Hey, remember when UFC President Dana White said Anderson Silva vs. Nick Diaz was a dumb idea and would never happen? We can file that away next to "pay-per-view (PPV) price hike is a one-time thing" as we kick off a curious 2015 fight campaign.
I'll try to keep my bitching to a minimum because let's face it, no matter how ridiculous this fight is from a matchmaking perspective, it serves as a conduit for the return of two of the biggest stars in mixed martial arts (MMA) -- albeit for entirely different reasons.
And whether it ends in the first round or the fifth, the UFC 183: "Silva vs. Diaz" headliner is going to be fun to watch.
So too, should a handful of main card bouts, which take place this Saturday night (Jan. 31, 2015) inside the MGM Grand Garden in Las Vegas, Nevada. Yes, I'm looking at you Joe Lauzon, and your ridiculous list of post-fight bonuses, something Al Iaquinta will be searching for when he throws heavy leather in "Sin City."
That's not all.
In the only PPV match up that carries serious title implications, "Chosen" welterweight wunderkind Tyron Woodley will be asked to face off against the unlikeliest of contenders in former Ultimate Fighter (TUF) middleweight Kelvin Gastelum, who is making a career out of busting the bookies.
All that, and so much more.
Shall we?
185 lbs.: Anderson "The Spider" Silva (33-6) vs. Nick Diaz (26-9)
Nostradumbass predicts: It's interesting to see Anderson Silva so revered in the twilight of his career, especially considering the old days. You know, when UFC President Dana White referred to him as a "jackass" and an "embarrassing" headliner.
He even threatened to cut him.
Then there was the time when fans booed him at the UFC 126 weigh ins -- and cheered for Vitor Belfort!
Ha!
Once again, the Brazilian enters a PPV headliner with all kinds of baggage. In addition to the ghosts of Chris Weidman, some folks are giving Nick Diaz a chance in this (cough) "super fight" because Andy is pushing 40 and perhaps no longer sporting the same iron jaw.
Yeah, no.
I like Nick Diaz and think he's a talented fighter who's fun to watch. But this idea that he's in the same class as Silva based on his unorthodox striking and rat-tat-tat offense is problematic. Not just because his defense is shaky, or that he loves to push forward in a bout that pairs him with the greatest counter-puncher in history.
We're talking about a welterweight who once fought at 160 pounds, trying to throw hands with a middleweight who knocked out -- and thoroughly embarrassed -- three venerable light heavyweights.
I'm not sure a combatant with a frame like Diaz -- even with his clinch game -- can escape the death Plum. Yes, the same one that stole Rich Franklin's soul. And if you're worried about Silva kicking with that surgically-repaired leg, just watch this video.
With that in mind, let's consider some of the past arguments...
Dan Henderson is too powerful.
Strangled into submission.
Vitor Belfort is too fast.
KTFO.
Chael Sonnen will dump-and-hump his way to the cards.
Knee to the solar plexus.
Whatever argument Nick Diaz fans are making for this fight is nothing we haven't already heard. My favorite thus far has been the Robbie Lawler knockout. If we have to use fights that are a decade old to make our predictions, then let's also bring up losses to Joe Riggs and Jeremy Jackson.
Silva has 14 finishes in 16 UFC wins. Let that sink in for a moment. And as we learned with Dan Henderson, chins don't last forever. I have a feeling that a boxing match in the opening rounds will slowly-but-surely transition to a Muay Thai clinic.
That's bad news for the 209.
Diaz, who made a name for himself by taking out the trash in Strikeforce, hasn't won a fight in three years and that was over a bloated potato named BJ Penn, who was already long past his expiration date. There was a reason Dana White originally said this match up didn't make any sense.
Final prediction: Silva def. Diaz via technical knockout
170 lbs.: Tyron "The Chosen One" Woodley (14-3) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (10-0)
Nostradumbass predicts: Every time Kelvin Gastelum competes, I find myself writing, Yeah, he beat Fighter A, but he's never going to beat Fighter B. And each time he makes me look dumber than I already am. There comes a point when you have to recognize that yeah, he's that good.
Good enough to beat Tyron Woodley?
That could depend on which "Chosen One" shows up in Vegas.
If we get the guy who killed Josh Koscheck and kicked Carlos Condit into an injury timeout, Gastelum is in trouble. But if we get the same fighter who laid an egg against Rory MacDonald -- and was put out to pasture by Nate Marquardt -- then he's going down.
Gastelum, who likely has the superior cardio, only needs to win two out of three rounds to (once again) upset the welterweight apple cart. And he's already got big-game experience, turning away 170-pound stalwarts Jake Ellenberger and Rick Story.
