Legendary knockout artist and multiple division champion, Dan Henderson, is set to collide with long-time rival, Vitor Belfort, for a third time this Saturday (Nov. 7, 2015) at UFC Fight Night 77 inside Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
"Hendo" is a crafty old bastard. There's been multiple times in the 45-year-old's career where it appears blatantly obvious that he's slowing down, but Henderson will nevertheless pull off a big victory or put forth a strong enough performance to buy himself some more time.
Such was the case in Henderson's last performance, as he avoided a three-fight losing streak by flattening Tim Boetsch inside of 30 seconds. Now, he looks to avenge his 2013 loss to Belfort, who was in the prime of his Testosterone Replacement Therapy (TRT)-fueled head-kicking rampage when he savaged Henderson.
Let's take a closer look at the legend's current skill set:
Striking
Henderson is one of the most effective punchers in the sport. His strategy is not complex; in fact, it's known by even the most casual mixed martial arts (MMA) fan, but he's never the less knocked out 15 men.
Because of the way Henderson stands and distributes his weight, he's really only able to throw his right hand with any power. Luckily, Henderson's right hand is truly a fantastic weapon, as it's responsible for each of his knockout victories.
The "H-Bomb" is a perfect description.
As mentioned, Henderson's lead hand is not very potent. Unless his opponent bounces into a jab or hook -- as Rashad Evans did several years ago -- it's not likely to do any real damage. However, Henderson will use his left hand to measure the distance, occupy his opponent's lead hand, and get him to circle into the overhand right.
In addition, Henderson commonly turns to his most frequent set up for the overhand right. After using an inside low kick to off-balance his opponent and keep him in place, Henderson will fire off his trademark "H-Bomb" or a powerful cross, depending on where the hole in his opponent's guard lies. Not only does the kick throw off his opponent's movement, but it serves as a wind up step for Henderson's power punch.
As most everyone is aware, this is the exact set up that separated Michael Bisping from his senses.
Finally, Henderson will look to his right hand to halt his opponent's forward movement and counter his combinations. By this point, most fighters are smart enough not to keep their head up high as they chase down Henderson, but fear of the overhand didn't stop Boetsch from stumbling directly into Henderson's range.
It probably should have though.
Since all of Henderson's meaningful offense comes from his right hand, he's become rather predictable. Since he no longer can rely on his offensive wrestling ability (or chooses not to), Henderson's opponents know precisely what to expect.
Worse still, Henderson recently adopted strategy of simply ducking his head, extending his left hand, and trying to line up the right hand without even the slightest bit of subtlety. This has yet to work out well for him, as Belfort countered his hunched posture with a nasty uppercut that literally lifted Henderson from his feet, and Gegard Mousasi used his own overhand right in the form of a cross counter to stun Henderson.
Wrestling
Unfortunately, time has seriously taken its toll on Henderson's wrestling ability. Though he's a former Olympian, Henderson last represented the United States in the Olympics back in 1996. In his early career, Henderson's Greco-Roman ability carried him past numerous opponents, but that's no longer a viable strategy.
In the last three years, Henderson has scored just a single takedown, and that came from when Lyoto Machida slipped in the clinch.
Still, Henderson can create offense from his wrestling skill. In his most recent victory over "Shogun" Rua, Henderson was getting picked apart on his feet for most of the first two rounds. He looked to switch it up and take down the Brazilian in the third from the clinch, but was unable. However, a trip attempt was enough to take Rua's hands out of position, and "Hendo" capitalized by absolutely destroying his opponent's nose with a right hand on the break.
The reason that Henderson no longer relies on his wrestling seems obvious to me. Wrestling is one of the most brutal aspects of training, and it definitely puts a large toll on the body. At Henderson's age, he can't really afford to wear himself out or suffer any serious injuries. Plus, he probably doesn't have the gas tank to win any grueling wars of attrition in the clinch at this point, so it doesn't make much sense for him to attempt that strategy.
Defensively, it's tough to see where Henderson's wrestling ability currently stands. The most recent man to apply a takedown-heavy strategy mauled him, but Daniel Cormier is certainly not an average wrestler.
Looking a bit further back, Henderson did a nice job defending Evans' attempts to drag him to the mat. When Evans would look for his usual double-leg takedown, Henderson would work for underhooks and get the fight back into the clinch. From there, his clinch expertise was enough to get his back off the fence and separate from Evans.
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
Frankly, Henderson has never been a submission fighter. In nearly 20 years of professional fighting, Henderson has scored just one submission victory via guillotine back in 1997.
So, Belfort probably doesn't have to worry about getting tapped out on Saturday.
On the bright side, Henderson is a stubborn man who's quite difficult to submit. Even at this point in his career, it took Cormier nearly the entire 15 minutes to break through Henderson's defenses despite clearly being the superior wrestler, grappler and athlete.
On the whole, Henderson's submission defense comes from mental toughness. Most submissions in MMA come from a fighter accepting that he's beaten, whereas Henderson never stops working toward the win.
Best Chance For Success
As mentioned, Henderson only really has one strategy at this point. Put in words, it's something like, "shuffle, shuffle, H-Bomb."
However, this is one fight where Henderson could really benefit from just a small bit of strategy. Assuming Belfort looks the same as he did opposite Chris Weidman -- if "The Phenom" shows up to the weigh ins on Friday and looks like he's in his 2013 juiced up form, "Hendo" is most likely screwed no matter what -- then Henderson needs to stay patient.
If Henderson can avoid getting clipped and finished early, he can draw this fight out and make Belfort work. While neither man are in their primes, Henderson has always been the more durable and mentally tougher fighter. Belfort, on the other hand, completely folded the second Weidman took him down.
It's a strange situation, but a war of attrition really does favor the 45-year-old.
Will Dan Henderson avenge his knockout loss to Belfort or can "The Phenom" return to his winning ways?