Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back with a mixed martial arts (MMA) card most fans won't be watching in real time because it A) requires you to be a subscriber to the UFC Fight Pass digital network and B) demands you wake up at 4:30 a.m. ET for its very first fight.
UFC Fight? Pass.
That said, we do have a handful of interesting match ups on the main card, so your old pal Nostradumbass is going to put down his turkey leftovers and take a look at all four pairings, which take place tomorrow (Sat., Nov. 28, 2015) from inside Olympic Gymnastics Arena in Seoul, South Korea.
If you want to see what's doing on the UFC Fight Night 79 "Prelims," those predictions can be found here and here.
UFC "Seoul" odds and betting lines are here.
Now then, let's get down to business and try to see how the last-minute changes -- which are all too common these days -- will affect the main card showdown.
170 lbs.: Ben "Smooth" Henderson (22-5) vs. Jorge "Gamebred" Masvidal (29-9)
Nostradumbass predicts: Jorge Masvidal is the kind of fighter who should be able to dispose of Ben Henderson. After all, he's been in the fight game for more than a decade, has nearly 40 pro bouts to his credit (and countless backyard brawls), and can stand and bang with the best of them.
Wrestling and submissions are above average, but grossly underrated.
Why that hasn't translated into a serious title run remains a mystery. I would assume his fight I.Q. and inability to commit to a division has something to do with it. "Gamebred" is coming off a scintillating knockout win over brittle Brazilian Cezar Ferreira, but he still wins more fights by way of decision than by finish.
Ben Henderson is not the kind of fighter you want to bring to a judges' party; however, he did get a taste of his own medicine against Donald Cerrone. "Smooth" is also an outstanding fighter with top marks in every skill, who does a better job than most when translating that into Octagon wins.
He's also faced -- and defeated -- much tougher opponents than his "Seoul" counterpart.
I still think he subconsciously gave that arm to Anthony Pettis at UFC 164 and getting knocked out by Rafael dos Anjos felt like a big deal at the time, until "RDA" went and dropped the championship curtain on "Showtime." What does that mean for the UFC Fight Night 79 main event?
Expect the same two fighters you've been seeing since day one (albeit a bit heavier), so it's hard to imagine a fight that doesn't go the distance -- and doesn't end with Henderson sweeping the cards on the strength of his busy work.
Final prediction: Henderson def. Masvidal via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim (20-3-1) vs. Dominic "Sho Nuff" Waters (9-3)
Nostradumbass predicts: Dong Hyun Kim was pretty much written off when Tyron Woodley jaw-jacked him in Macau, which is a shame, because "Stun Gun" was guilty of fighting a stupid fight as opposed to be "exposed" as middling tomato can.
A point he proved by choking out Josh Burkman at UFC 187.
Kim likely fell in love with his striking following back-to-back knockout wins over Erick Silva and John Hathaway, even though he found his way into the upper echelon of the division by taking opponents down and grinding them into dust. I would expect a similar strategy here, because who wants to lose in front of a partisan crown?
That's not to suggest Dominic Waters would drown him in the stand up.
The one fight we saw from "Sho Nuff" after his stellar run on the local circuit was a convincing unanimous decision loss to George Sullivan. Octagon jitters? Perhaps, but to go from a 34-yer-old regional import to the No. 7 ranked fight in the division is a pretty tall order.
I'm not expecting surprises.
Kim will play it safe and turn this into WrestleMania. Waters has never been finished and I don't anticipate that changing here, but I just can't see where he wins this fight outside of a flash knockout during a wild exchange.
Final prediction: Kim def. Waters via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Yoshihiro "Sexyama" Akiyama (14-5) vs. Alberto "Soldier of God" Mina (11-0)
Nostradumbass predicts: Yoshihiro Akiyama is sexy, everybody loves him, it's blasphemy to pick against him, and blabbity-freakin-blah. I'm just as bewitched by the judoka as the rest of the world, but I'm don't pick fights according to sex appeal.
Though I won't make any of those same promises for this card.
Akiyama is 40 years old and has competed just once across a span of nearly four years. His victory during said span came over the since-departed Amir Sadollah and not much has changed since then. His age and layoff will undoubtedly compound his conditioning issues and outside of a few flashy hip tosses, I'm not expecting much on Saturday.
Alberto Mina, on the other hand...
The "Soldier of God" -- who may have to explain that nickname to Yoel Romero -- hasn't exactly been on fire himself, competing roughly once per year since 2006. His lone fight under the ZUFFA banner came against a fighter with a face I don't recognize and a name I can't pronounce, so there's that.
Why am I picking him?
Because it's 2015 and Akiyama is more celebrity now than he is fighter. Whether his shoddy defense gets him clipped in the opening minute or after both fighters empty their tanks in round two, I do believe "Sexyama" is going down. 33 versus 40 is not separated by an uncrossable chasm in other aspects of life like dating or co-ed softball, but MMA years are like dog years.
Especially with USADA lurking around every corner.
Final prediction: Mina def. Akiyama via technical knockout
145 lbs.: Doo Ho "Korean Super Boy" Choi (12-1) vs. Sam Sicilia (15-5)
Nostradumbass predicts: Doo Ho Choi is being touted as one of the next big things at featherweight, though I'm always weary of such labels when the fallen competition resides overseas and far away from inquiring minds (like me).
Probably so we don't see him laying waste to guys like Kosuke Umeda, who is 43 years old and sports a record of 13-16-3.
That said, winning five straight fights by way of knockout is impressive, even if it comes against less-than-stellar competition. The once-beaten "Korean Super Boy" gets a stiff test for his sophomore effort, if not in ranking then in durability.
Sam Sicilia is a capable but unspectacular fighter who recently won back-to-back fights for the first time since 2012 and his 5-4 record inside the Octagon won't be winning him any year-end awards. Regardless, he's a dangerous puncher with serviceable ground skills and exactly the kind of opponent who can spoil a homecoming.
I just don't think his power is going to be enough.
Probably because the kill shot only works if you actually land it, and from what I've seen of Choi, he's not the kind of striker who likes to stay put or leave his head on the center line. Sicilia will pursue and throw with bad intentions, and may even land the occasional takedown, but he's going to be whack-a-mole'd from bell-to-bell.
Final prediction: Choi def. Sicilia via unanimous decision
That's a wrap.
You've heard my picks, now let's hear yours. Who gets it done tomorrow in Seoul?