Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will send two of its most elite strikers to duke it out for an interim title this Saturday evening (Dec. 10, 2016) as Max Holloway puts his nine-fight winning streak on the line against former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis.
The two headline UFC 206, live on pay-per-view (PPV) from Toronto’s Air Canada Centre.
The main card will also feature Donald Cerrone vs. Matt Brown in a terrific welterweight showdown, plus Doo Ho Choi stepping up against Cub Swanson, as well as Tim Kennedy’s Octagon return opposite Kelvin Gastelum.
We have a total of seven "Prelims" to set the stage and we already deconstructed the UFC Fight Pass portion (read that analysis here), so let's move on to the remaining four on FOX Sports 1 to see what we’ve got to look forward to.
155 lbs.: Drew Dober (17-7) vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier (8-2)
Since going 1-3, 1 NC in his first five UFC bouts, Dober has rattled off impressive wins over Scott Holtzman and Jason Gonzalez. The former was an upset of a previously undefeated fighter, while the latter saw him knock Gonzalez cold with a brutal flurry. At 5’8", he is an inch shorter than Aubin-Mercier.
Quebec’s Aubin-Mercier fell short against Chad Laprise on the Ultimate Fighter: Nations finale, but showed off his skills with three straight wins. A loss to Carlos Diego Ferreira halted his momentum, although he choked out Thibault Gouti to recuperate in June. Seven of his eight wins have come by submission, six of them by rear-naked choke.
This is a pretty good fight, all things considered. Dober has the solid wrestling and technical striking that Aubin-Mercier needs to prove he can deal with. Luckily for "OAM," Dober isn’t generally a great finisher and lacks the toolset to properly punish Aubin-Mercier’s relentless pursuit of the clinch.
"The Quebec Kid" may not wind up completing as many takedowns as he’d like, but as against Tony Sims, he’ll spend enough time frustrating Dober against the fence and dragging him into awkward positions to take the decision.
Prediction: Aubin-Mercier via unanimous decision
115 lbs.: Valerie Letourneau (8-5) vs. Viviane Pereira (12-0)
"Trouble" didn’t make it through the elimination round on The Ultimate Fighter 18, but fought her way to a title shot with three consecutive UFC victories. After falling short against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, she faced Joanne Calderwood at flyweight and suffered her first (T)KO loss since 2007. Half of her wins have come by form of knockout.
"Sucuri" has dominated the Brazilian scene since her 2012 debut, winning fights from strawweight to bantamweight and earning titles in two different weight classes. When former victim and current flyweight standout Poliana Botelho was forced out due to injury, Pereira stepped in on around six weeks’ notice. She will give up an impressive seven inches of height to Létourneau.
There’s a lot to like about Pereira’s style; she’s an aggressive striker with real power in her hands and a quality ground game to back it up. She could be a player at 115, but she’ll have to overcome an unsuccessful debut to do so.
Why? Seven-inch height disadvantage.
Létourneau is a very skilled boxer with the technique and power to make brutal use of that diference. Unless the Calderwood loss wrecked her confidence, she ought to be able to pick Peteira apart at range and avoid most of the return fire. She takes a decision win behind quality power punches and distance management.
Prediction: Letourneau by unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Misha Cirkunov (12-2) vs. Nikita Krylov (21-4)
Xtreme Couture’s Cirkunov has not tasted defeat since 2012, stopping his last seven opponents. He is 3-0 in the UFC itself with dominant victories over Daniel Jolly, Alex Nicholson, and Ion Cutelaba. Six of his ten finishes have come by submission.
Once seemingly a novelty, Krylov has rebounded from a 1-2 start to his UFC career to become an unexpected contender. He has won five straight since losing to Ovince St. Preux, all by stoppage within two rounds, and most recently head kicked Ed Herman to score one of the year’s better knockouts. He has never gone the distance as a pro, submitting thirteen.
I generally can’t pick Krylov’s fights to save my life, so I’ll fully accept whatever egg hits my face when I pick against him again. Cirkunov is a legitimate blue-chip prospect who not only has a sizable wrestling edge, but already showed his ability to defuse aggressive swarmers in one-sided wins over Nicholson and Cutelaba.
Though Krylov has upside for days, Cirkunov is the sort of patient and crafty grappler that can mercilessly exploit "The Miner’s" technical lapses. Cirkunov earns his fourth UFC victory, surviving the early rush and ultimately wearing Krylov down for the finish.
Prediction: Cirkunov via second-round submission
135 lbs.: Mitch Gagnon (12-3) vs. Matthew Lopez (8-1)
Though Gagnon lost his UFC debut to Bryan Caraway, he walked away with a Fight of the Night bonus and followed that up with four straight wins, three of them by first-round submission. He then fought Renan Barão in the latter’s first fight since losing the title, fighting well but ultimately running out of steam and getting submitted. This will be his first fight since losing to Barao in 2014.
Lopez’s powerful wrestling and grappling skills carried him to seven first-round finishes in his first eight bouts, five of them under the RFA banner. The final win caught Dana White’s eye and sent him to the UFC, where he succumbed to Rani Yahya’s legendary submission prowess. He has four wins by submission, one of them was to strikes.
This looks like it’ll be a lot of fun. Gagnon’s incredibly aggressive on both the feet and the mat, while Lopez is more than happy to oblige in scrambles. I’d ordinarily be hesitant due to Gagnon’s cardio issues, but Lopez slowed down as well against Yahya, likely due to the frenetic pace he pushes.
Lopez is in an odd position wherein he needs that kind of pace to keep up with Gagnon; neither can maintain it, but I’m not sure Lopez can stay competitive at a lower one without getting finished. Gagnon’s experience and physical strength carry him through as he snags a guillotine during a particularly wild scramble.
Prediction: Gagnon by first-round submission
Even without "Cormier vs. Johnson 2," this card has plenty of potential wars to keep you all sated. See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember, too, that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 206 fight card, starting with the Fight Pass "Prelims" matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, and then the remaining undercard balance on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET.