Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) belts have been rather slippery recently, and Rafael Dos Anjos is out to buck the trend.
This Saturday night (Dec. 19, 2015) inside Amway Center in Orlando, Fla., the Lightweight champion will put his 155-pound title on the line for the first time against former foe Donald Cerrone -- who has beaten eight opponents since losing to "RDA" in 2013 -- in the main event of UFC on FOX 17.
Elsewhere on the FOX Sports-televised card, ex-Heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos finally takes on former K-1 kickboxing superstar Alistair Overeem three years after they were first booked, while Michael Johnson looks to spoil Nate Diaz's Octagon return.
That's not all.
We've still got six undercard "Prelims" fights to examine, all on FOX Sports 1 (check out the first three on Fight Pass right here), so let's not waste time.
145 lbs.: Charles Oliveira vs. Myles Jury
Consecutive losses to Cub Swanson and Frankie Edgar gave way to a four-fight win streak for Charles Oliveira (20-5), capped off by a guillotine finish of Nik Lentz. This set up "do Bronx" for a pivotal contender fight with Max Holloway, where the Brazilian unfortunately suffered a freak esophagus injury in the second minute.
He has submitted 12 opponents and knocked out six.
Though he lost to Al Iaquinta on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 15, Myles Jury (15-1) began his UFC career with six straight wins, becoming the first man to ever stop Takanori Gomi with strikes in the process. In his biggest fight to date, he turned in a tepid performance against Donald Cerrone in January for his first-ever professional loss.
This will mark his Featherweight debut.
I’ve been quite impressed by Oliveira’s increasing ability to bring things to the ground in recent fights. And even though he’s likely well outclassed on the feet, odds are good this is going to wind up on the mat whether Jury wants it to or not. Once there, "Fury Jiu-Jitsu" isn’t going to help him.
This is, of course, all predicated on Oliveira making weight, which he has struggled with in the past. It’s already a close fight considering Jury’s wrestling and striking advantages without Oliveira coming in drained. Jury will have his own weight cut to negotiate, though, so it’s probably best to just focus on the technical side of things.
The Brazilian is just too good a grappler. Expect "do Bronx" to lock up a choke sometime in the first round.
Prediction: Oliveira via first-round submission
185 lbs.: C.B. Dollaway vs. Nate Marquardt
Were it not for a hilariously bad decision against Tim Boetsch, C.B. Dollaway (15-7) would have entered his fight with Lyoto Machida on a five-fight win streak. In anticlimactic fashion, Dollaway fell to a body kick in 62 seconds, then lost a decision to Michael Bisping despite dropping the Englishman early.
He stands two inches taller than Nate Marquardt (33-15-2) at 6’2."
After seemingly finding new life at 170 pounds and winning the Strikeforce title, "The Great" went on to lose his belt to Tarec Saffiedine and suffer knockout defeats to Jake Ellenberger and Hector Lombard in the Octagon. He returned to 185 pounds with a win over James Te-Huna, but came up short against Brad Tavares and Kelvin Gastelum.
He has submitted 16 opponents and knocked out another nine.
It’s become abundantly clear at this point that Marquardt’s decline wasn’t simply a result of cutting too much weight to fight at 170 pounds. "The Great" looked slow and fragile in his bouts with Tavares and Gastelum, and worse, appeared completely burnt out in the latter.
Dollaway -- a big wrestler with a solid punch -- would have troubled Marquardt at any point in his career. Saturday, he’s going to smash the hell out of him.
"The Doberman" left hook has some real power behind it and Marquardt is no longer capable out keeping him at bay or forcing a ground exchange. Dollaway knocks him out sometime in the first round.
Prediction: Dollaway via first-round technical knockout
135 lbs.: Sarah Kaufman vs. Valentina Shevchenko
After soundly thrashing Leslie Smith for her first-ever UFC victory, Sarah Kaufman (17-3) stepped into the cage for a third bout with rival Alexis Davis, whom she had beaten twice before. This time around, Kaufman fell victim to a second-round armbar after starting strong.
She has scored 10 professional knockouts, though only one in her last 13 fights.
Valentina Shevchenko (9-1) -- who originally debuted in MMA at the age of 15 -- has racked up more than 50 wins in kickboxing and won world titles in Muay Thai. In her last MMA bout, she outclassed former Strikeforce competitor Jan Finney for her fourth-straight victory.
She enters as a late replacement for injured Dutch striker Germaine de Randamie.
