Former Strikeforce welterweight kingpin, Nick Diaz, takes on former longtime middleweight roost-ruler, Anderson Silva, this Saturday night (Jan. 31, 2015) at UFC 183 inside the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Diaz moves the needle.
Despite the fact that the Stockton-representative hasn't officially won a fight since 2011 and has not even fought above welterweight since 2009, Diaz is nonetheless set to face off against one of the greatest fighters of all time, Anderson Silva.
The odds are stacked against him, to say the least.
Still, Diaz has overcome wild odds before and is more than game enough to take the fight to "The Spider." Plus, he has a certain history with one Robbie Lawler -- that UFC welterweight champion guy -- that could be brought back up, but only if Diaz takes out his upcoming foe.
Let's find out if Diaz has the necessary skills.
Striking
Nick Diaz has a style uniquely his own, with the sole exception of his brother, Nate Diaz. Honed by Richard Perez, Diaz is one of the most effective, and flawed, high-volume boxers in the entire sport.
Above all else, Diaz is a constant aggressor. He pursues his opponent from the onset of each bout and does not stop until the fight is over. He's not the best at cutting off the cage, but Diaz will walk down his opponent indefinitely.
As the Southpaw moves towards his opponent, he's constantly either probing forward with his hands or shooting out jabs, which he'll commonly double or triple up. This allows Diaz to constantly know how far away his opponent is, and whether he can extend his combination. Before Diaz can attack with his looping hooks, he commonly follows up his jabs with a crisp straight left.
Diaz does his best work when his opponent is trapped against the cage. Without the ability to move away from Diaz, his foe is forced to either exchange with the iron-chinned boxer or cover up and look to defend. In either case, his foe is destined to eventually come out on the losing side of that battle.
When his foe is trapped against the cage, Diaz clobbers him with constants hooks. As he does this, Diaz mixes up the tempo of his punches, throwing some without much behind it while really digging into other shots. Often, Diaz chooses to rip his heavier hooks to his opponent's body, which can quickly sap their energy and will to fight.
Diaz's ability to maintain this heavy pressure and high volume of strikes is obviously critical to his success. Otherwise, his opponents would simply play a defensive game and wait for him to slow down. However, Diaz's insane conditioning training -- which includes competing in triathlons -- allows him to keep a torrid pace at all times.
When combined with heavy body shots, this allows Diaz to quickly take control of fights once he starts landing.
Diaz does a couple things very well when he's punishing an opponent against the fence. For example, Diaz is often grabbing one of his opponent's hands or pushing on his wrist as Diaz delivers punches with his free hand. By doing this, Diaz not only keeps his opponent pushed into the fence, but he also makes it easier for himself to recognize his opponent's next action. His foe only has one hand left to throw punches with, and any attempts at a takedown would be pretty obvious.
Additionally, Diaz often grinds his forehead into his opponent's jaw. This allows him to, again, keep his opponent trapped, but it also keeps his face relatively out of harm's way. However, Diaz can still land his own hard shots to the body.
Finally, it's pretty common for Diaz's opponents to start to shell up under his relentless offense. Then, they'll explode into a single strike, hoping to separate Diaz from his consciousness. Sometimes, such as in the Paul Daley bout, it lands cleanly, but it often ends up getting countered by Diaz's lead hook.
As mentioned, the "Stockton Slap" style of boxing has a number of flaws. For the most part, they all revolve around the fact that Diaz is quite flat-footed and without any real range tools.
In short, that means Diaz is pretty ineffectual from any distance except his own. When fighters continuously circle, Diaz has a very difficult time keeping up. In addition, any kicks his opponent throws will probably go unanswered, as the Cesar Gracie-trained fighter does not have anything to return with.
Finally, Diaz is especially vulnerable to low kicks. His foot is often pointed inwards, which means it's very easy to make his knee buckle with kicks. Not only does that seriously hurt, it can further limit his movement and damage his leg very quickly. Worse still, it often breaks his stance, forcing Diaz to reset as his opponent can easily move away.