Don't expect him to be rattled.
The TUF 17 champ won't be able to take his opponent down -- a decorated collegiate wrestler -- but he doesn't have to. If he can keep the pressure on and stuff him into the phone booth, Gastelum may expose Woodley's inability to adjust on the fly.
That's assuming he doesn't get KTFO by a "Chosen" right hand.
Final prediction: Gastelum def. Woodley via split decision
155 lbs.: "Raging" Al Iaquinta (10-3-1) vs. Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon (24-9)
Nostradumbass predicts: Al Iaquinta had a less-than-memorable start to his UFC career. After getting choked out by Michael Chiesa in the TUF 15 Finale, he scored three ho-hum decisions before once again tapping, this time to Mitch Clarke.
Two knockout wins and suddenly he's the second coming?
Ross Pearson isn't ranked in the top 10 and Rodrigo Damm isn't ranked in the top 100, so let's slow down with all the praise. I do believe he's improved dramatically since his time on the combat sports reality show and his hands have always been dangerous.
But every time someone underestimates Joe Lauzon's stand up, they end up on their ass.
Remember when Melvin Guillard was too fast? Too strong? Popped, dropped, and tapped like a fresh keg of Franziskaner. Lauzon fought way below his potential in losses to Jim Miller and Michael Johnson, prompting some pundits to wonder if he was on the decline, but I'm not penning his eulogy just yet.
Not with that kind of ground game.
Admittedly, It's going to be difficult to get Iaquinta to the mat, so there will be some action on the feet. While it's not the ideal scenario, it is a necessary evil and I believe "J-Lau" is good enough there to keep him in the game, until some dirty in-fighting takes things south in "Sin City."
From there, it's academic.
Final prediction: Lauzon def. Iaquinta via submission
185 lbs.: Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch (18-7) vs. Thales Leites (24-4)
Nostradumbass predicts: It's so much easier to be critical of a fighter when you know they're a douchebag outside the cage. To his credit, Tim Boetsch is a great guy, a solid family man, and the type of brute you want to have at your Sunday barbecue.
Unfortunately, he's not a very good martial artist.
What got him to the dance -- and continues to keep him there -- is the fact that he hits like a cement truck. He's about as durable as one too, so he can do that Homer Simpson/Drederick Tatum thing where he lets guys whale on him until they're exhausted, then land the killing blow.
See Okami, Yushin.
If he was fighting the UFC 97 version of Thales Leites, I would have him all day. But the Brazilian has killed and eaten whoever that imposter was and is now riding a seven-fight winning streak. That includes back-to-back wins by devastating knockout.
And outside of wrecking Brad Tavares, "The Barbarian" has looked dreadful over the past two years.
I expect Boetsch to come out and sling heavy leather. If he can't find his range or starts taking too much abuse, he'll likely fall back on his wrestling, which is probably the last place you want to be against a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with 13 wins by way of tap, nap, or snap.
Sorry, Timbo.
Final prediction: Leites def. Boetsch via submission
170 lbs.: Thiago "Pitbull" Alves (20-9) vs. Jordan "Young Gun" Mein (29-9)
Nostradumbass predicts: I think we'll all agree that Thiago Alves has not been the same fighter since his 2009 loss to Georges St. Pierre. Prior to that demoralizing, five-round defeat to "Rush," the Brazilian was 9-2 with seven knockouts. Since then, he's just 3-3 -- with zero knockouts -- and can't seem to stay healthy.
That explains why Alves has only competed once over the last two years. The good news is, ring rust doesn't seem to be an issue with "Pitbull," based on his three-round drubbing of Seth Baczynski last April. That fight was representative of what to expect from the former division No. 1 contender.
Sound fundamentals coupled with scary power.
That should make this an interesting battle, as Jordan Mein can give as good as he gets. "Young Guns" holds technical knockout wins over Dan Miller and Mike Pyle under the ZUFFA banner and has a staggering 23 finishes in 29 career wins.
Not bad for just 25-years-old.
Assuming we get the same Alves we saw against Baczynski -- or better -- I have a hard time picking against him. Mein has been the more active fighter and holds an edge in experience, but he just hasn't faced the same level of competition that "Pitbull" has.
Unless you count his Matt Brown fight, in which "Young Guns" was finished.
Final prediction: Alves def. Mein via unanimous decision
That's a wrap.
For previews and predictions on the preliminary card fights click here and here. To see all the odds and betting lines for UFC 183 click here and remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and coverage of "Silva vs. Diaz."
What do you think? Now it's your turn ... let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for tomorrow night's event.