Any Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) title fight is cause for tuning in; however, there's nothing quite like the Heavyweight belt.
Two big men with a track record of jaw-dropping finishes will battle it out in one of combat sports' most fabled locales as the world's leading mixed martial arts (MMA) league makes its return to Mexico City, Mexico, this Saturday (June 13, 2015) for UFC 188.
After almost two years away, reigning "Baddest Man on the Planet" and champion, Cain Velasquez, will face the man who tapped Fedor Emelianenko, interim division kingpin Fabricio Werdum.
Elsewhere on the pay-per-view (PPV) main car, two men who left their former promotions with Lightweight titles will battle it out as Eddie Alvarez looks for his first win inside the Octagon against two-time title challenger Gilbert Melendez. Kelvin Gastelum will also face Nate Marquardt at 185 pounds, while The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Latin America" Featherweight winner Yair Rodriguez takes a massive step up against American Top Team (ATT)-trained prospect Charles Rosa.
It is, by all accounts, a cracking set of fights. Here's how to make some money from them:
UFC 188 Odds For The Undercard:
Henry Cejudo (-1000) vs. Chico Camus (+650)
Drew Dober (-155) vs. Efrain Escudero (+135)
Johnny Case (-380) vs. Francisco Trevino (+315)
Alejandro Perez (-165) vs. Patrick Williams (+145)
Augusto Montano (-155) vs. Cathal Pendred (+135)
Clay Collard (-250) vs. Gabriel Benitez (+210)
Albert Tumenov (-440) vs. Andrew Todhunter (+350)
Thoughts: I can already feel the egg on my face for saying this, but I consider this one of the most opportunity-rich cards in some time. There’s value in Escudero, Williams, and (ugh) Pendred.
Escudero is a top-control specialist who relies on speed to produce takedowns. This approach has consistently failed against powerful fellow grapplers like Jacob Volkmann and "Macaco" Patino, but it should work like a charm against Dober. Dober’s well-rounded, true, but not a finishing threat on the feet and ostensibly someone Escudero can take down.
And if he can take Dober down, he’s worth betting on.
Williams strikes me as the best bet on the card. While he’s never going to reach even C.B. Dollaway levels of success, he’s a strong puncher with a quality wrestling pedigree. After watching Perez get rattled with punches and taken down in both of his fights with Quinonez, that seems like a perfect combination to take out TUF: "Latin America" winner.
Go big on Williams.
Look, I don’t like Pendred and you don’t like Pendred. I still think he’s going to beat "Dodger." The Mexican bruiser’s wrestling is a question mark, especially when he isn’t up against someone he’s five inches taller than. In addition, his striking technique leaves a hell of a lot to be desired. I think Pendred can survive the early onslaught to grind him down, so put a small bet on him.
Worst case, you lose a bit of money and get to see him get his ass kicked.
UFC 188 Odds For The Main Card:
Cain Velasquez (-485) vs. Fabricio Werdum (+385)
Gilbert Melendez (-175) vs. Eddie Alvarez (+155)
Kelvin Gastelum (-440) vs. Nate Marquardt (+350)
Charles Rosa (-230) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+190)
Tecia Torres (-310) vs. Angela Hill (+255)
Thoughts: I still believe in Eddie Alvarez. Though he lost to Donald Cerrone, "Cowboy" is on an absolute rampage at the moment and had quite of bit of length on him. Alvarez is still one of the best boxers in the division and he has some terrific footwork, while Melendez is over-reliant on the winging right hand. Plus, we’ve seen Alvarez handle another fighter from Melendez’s archetype in Michael Chandler, whom he defeated in their second bout. I’m far more confident in Alvarez’s ability to handle a powerful wrestle-boxer than I am in Gil’s ability to handle a mobile striker with good takedown defense. Alvarez is your man.
UFC 188 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Efrain Escudero: Bet $30 to make $40.50
- Single bet -- Patrick Williams: Bet $60 to make $87
- Single bet -- Cathal Pendred: Bet $20 to make $27
- Single bet -- Eddie Alvarez: Bet $30 to make $46.50
Lots of prospects and two fights for which we've been waiting for a long, long time -- sounds like a quality weekend to me.
See you there, Maniacs!