Wrestling
Diaz's wrestling is far and away the least developed aspect of his game. Overall, it's quite clear that Diaz spends a majority of time working on his boxing and jiu-jitsu. Plus, Diaz is not a particularly strong fighter -- much of his time goes into cardio -- which has an adverse effect on his wrestling.
On the other hand, Diaz spends such a small amount of time actually looking for takedowns that it might not be such a bad thing. When that rare occasion arises, Diaz will shoot for a low single leg, raise it high, and look to topple his opponent. Or, he'll transition into a double leg against the fence, which can be effective even though Diaz wrestles from his knees.
The most recent takedown Diaz landed was a vital one. In the fifth round of his interim title match up against Carlos Condit -- a close and controversial fight -- Diaz ducked one of his opponent's punches and secured a body lock. From there, Diaz kicked out his opponent's leg and transitioned onto the back. Overall, it was clearly a jiu-jitsu style of takedown, one that Diaz pulled off nicely.
Diaz's takedown defense is a constant question. It's clearly not one of the stronger aspects of his game, yet Diaz statistically has a pretty high defensive percentage and even managed to stuff a few of George St. Pierre's legendary double legs. At the same time, sometimes Diaz is thrown to the mat pretty easily.
One thing is clear though, Diaz is able to return to his feet very well. In order to get back up, Diaz will latch onto a kimura and turtle up. From there, he'll begin to stand, using the figure four grip to prevent his opponent from lifting and returning him to the mat. Diaz does this constantly and is often able to force his opponent to expend energy fighting off the position or getting Diaz back to the mat.
Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ)
Prior to being known as a boxer, Diaz was a submission specialist and had secured a number of tapout victories on the regional scene. In 2007, the elder Diaz brother was promoted to black belt under his longtime coach, Cesar Gracie.
For the most part, we see Diaz's jiu-jitsu when he's put onto his back. When he's not rolling into turtle and attempting to work up, Diaz has a very active guard game.
Just by taking a glance at Diaz's record, it's clear that he likes to attack his opponents' arms. When he's on the bottom, Diaz will constantly isolate an arm and then quickly rotate his hips under his opponent. Once he gets a good grip, he'll roll under his opponent, flip them, and then finish the arm bar. Furthermore, Diaz will use the kimura grip to transition into an armbar.
Of course, the most famous finish of Diaz's career was his gogoplata submission win over Takenori Gomi. Though notoriously low percentage and difficult to finish, the gogoplata is quite effective when done by an excellent, and flexible, grappler like Nick Diaz.
After wearing Gomi out by remaining conscious under heavy fire and then returning his own punishing blows, Diaz was dragged to the mat by the fatigued "Fireball Kid." As Gomi spun him down to the mat, Diaz already had an angle so he brought his leg up high. Then, he pulled his foot over Gomi's shoulder and tucked it underneath his opponent's chin. From there, he simply pulled down on the head, putting plenty of pressure on his opponent's neck.
In Diaz's most recent win, we got to see his defensive jiu-jitsu on display. After a still fresh BJ Penn hit a slick single leg takedown, Diaz tried to defend by cracking Penn down. Undeterred, Penn circled around and attempted to hop on his back, a position from which Penn is absolutely phenomenal.
Though Penn secured one hook, Diaz rolled up and prevented the second. Slowly, he worked his way out of the position and into his own half guard. Not long after, Diaz returned to his feet.
In short, Nick Diaz prevented/escape BJ Penn's back mount, a position which doomed elite fighters like Kenny Florian, Matt Hughes, and Jens Pulver.
Best chance for success
Crafting a fighter-specific game plan for Diaz is pointless.
The man knows one style of fighting and has only really built up his skills for his particular style. Regardless of whether it's a good decision, Diaz will walk Silva down this Saturday and try to throw his trademark combinations. In all likelihood, it will get him clipped by many brutal counter shots.
However, it's also Diaz's best, and probably only, chance for success. Perhaps Diaz will be able to overcome one of the sport's finest counter punchers with his insane volume and conditioning. Either way, Diaz's strategy will remain the same for this fight and any future bouts.
Will Nick Diaz overcome the odds and take out his middleweight foe, or will Anderson Silva return to the win column in dramatic fashion?