this contest. Namajunas is not the sitting duck the Pole may be used to knocking around, and "Thug's" wrestling and jiu-jitsu game are likely to be the difference makers.
This one is all about momentum.
Final prediction: Namajunas def. Kowalkiewicz by submission
170 lbs.: "Immortal" Matt Brown (20-14) vs. Jake "Juggernaut" Ellenberger (30-11)
Nostradumbass predicts: This is a winnable fight for Jake Ellenberger, which is a tough thing to type when you consider he's looked like absolute garbage since 2013. Not only has he lost five of his last six, he's been finished -- convincingly -- three times during that span.
Sorry, but plastering a washed-up Josh Koscheck is not cause for celebration.
Getting back to the winning part, I think it's no secret that Matt Brown is susceptible to wrestlers. He also lives and dies by the sword; meaning, that his no-punch-no-glory style of offense leaves him vulnerable to counterattacks, depending on the voraciousness of his opponent.
Ellenberger has not looked hungry in a long, long time.
I'm not sure what's changed between now and his last defeat, which came at the hands of Tarec Saffiedine back in January, but "The Juggernaut" has been saying all the right things in camp. But then again, doesn't everybody? At least he's no longer training with this guy.
This feels like one of the easier fights to unpack.
Ellenberger used to be a big deal at 170 pounds, but somewhere along the way he stopped fighting to win and started fighting not to lose. In contrast, Brown is the same killer he's always been: a maniacal power puncher who is easy to predict, but hard to survive.
A first-round finish would not surprise me.
Final prediction: Brown def. Ellenberger via technical knockout
135 lbs.: Erik "El Goyito" Perez (15-6) vs. Francisco "Cisco" Rivera (11-6, 1 NC)
Nostradumbass predicts: I find it puzzling that two bantamweight fighters who are unranked in their division would find their way onto the main card of a major PPV event, but then again, my tiny brain is easily confused so perhaps the obvious reason eludes me.
No matter.
Perez has been around the UFC block for over four years now and despite a red-hot start -- to the tune of three straight wins (and finishes) -- a 2-2 run since Aug. 2013 has cooled some of his momentum. It also doesn't help that said losses came against middle-of-the-pack'rs Takeya Mizugaki and Bryan Caraway.
When he's on, "El Goyito" is a deadly finisher, ending 11 of 15 wins by knockout or submission.
Francisco Rivera is no slouch himself, though it's troubling that an MMA fighter in 2016 has zero submission wins in 18 trips to the cage. How much stock you put into his 1-4 record since late 2013 likely depends on how you viewed his fight against Urijah Faber, marred by an eye-poke controversy.
Or his questionable decision loss to Brad Pickett.
Rivera is a dangerous counterpuncher and that will serve him well in a fight where he shares an equal height and reach with his opponent. Similarly, both he and Perez stand orthodox, though I'm inclined to believe "El Goyito" is a bit more fleet-footed.
Expect a close, back and forth affair.
Final prediction: Perez def. Rivera by split decision
Note: The preview below upgraded from "Prelims" breakdown by Patty Stumberg following the cancellation of Ian McCall vs. Justin Scoggins (full story here).
125 lbs.: Ryan "Baby Face" Benoit (8-4) vs. Fredy "Bam Bam" Serrano (3-0)
Patrick Stumberg predicts: Following his "Fight of the Night" debut against Josh Sampo, injuries kept Ryan Benoit out of the cage for more than one year. He made a triumphant return by knocking out Sergio Pettis in March 2015, but fell short against Ben Nguyen the following November.
He replaces the injured Ray Borg on short notice.
Fredy Serrano -- a 2008 freestyle wrestling Olympian -- entered TUF: "Latin America" as one of Team Fabricio Werdum's best hopes before falling to eventual winner Alejandro Perez in his first bout. He's found more success in UFC itself, knocking out Bentley Syler and stopping Yao Zhikui on an arm injury.
He will give up three inches of height to the 5'5" Benoit.
Serrano isn't as screwed as he would have been against Borg, but he's still in for a rough night. The Colombian is a full decade older than his opponent, who can dish out just as much hurt on the feet and likely stifle Serrano's wrestling attack.
The height discrepancy might be what really does in Serrano because he doesn't set up his strikes or takedowns particularly well. If he attempts to bully his way into range or throw something wild from too far out, Benoit's very well-equipped to punish him.
"Baby Face" brings his UFC record to 2-2 with a mid-round knockout.
Final prediction: Benoit def. Serrano by technical knockout
There you have it.
You've heard from me, now let's hear from you. Who gets it done tomorrow night in Atlanta?