One thing is for sure this weekend: Someone will get kicked real good.
Two Top 5-ranked Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight contenders will put their elite statuses on the line this Saturday (April 18, 2015) when recent title challenger, Lyoto Machida, battles American Kickboxing Academy (AKA) standout Luke Rockhold -- who will put his three-fight finishing streak on the line -- in UFC on FOX 16's main event from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
That's not all.
Also gracing the televised main card is "Jacare" Ronaldo Souza, who will face Chris Camozzi after Yoel Romero's unfortunate removal because of injury. Earlier on FOX's main card, Cub Swanson will face Max Holloway in a clash of top-ranked Featherweight standouts, while UFC Strawweight darling Paige VanZant collides with Felice Herrig.
We looked at UFC on FOX 16's opening "Prelims" bouts on Fight Pass yesterday evening right here. For the remaining "Prelims" balance, which will also air on FOX, just scroll down.
155 lbs.: Jim Miller vs. Beneil Dariush
Following a 1-2 stretch that saw him submitted for the first time in his career, Jim Miller (24-5) went unbeaten in his next four fights, capped off by a submission of rising Hawaiian Yancy Medeiros. In his first main event since his lost to Nate Diaz, Miller faced Donald Cerrone, suffering his first professional knockout loss.
He will give up two inches of height to Beneil Dariush (10-1), who replaces Paul Felder on short notice.
After an impressive submission of Charlie Brenneman in his promotional debut, Dariush suffered his first career setback at the hands of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 13 veteran Ramsey Nijem. He has since won three straight, most recently choking out Daron Cruickshank just one month ago.
He has stopped eight opponents, including six via submission.
This one has a very real chance of being one of the best fights of the night. Both their areas of expertise overlap and, save for Dariush’s slow bout with Carlos Diego Ferreira, neither man has shown any desire to win by decision. The fight will be evenly-matched wherever it goes.
Well, mostly. Miller’s got the better striking and that should be enough.
Wrestling-wise, they should just about break even. Dariush might be the better grappler, but I don’t envision him consistently putting Miller on his back. Expect an entertaining bout that stays on the feet long enough for Miller’s Muay Thai to carry him to victory.
Prediction: Miller via unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Ovince St. Preux vs. Patrick Cummins
A five-fight win streak earned Ovince St. Preux (17-6) his first main event appearance, where he dropped a decision to Ryan Bader in Bangor, Maine. He returned to action three months as a late replacement for Jimi Manuwa against "Shogun" Mauricio Rua, brutalizing the Pride FC legend in less than one minute.
He has finished 13 foes and has not been finished himself in more than five years.
Since Patrick Cummins' (7-1) disastrous Octagon debut against Daniel Cormier, the former wrestling standout has carved out a place for himself at 205 pounds with three straight wins. He was last seen in Dec. 2014, defeating recent TUF: "Brazil" winner Antonio "Cara de Sapato" by decision in hostile territory.
Three of his wins are by form of knockout, another two coming by submission.
"OSP’s" game has advanced quite a bit -- his punches are tighter and his takedown defense seems much improved since the days when he was being rag-dolled by Gegard Mousasi. That said, it was only two fights ago that he was being ground down by Ryan Bader. While Cummins lacks "Darth’s" dangerous power, he has the cardio to maintain a relentless takedown assault. Barring a big left hand from OSP in the early going (a distinct possibility) "Durkin" should be able to control the former Tennessee Volunteer on the mat.
St. Preux’s takedown defense is ever-improving and he has a sizeable advantage on the feet. Still, Cummins’ wrestling prowess ought to carry the day. Decision win for the former coffee barista.
Prediction: Cummins via unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Corey Anderson vs. Gian Villante
Corey Anderson (5-0) took home victory in TUF 19's Light Heavyweight tournament with a 61-second destruction of Matt Van Buren at the Finale. He was scheduled to face Villante at UFC 181 in Dec. 2014, only for injury to pit him against Middleweight Justin Jones in a bout he won by decision.
Three of his wins are by form of knockout, each in the first round.
Gian Villante (12-5) opened his Strikeforce career 0-2, but managed to up his promotional record to above .500 before it folded. He’s since gone 2-2 in UFC, most recently edging Sean O’Connell in New Zealand.
The former Chris Weidman training partner will give up an inch of height and four years of youth to Anderson.
It’s hard to characterize Villante’s ZUFFA run as anything but disappointing. This is a guy who was losing to Cody Donovan before being saved by the fact that Donovan has the worst chin in the history of the division. His wrestling pedigree hasn’t really shown itself and, against a very capable wrestler in Anderson, I don’t envision him having much success dictating position.
On the feet, neither man is outstanding, but I’d still favor Anderson. Expect him to control the fight wherever it goes, outclassing Villante on the feet and the mat.
Prediction: Anderson via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Takeya Mizugaki vs. Aljamain Sterling
Unable to put two straight wins together in nine fights from 2009 to 2012, Takeya Mizugaki (20-8-2) finally got over the hump, stringing together five consecutive wins. In Sept. 2014, however, his momentum came to a screeching halt courtesy of former champ Dominick Cruz, who dispatched the Japanese veteran in just 61 seconds.
He is an injury replacement for Manny Gamburyan, who pulled out early in February.
Aljamain Sterling (10-0) -- also known as the "Funk Master" -- enjoyed a successful 2014 campaign, defeating Cody Gibson and Hugo Viana in his first two UFC appearances. He was scheduled for a third bout, this one against future "Upset of the Year" contender Frankie Saenz, but injury scrapped the bout soon before fight night.
He has stopped six opponents, four by rear-naked choke.
Sterling is a legitimate blue-chip prospect. He’s a great wrestler with a solid striking game to go along with it and the Brazilian jiu-jitsu prowess to turn his takedowns into fight-ending grappling sequences. Best of all, he’s fighting out of the same camp that turned Chris Weidman into a champion.
The thing is, Mizugaki can give anyone outside the Top 5 rankings pure hell.
The Japanese veteran has vastly improved his offensive and defensive wrestling and tightened up his striking. Unless you’re Cruz or a Team Alpha Male member, odds are his opponent will have to duke it out with him and that generally ends poorly. While Sterling has a very real chance to make his way to the summit of the Bantamweight division, Mizugaki is too much, too soon.
Mizugaki edges the striking battle and denies enough takedowns to earn a close decision.
Prediction: Mizugaki via unanimous decision
Losing Romero may have been a bummer, but Lyoto Machida vs. Luke Rockhold and Cub Swanson vs. Holloway both have the potential to be classics.
I, for one, will be watching. Will you?