Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight legends Mauricio Rua and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira will clash this Saturday (Aug. 1, 2015) at UFC 190 inside HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Rua has looked very vulnerable in recent fights. He's lost four of his last five bouts and was finished in three of those losses, meaning even his once iron chin has started to crack. If the Brazilian can't get a victory here, he may be at the end of his career.
If Nogueira were to remain healthy for more than a few months a time, he'd likely be on a similar slide to "Shogun." Regardless, the younger Nogueira brother also really need this victory, otherwise he'll be in Rua's current position.
Let's take a look at the keys to victory for both fighters:
Mauricio Rua
Record: 22-10
Key Wins: James Te Huna (UFC Fight Night 38), Lyoto Machida (UFC 113), Forrest Griffin (UFC 134)
Key Losses: Dan Henderson (UFC Fight Night 38), Ovince St. Preux (UFC Fight Night 56), Jon Jones (UFC 128)
Keys to Victory: One of the most infamous knockout artists in 205-pound history, Rua has declined into something of a basic brawler. He's still got some vicious power, but that's a less serious threat without his past technique or sturdy jawline.
On the bright side, "Shogun" has returned to training with the legendary Chute Boxe coach, Rafael Cordeiro. Hopefully, that will reinvigorate his past fire and return him to his Muay Thai roots, as an effective kicking game would be huge opposite the boxer.
Assuming that training with Cordeiro does help, Rua should look to chop down his opponent and wear at his body. While Nogueira's technique has declined like Rua, he is much slower, meaning he will likely be unable to avoid Rua's kicks.
If that is indeed the case -- and Rua's knees can hold up -- then "Shogun" has a more viable path to victory than simply swinging for the fences and hoping his opponent drops first. By digging into his opponent's legs and body with powerful kicks, Rua can wear away his opponent's defenses before coming forward with heavy punches.
VS.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Record: 21-6
Key Wins: Rashad Evans (UFC 156), Tito Ortiz (UFC 140)
Key Losses: Mauricio Rua (Pride Critical Countdown 2005), Phil Davis (UFC Fight Night 24), Ryan Bader (UFC 119)
Keys to Victory: Equally recognized for both his Brazilian jiu-jitsu prowess and boxing ability, Nogueira was a top talent back in the days of Pride FC. Unfortunately, injuries have really plagued him, leaving plenty of questions as to where he stands in the light heavyweight division.
In this bout, Nogueira needs to really rely on his strengths, namely his technical boxing and grappling. If he looks to replicate the wild brawl that was their original clash, he'll likely end up unconscious.
Instead, Nogueira should look to frustrate his opponent by controlling the distance, namely with his jab. Unless Cordeiro really works wonders with Rua, "Shogun" isn't likely to kick very much, meaning that Nogueira can safely work from the outside.
After getting his head snapped back a few times, Rua will surely attempt to close the distance with looping shots. While Nogueira has never been the most dominant wrestler, Rua really throws himself off-balance in search of the knockout.
By ducking under one of those punches, Nogueira should be able to land the takedown. From there, the Brazilian's excellent grappling should allow him to control Rua, if not submit him outright.
Bottom Line: Both men are far off from being contenders at this advanced stage in their careers. Instead, they're fighting to prove they can still compete at this level.
This is especially true for "Shogun." While Nogueira hasn't looked particularly good or been very active, Rua has been actively getting creamed. For a fighter that once thrived in brawls, that's a truly bad sign. Should the Brazilian lose here, he may be in for one those infamous retirement talks.
Alternatively, a win gives Rua a bit of breathing room. He won't immediately convince fans -- the smart ones at least -- that he's back, but he'll at least get another chance to prove himself.
As mentioned, Nogueira is in a better position than his opponent, but a loss drags him to that level. If he's finished, that would be a pair of knockout losses in a row, which is always a bit worrying for a fighter as deep into his career as Nogueira.
However, a win could show that Nogueira hasn't really declined much. After all, his recent losses have been to above average competition. While he hasn't really looked good lately, neither has most of the division. If he beats Rua, he's definitely good enough to compete with plenty of fighters at 205 pounds.
At UFC 190, "Shogun" Rua and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira will go to war in the co-main event. Which man will have his hand raised?