Her level of competition may not be worth writing home about, but Shevchenko’s striking prowess is absolutely legit. She puts together combinations extremely well and has some very impressive hand speed (not to mention slick trips from the clinch from her Muay Thai training). If she had more time to prepare, she’d have a real shot at the upset.
As is, she’ll likely give Kaufman some fits early, but she’s going to struggle with the veteran’s pace.
Kaufman’s sheer volume, which she will ideally use in conjunction with regular takedown attempts, should carry her to victory. The Canadian takes over in the second and third rounds for a decision win.
Prediction: Kaufman via unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Tamdan McCrory vs. Josh Samman
After an early 3-3 run in UFC, Tamdan McCrory (13-3) left the sport for five years before returning as a Middleweight in the Bellator cage. Once there, he reeled off a pair of impressive stoppages in a combined 1:27 to earn another crack at UFC.
He has just one decision win, knocking out seven and submitting another five.
As Team Jones’ second pick, Josh Samman (11-2) bashed his way to the semifinals of TUF 17 before falling onto the tracks of the Kelvin Gastelum train. He’s since won three straight in UFC, all via stoppage, and has won nine of his last 10 overall.
He has no decision wins since his debut and has scored seven knockouts.
Odds are this will be the most entertaining fight of the "Prelims" and has a very real shot at being "Fight of the Night." Both of these men are powerful, durable and unbelievably game.
Though no outcome would surprise me, I’m leaning toward Samman’s size and power.
Simply put, when/if these guys slug it out, Samman’s will be the more telling blows. Neither man has ever been stopped with strikes, so anticipate a very fun 15 minutes of violence with Samman’s hand raised at the end.
Prediction: Samman via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Nik Lentz vs. Danny Castillo
After a rough end to his Lightweight run, Nik Lentz (25-7-2) established himself as a Featherweight contender with four wins in his first five fights there. In May, he got a chance at revenge against Charles Oliveira, but ultimately tapped to a guillotine after a pair of back-and-forth rounds.
This will be his first fight at 155 pounds since Jan. 2012.
Danny Castillo (17-9) made the jump from World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) to UFC successfully, winning seven of his first 10 fights in the promotion. At present, however, he is riding a three-fight losing streak courtesy of Tony Ferguson, Paul Felder and Jim Miller.
He has stopped 10 opponents, six by knockout.
While Castillo is the bigger man and the bigger puncher, I’m not sure he has quite enough oomph to knockout Lentz nor enough of a wrestling edge to put him on his back. There’s a good chance this fight takes place almost entirely in the clinch, where Lentz’s volume ought to pay dividends.
Castillo, despite his wrestling and power, has a habit of just not doing enough in fights. Lentz has no such issue. The durable Minnesotan grinds his way to a narrow decision win.
Prediction: Lentz via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Cole Miller vs. Jim Alers
Wins over Andy Ogle and Sam Sicila set up Cole Miller (21-9) for a grudge match with Conor McGregor, which wound up falling apart because of injury. He eventually faced Max Holloway in February and, though he came up short, became the only one of Holloway’s last seven opponents to take him the distance.
He stands four inches taller than Jim Alers (13-2) at 5’9."
Alers overcame a knockdown to win his UFC victory against Alan Omer, extending his winning streak to nine. His defense failed him once again against Chas Skelly, who didn’t give "The Beast" a chance to recover and ultimately stopped him at the very end of the second round.
He has stopped 11 opponents, nine via submission.
Alers is a very, very good fighter with one very, very big problem. Though "The Beast" is a physical powerhouse and a skilled-enough grappler to break even with Chas Skelly for a time, neither his striking defense nor his durability are up to snuff. Miller -- who as stated will have a considerable length advantage, can do some damage with his straight right and ought to be capable enough off his back to shut down Alers’ groundwork.
Expect a competitive scrap, with Alers edging the first round with his wrestling before getting dropped and submitted in the second.
Prediction: Miller def. Alers by second-round submission
UFC on FOX 17 features a Lightweight title fight, Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem and the return of bird-flipping firebrand Nate Diaz. What else could you possibly ask of a free card?
See you Saturday, Maniacs!
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC on FOX 17 fight card on fight night, starting with the Fight Pass "Prelims" matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 3:30 p.m. ET, and then the remaining undercard balance on FOX Sports 1 at 5 p.m. ET, before the FOX main card start time at 8 p.m. ET.